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-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

Griff 03-09-2020 06:54 PM

1 Attachment(s)
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sexobon 03-09-2020 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048172)
Intentionally misquoted to misrepresent the point:

Quotes are accurate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048172)
What was posted:

A difference without a distinction.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048172)
Does not matter if people are contagious after symptoms are gone.

Illogical.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048172)
Facts that say why a quarantine cannot solve the problem.

Facts say quarantine can mitigate the problem (short term solution).

For problems such as this, there are often two solutions: a short term solution and a long term solution. The short term solution uses what is immediately available to make the best of a situation and reduce obstructive emotions (e.g. apprehension, fear, panic...etc.). The long tern solution is finding the definitive way to solve the problem.

But then I have the medical training, field and hospital experience, leadership training an experience to see the big picture. I can also separate medicine from politics.

I'm delighted to see that your opinions aren't prejudiced by any knowledge on the subject.

tw 03-09-2020 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048173)
That's why I said we need to take sides on whether the panic is worse, or the deaths.

We know information averts panic. Information from sources of integrity. CDC cannot even say anything without Pence's approval. That is a formula for distrust. An extreme example is panic.

If Trump wanted honesty, then the Surgeon General was doing what Pence is now doing. Trump does not want us to be informed.

We need facts. Answers to four essential questions (and a fifth one) are not provided. A president is obviously lying about Covid-19 - constantly. He is a prescription for panic.

What is a greatest threat to the Covid-19 virus? An informed public who then knows what to do.

Misinformation even recommends drinking diluted bleach. And using skin creams to block Covid-19.

Panic created by misinformation and lies is exactly what Russia wants. Some early indications are Russian sources (ie Sputnik radio broadcasts) are promoting such misinformation including those cures.

We need trusted facts. That cannot happen when the president lies constantly. He even said Covid-19 is a lie promoted by his enemies. Not his "competitors" or people with different information sources. He has a Nixon attitude. "Enemies". So creating panic is to this president's advantage. It can get him reelected. How curious. Hitler did same to obtain power.

tw 03-09-2020 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon (Post 1048178)
Facts say quarantine can mitigate the problem (short term solution).

That is not the point of that quoted sentence. It was quoted to intentionally misrepresent the point. Limbaugh and Fox News do that often.

Previous post explains, but again, the point. You intentionally ignore the point, again.

Irrelevant that a quarantine is part of a solution. That clearly was not the point. And was intentionally ignored. Obviously, quarantines are too little too late when people, without any symptoms and who cannot be tested (due to no test kits and a three day delay), were contagious and spreading this virus for at least a week.

Nice if you addressed the point. And not post distortions that you have now posted twice. Curious. That is the behavior of a Trump supporter.

sexobon 03-09-2020 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048180)
I know exactly what heíd tell you, lies. He was no different from any other dwellar in the Cellar, they were all extremists. I tried to run the thread properly, by the book, but they fought me at every turn. The other posters wanted to walk around with their emotions hanging out, thatís all right, let them. Take the low road, tit for tat, no more, no less. But they encouraged the others to go around scoffing at me, and spreading wild rumors about talking in circles and the old Mission Accomplished refrain. I was to blame for Undertoad's incompetence and poor judgement. Sexobon was the honest poster, but not TW. Ah, but the quotes, thatís, thatís where I had them, they laughed at me and made jokes, but I proved beyond the shadow of a doubt, and with geometric logic, that a duplicitous quote in the Coronavirus Thread did exist, and Iíve had reproduced that quote over a hundred times if they hadnít pulled the soapbox out from under me. I, I know now they were only trying to protect their sanity. Ö Naturally, I can only cover these things from memory. If I left anything out, why, just ask me specific questions and Iíll be glad to answer them, one by one.


glatt 03-09-2020 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 1048174)
.



I like these charts and get what they are trying to promote. The area under the curves, which is the total number of cases, looks equal in both curves. Is the red area of the steep curve supposed to show that those patients are more likely to die because there is no room for them in the hospital?

Griff 03-09-2020 09:50 PM

Yeah if fewer old-timers are sick in the same time-frame we have the capacity to care for them. If we pretend itís not serious and fail to take precautions the body count climbs. Little Gís boss spiked a fever and left work today... at a place where the kids are unlikely to handle coughs and sneezes appropriately.

Griff 03-09-2020 10:04 PM

Lol. Just got a text from her. They were just sanitizing the hell out of a residence feeling pretty good about themselves when one of the boys ďstraight up stuck his hand in the shift managers mouth.Ē

sexobon 03-09-2020 10:08 PM

Well I hope he doesn't put it in his own mouth after that!

glatt 03-09-2020 10:08 PM

Kids will be the death of us all.

Undertoad 03-09-2020 10:13 PM

Parents call them kids, we non-parents call them disease vectors :D

sexobon 03-09-2020 10:17 PM

That's why I get my flu shot in early October. So it will have full effect by Halloween when the little disease ridden monsters are out in force.

Clodfobble 03-09-2020 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad
If the regular flu kills up to 70,000, what say let's put the over-under for this level of panic at 80,000 dead. The panic has resulted in the loss of 6 trillion dollars in valuations of public companies, and the loss of who knows how much economic activity. So a number worse than the regular flu is warranted. 80,000, place your bets.

I like the numbers game, with two caveats. One, everything I've read says flu kills around 36,000 per year in the U.S., and I think we have to go with exclusively U.S. numbers if we're talking about U.S. panic. Two, the death toll from COVID-19 may take a year or more to fully assess, because this thing is going to continue to kill people, fast or slow, until we've achieved some level of herd immunity...

That being said, I personally think over 100,000 deaths means it was a problem worth focusing on as much as we have--roughly three times the rate of the normal flu. My actual prediction is that it's going to kill over a million Americans.


Edit to add: I say this as someone who lost an uncle to the bad flu season two years ago. I don't know if it was technically his cause of death in the final paperwork, but his downturn started with a bout of flu caught at his nursing home, escalating to pneumonia, compounded by Parkinson's.

Undertoad 03-09-2020 11:28 PM

Excellent additions: US-only, I should have specified.

100,000 is a nice round number. I'm taking the under

xoxoxoBruce 03-10-2020 12:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey (Post 1048135)
I don't think that the BATF does health effect studies, it's a law enforcement agency. If we're going strictly on name-of-agency criticisms, NIH might be a better match, just because it doesn't specifically have the word "disease" in its name.

NIH is getting half.

Undertoad 03-11-2020 02:14 PM

they did the math

http://cellar.org/img/covideventplanner.jpg

Flint 03-11-2020 05:47 PM

I am mildly alarmed, and processing something new..

I overheard my co-workers complaining about, in general, media hysteria over the coronavirus. Complaining about events being cancelled. Then it happened-- I heard, "The LIBERALS won't be happy until everything is shut down!" Followed by 10 minutes of complaining about LIBERALS and DEMOCRATS causing the coronavirus panic.

Folks, if you don't know, I work at in the healthcare sector. If people are treating a public health event as POLITICAL in nature, I'm afraid our civilization may have reached the point of no return. If not this, something, soon.

Undertoad 03-11-2020 08:01 PM

OMG. Yes. You just put on the They Live sunglasses and now you can see it too





now... didn''t want to tellya... but... look at your friends with the sunglasses on





it's infected everyone





politics makes us stupid

monster 03-11-2020 08:47 PM

All the universities here closed today. If we want to politicize and conspiracy theorize ....isn't it dictatorships who want an uneducated populace? ;)

Undertoad 03-11-2020 09:13 PM

It is the ideal time not to be employed at a business that serves large numbers of the general public.

monster 03-11-2020 10:16 PM

I'd take it over being unemployed, though. (well unless "it" was Macdonalds. Not there ....yet)

glatt 03-11-2020 10:23 PM

I just ordered a computer monitor and cable so I can have dual monitors at home if/when my firm closes. I can't do my job with just a single little 19 inch monitor.

I wonder if corona virus will reimburse me? Or Trump? Didn't he say something about freeing up money?

My daughter is home for spring break and has been told that break is going to be extended an additional week. (So far.)

We've been slowly stocking up on food, but with an extra mouth in the house, we need to get more. We have only about a week or two of food. It looks like a lot more than that though. 4 people eat a lot of food. We are running out of shelf space.

One admitted student college visit day for my son has been cancelled. The other school's day is in April and hasn't been cancelled (yet.) That one will likely cost us $1k in non-refundable plane tickets. We may visit anyway and walk around the closed campus. I was stupid though. Should have paid for the travel insurance on that one. I knew the virus was out there when I booked it.

Schools are still open. Work is still open. I'm still riding the Metro each day, but with roughly 1,000 cases in the US, and maybe 100 people in each metro car, there is only a 0.03% chance that I'll encounter one of them on any given ride, according to that chart above.

monster 03-11-2020 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glatt (Post 1048292)
I'm still riding the Metro each day, but with roughly 1,000 cases in the US, and maybe 100 people in each metro car, there is only a 0.03% chance that I'll encounter one of them on any given ride, according to that chart above.

cough a little and you'll soon have a carriage to yourself and reduce your chances?

monster 03-11-2020 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glatt (Post 1048292)
My daughter is home for spring break and has been told that break is going to be extended an additional week. (So far.)

mine gets spring break next week. They were told it was going to be one extra week, but now it's two...

And my sons' uni (which had spring break last week) cancelled everything for the rest of the week and is going online only for the rest of the semester starting Monday.

Of course my ditsy son broke his phone and spent hours playing games instead of ordering a new one so now can't access all the online stuff because it's dual factor authentication requiring a mobile phone..... sigh

tw 03-12-2020 12:10 AM

Apparently somebody kicked Trump in the balls and it activated some brain cells. So extremists are now worried.

Trump has finally decided to address this pandemic with the attitude that he needed two month ago when it was that obvious. Maybe Merkel's comments were short enough to attract his 30 second attention span. Base upon pathetic responses by so many world leaders, we can expect 60 to 70% of the world's population to eventually test positive for Covid-19. At somewhere between 2% and 3% deaths, how many people is that?

"Don't worry. Be happy", says Flint.

Trump finally let his medical people stop downplaying the seriousness of this pandemic. But one thing he clearly did not do. He did not address the missing 1 million test kits that are needed. Test kits that remain in short supply because he obstructed the necessary response two months ago.

Because this virus does not have high fatality rates, then it is more dangerous - spreads farther. Apparently without any indication for weeks.

This pandemic coincides with a rush on toilet paper. Did his speaking also cause a diarrhea epidemic? I understand he read from the teleprompter. Meaning he only said what he was told to say. So it should not have been that bad.

sexobon 03-12-2020 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glatt (Post 1048292)
Ö We've been slowly stocking up on food, but with an extra mouth in the house, we need to get more. We have only about a week or two of food. ...

Nawwww, an economical alternative is to simply order a copy of the Donner Party Cookbook.

xoxoxoBruce 03-12-2020 03:48 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Forgot I had this...

pause...

be-bop 03-12-2020 08:41 AM

My Good Lady thinks I'm being paranoid about the C virus, but hey I've won the raffle with the underlying conditions.
Diabetes, High Blood Pressure and Blood Clotting problems (I'm on Warfarin )
Well I suppose shit happens :D

xoxoxoBruce 03-12-2020 10:03 AM

At least you have proof you're not a rat. :thumb:

Flint 03-12-2020 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048309)
"Don't worry. Be happy", says Flint.

lol what?

Griff 03-12-2020 01:56 PM

He hasn't been reading for understanding lately.

BigV 03-12-2020 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 1048334)
He hasn't been reading for understanding lately.

parsing is bad, only whacko extremists do that

monster 03-12-2020 07:38 PM

and the schools are closed too. Parkrun is cancelled. Stores are full of people but empty of good (just escaped from one) Michigan is locked down. (third case announced)

Undertoad 03-12-2020 08:43 PM

WE BOUGHT $610 WORTH OF GROCERIES

I went and bought $260 and then I told J I forgot a few things and she went and bought $350 :lol:

Well there was no chicken whatsoever, raw or frozen, at any Montgomery County Wegman's, so she stopped at a Chester County one on the way home.

There was only whole wheat pasta :lol: even in an emergency people won't seriously eat that shit.

tw 03-12-2020 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon (Post 1048312)
Nawwww, an economical alternative is to simply order a copy of the Donner Party Cookbook.

They had plenty of time to write it. What else were they going to do while they waited? Write a good fiction novel?

tw 03-12-2020 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048353)
WE BOUGHT $610 WORTH OF GROCERIES

Never ceases to amaze how many get so emotional. Do you really think there will be no groceries until after this summer. This virus is expected to be around that long.

We are only trying to slow its spreading. Then time exists to avert damage created even by two months of doing nothing.

We can expect two out of every three people to be infected. If dealing with that reality, then numbers may be lower. But stocking for an apocalypse will not do much for a problem that will exist for many months. Early science suggest it will still be problem into August.

Quarantines slow a spreading virus. A virus that progresses slower means it can be confronted with more success. For example, a million plus test kits and laboratories, that should have been in production and construction two months ago, can be created.

Suddenly a dumb president finally admits that Covid-19 is a threat. Only then do so many realize the obvious? How many were so ignorant as to listen to his lies even last month? Then had plenty of time to stock what is necessary.

monster 03-12-2020 10:31 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Flattening the curve

Undertoad 03-12-2020 11:03 PM

Quote:

Do you really think there will be no groceries until after this summer.
Thomas,

We do expect groceries to be available. Wegmans has great logistics.

We also expect a very critical period over the next few weeks where we CAN visit stores, but really want to avoid it, as much as possible.

We did our shopping trip when there were 13 cases in the county. You'll do yours when there are 26, and again at 52, and again at 104, and again at 208.

Good luck.

tw 03-12-2020 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048363)
We did our shopping trip when there were 13 cases in the county.

Best time to shop is when stores are completely packed with shoppers? When waiting lines for checkout approached one half hour? I could not think of a worse time to shop.

Others today reported such waiting lines at 12:30, 2:30, and 5 PM.

Better time to shop is probably 2 AM. Then a virus has more than a few hours to die. Or in any of eight weeks earlier when this threat was obvious. Why suddenly most everyone in one day because a lying president finally admitted he was lying?

And why, of all things, toilet paper? One roll should last at least 60 man days. Does everyone literally waste a roll every week?

BigV 03-12-2020 11:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048365)
snip--

And why, of all things, toilet paper? One roll should last at least 60 man days. Does everyone literally waste a roll every week?

At last, now we all know why you're so full of shit.

Please, somebody, give this man a :bogroll:

xoxoxoBruce 03-13-2020 12:49 AM

1 Attachment(s)
You only need one sheet at a time...

Attachment 70014

Aside... both Tom Hanks and his wife tested positive, they are in Australia setting up to shoot a movie.

BigV 03-13-2020 12:53 AM

right. and you use the circle removed for your finger to clean under the nail.

#rimshot.

xoxoxoBruce 03-13-2020 12:57 AM

1 Attachment(s)
You got it...

Dude111 03-13-2020 07:12 AM

Quote:

Corona virus is stopped after racist and homophobix tweets from 2009 resurface
That would be nice....

Griff 03-13-2020 07:26 AM

1 Attachment(s)
*I know it hasn't been tested but it's a damn funny take.

monster 03-13-2020 09:38 AM

are all golf courses closed yet?

glatt 03-13-2020 10:30 AM

Literally every plan we had for this weekend has been cancelled.

So I just made camping reservations. Campfire and 'smores for the family, alone on the side of a mountain.

We have a favorite state park campsite that virtually nobody knows about and we always get it to ourselves. May as well isolate ourselves in beautiful scenery instead of going stir crazy.

Happy Monkey 03-13-2020 10:53 AM

DC is closing schools through the end of the month. I suspect my parents' babysitting duties are about to explode.

Undertoad 03-13-2020 11:12 AM

My informed Twitter is finding Chinese government media pushing two ideas. A) The virus originated in the US and B) China's helpful reaction gave the rest of the world time.

Both ideas are ludicrous on their face... but one party governments do what they do best.

glatt 03-13-2020 12:09 PM

Arlington County Virginia just closed their schools for a month.

Flint 03-13-2020 12:26 PM

Extended, two-week spring break for my kids' school district.

Today I am sure I have a cold-- sore throat, congested nose. I am staying home from work. I work at a hospital. I do IT work, but I'm there. I eat from the cafeteria, I use the bathrooms. I was already obsessive about hand hygiene, but I've been especially careful.

I know people in my small community who have medical conditions affecting their respiratory/immune systems. Hearing that I'll probably be okay but they might die is supposed to make me feel better.

Griff 03-13-2020 12:33 PM

Andrew Cuomo gave a speech in which he asked the Fed Gov to turn over testing to the State Gov. Strange times when I agree with AC about stuff but here we are.

glatt 03-13-2020 03:49 PM

It's official. I'm supposed to work from home for the next two weeks.

Flint 03-13-2020 04:20 PM

Another thing I overheard at work that I can't stop thinking about...
From one of the people complaining about the "liberals" and "Democrats" being the real problem:

"There only, like, 30 cases in the whole country!"

The next morning, the Governor of my state announces in a press conference that there are 19 cases in my STATE, and by the end of the broadcast, the announcer corrects that number with the new official number, 21 cases. By the end of the day the official number of cases in my state was up to 24 --almost as many as a guy working at a HOSPITAL in THIS STATE thought there were in the WHOLE COUNTRY. Because he's a Republican. I'm sorry, I don't mean to offend anyone, but that's the reason.

also, you know, the whole world ecosystem is destabilizing and the temperate zone for growing crops is going to shift to non-fertile soils, and border walls won't be able to hold back all the climate refugees, but that's a problem for :::checks notes::: also right now

Undertoad 03-13-2020 05:39 PM

Oh those are just the same old regular sunglasses

Flint 03-13-2020 05:50 PM

both sets of sunglasses can exist at the same time

I agreed with your original post, and it's something I think about all the time. In interpersonal affairs I once read [something like] when you get really upset at someone it represents that same part of yourself, that you don't acknowledge. This isn't true in every case (I don't think) but I always inwardly check myself with little prompts like, "do I do that same thing?"

Flash forward to politics, our self un-awareness is now this socially reinforced thing, and I think about that a lot, in no small part because of being exposed to your misanthropic centrism for all these years.

In short, how they treated Obama is exactly how we treat Trump, yet we'll dismiss how they treat the next guy, because it's how we treated Trump, without seeing the irony. My sunglasses are working just fine. If I let them prevent me from seeing things that are happening right in front of my face, that would be a problem.

Clodfobble 03-13-2020 07:24 PM

Had to go to the grocery store this morning to pick up a prescription. Toilet paper has been out of stock for 2-3 days at least, but today, at 8:30 in the morning, the store was so packed that all the checkout lines had backed up until they merged into one long line that snaked fully 1/3 of the way around the perimeter of the store.

Clodfobble 03-13-2020 07:30 PM

Also, the school hasn't yet committed to staying closed after spring break, but they announced that they have a plan in place for kids with no dedicated computer at home to check one out from the school if they close--and more tellingly, they instructed all the kids to take home all their books and notebooks from their lockers over the break just in case.

As I was picking up my kids' stash of lunch meds from the school (I told the nurse I'll bring them back if/when we return, but I can't afford to have a week's worth of their meds stuck inside a locked school when the insurance only lets me refill every 30 days), the nurse confided to me that we already have two families self-isolating because their parents work at Dell and had direct contact with the Dell employee who tested positive...

Undertoad 03-13-2020 08:07 PM

The very worst aspect of Trump is that he's a divisive person at a divisive time. That's precisely what we don't need - worst case scenario. Or, maybe it's exactly what we need because we need to rip the band-aid off. I can't tell.

~

In a divisive time you have to work harder to determine truth. Because both sides prefer exaggeration, lies, and bullshit narratives as it becomes more important to support *their* version of truth than the actual truth. Emotionally, the sides are more important to everybody. Nobody is invested in the actual truth. This is what we are seeing.

(What's worse is, post-modernism then suggests that everyone's truth is true, because everything is relative, and then we wind up in a hole that deeper than we dug.)

BigV 03-13-2020 08:30 PM

Trump is the victim (this time) of "post-modernism"?

LOL.

The very worst aspect of Trump.... That's a good one. It's a vigorous competition, but being divisive is an undercard bout at best. Fundamentally, he's a bad person. The traits he displays, embraces, claims as his own, are what make him a bad person. Divisive... pffft--that's just a side effect.


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