The Cellar

The Cellar (http://cellar.org/index.php)
-   Health (http://cellar.org/forumdisplay.php?f=33)
-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

henry quirk 04-10-2020 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanaC (Post 1050639)
So, do you really think this is overblown and not much more serious than seasonal flu?

Yes.

I think by April 30 this will be apparent.

I also think the doomsayers will claim it was mitigation that averted the Coronapocalypse. I think they'll know it wasn't, but they'll say it anyway. They'll have charts and clever dissections of the data and models to evidence their (face & career saving) claims. And their claims will get a huge amount of press. Equally reputable folks who dispute their claims with their own charts, clever dissections, and models will largely be ignored.

As usual: folks like me and you will be left to do our own research, reason through what we find, and draw our own conclusions.

As for here and now: As I reason through all this, ignorin' pressers and coverage and personalities and heart-string pullin' and scary predictions, lookin' just at numbers, I believe we're bein' hoodwinked.

henry quirk 04-10-2020 08:10 PM

And, yes, Glatt, if we all die from Fu ManFlu, I'll muster up my deceased courage and
 
admit my error, my hubris, my wrongness.

But, if I'm right, will you?

henry quirk 04-10-2020 08:44 PM

Death
 
https://www.indexmundi.com/clocks/indicator/deaths

xoxoxoBruce 04-12-2020 12:45 AM

As near as I can tell any critter can carry the virus just as packages and surfaces can, but it doesn't bother some animals and others it does. No virus bothers Bats and they carry all sorts of them which makes me wonder if they pick them up from their insect diet?

Dogs, cattle, pigs, domestic cats, tigers, lions, and pangolins can get sick.
Maybe buffalo, goats, sheep, pigeons, and civets.
Pigs, chickens, and mice are like bats.
These lists are constantly changing as there are a lot of people investigating this right now.

DanaC 04-12-2020 09:07 AM

@ Henry - London has had to build an entire emergency hospital and New York is digging mass graves. I don't recall the last flu season where that had to happen.

My sister in law is a community nurse, in fact she runs the local nursing team. She's worked through many a bad flu season, but this is different. The intensity of the outbreak and the fact that cases are so crammed into a tight timescale, coupled with the global nature of it which makes sourcing necessary supplies more difficult, makes for a very, very different situation.

sexobon 04-12-2020 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanaC (Post 1050728)
New York is digging mass graves. ...

Oh, they solved that problem: they're feeding them to the alligators in the sewers.

DanaC 04-12-2020 02:13 PM

Genius

Luce 04-12-2020 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry quirk (Post 1050646)
Yes.

I think by April 30 this will be apparent.

I also think the doomsayers will claim it was mitigation that averted the Coronapocalypse. I think they'll know it wasn't, but they'll say it anyway. They'll have charts and clever dissections of the data and models to evidence their (face & career saving) claims. And their claims will get a huge amount of press. Equally reputable folks who dispute their claims with their own charts, clever dissections, and models will largely be ignored.

As usual: folks like me and you will be left to do our own research, reason through what we find, and draw our own conclusions.

As for here and now: As I reason through all this, ignorin' pressers and coverage and personalities and heart-string pullin' and scary predictions, lookin' just at numbers, I believe we're bein' hoodwinked.

You seem to be making ideological statements rather than statements of fact or even informed opinion.

BigV 04-12-2020 07:32 PM

quoting, no, paraphrasing hq:
Quote:

my mind's made up, you all are going to present some stuff, it's going to contradict the sources I anticipate will confirm what I've already concluded, you guys are so dumb.
What ever dude. It's like that old playground meta-fight, "Well, my dad can beat up your dad!" I'm not here to persuade you. You are cold iron. Exempt. For the record, you're wrong, but exempt from my influence. The virus is also exempt, so good luck with that.

henry quirk 04-12-2020 11:06 PM

Dana,

I'll plow through numbers (just numbers) tomorrow. For now, I say only this: New York, New Orleans, etc. are in dire straits (cuz of pop density, pop composition, cosmopolitanism, resource management). Most of the world is not (at least no more than usual).

The numbers don't lie (they can only be accurate or inaccurate; this applies to current totals and subsets of those totals, no matter how arbitrarily defined those subsets are) ; local misery doesn't justify widespread lockdowns.

We've allowed *individual liberties to be constrained; allowed local, regional, state, national, world economies to be purposefully repressed, all to combat a nasty cold.

More tomorrow.

-----

Luce,

Lookin' only at numbers and drawin' my own conclusions is ideological, unfactual, and ill-informed?

Really?

We'll have to agree to disagree.

-----

V,

That ain't paraphrasin', that's flat-out lyin'. It's what I expect from He who only knows how to write, not from you.

You're right about one thing: I'm not here to persuade you..

Do your own research, reason through what you find, and draw your own conclusions.








*in the West where at least there's some lip-service paid to the idea; elsewhere, like China, where individual liberty is a pipe dream, folks are just eatin' the same old shit

Undertoad 04-13-2020 09:22 AM

Quote:

I'll plow through numbers (just numbers) tomorrow.
So far, you're posting covid numbers based on what happens when we socially restrict, and comparing them to flu numbers that happen when we don't. That is not very useful, and I suggest you don't do that.

The only numbers that actually matter are the R0 number and the death rate. R0 to tell us how communicative it is: the number of people that one infected person will also infect. Death rate to tell us how many people die when infected.

henry quirk 04-13-2020 11:45 AM

So far, you're posting covid numbers based on what happens when we socially restrict, and comparing them to flu numbers that happen when we don't. That is not very useful, and I suggest you don't do that.

All I've done is post numbers and comparisons made by Johns Hopkins. If you believe the numbers are in error, or the comparisons faulty, take it up with them.

However, you suggest I don't post those numbers or comparisons. It's your house, so: okay, I won't.

Aside: we vaccinate for the flu extensively, and still folks die, in LARGE numbers. Sophisticated vaccination programs vs a haphazard, honor system of social distancing.

Yep, okay, if you say so.

Anyway: I'll just keep my thinkin' on all matters virus to myself.

Undertoad 04-13-2020 12:42 PM

Quote:

It's your house, so: okay, I won't.
That's not how this place works.

henry quirk 04-13-2020 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050817)
That's not how this place works.

Then, I choose to no longer participate in virus conversation or debate.

There: all on me, nuthin' on you.

BigV 04-13-2020 01:06 PM

#Flounce


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:20 PM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.