The Cellar

The Cellar (http://cellar.org/index.php)
-   Health (http://cellar.org/forumdisplay.php?f=33)
-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

henry quirk 03-14-2020 02:56 PM

everybody loves a map!
 
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

Clodfobble 03-14-2020 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry_quirk
222,000 flu cases and 22,000 flu deaths, in the US, so far.

1,864 carona cases and 41 deaths, in the US, so far.

22,000 flu deaths this season, which starts back in August/September. Meaning roughly 3,667 deaths per month.

Italy (which, by a number of expert estimations, is the situation we're headed for) just hit 250 coronavirus deaths per day, AKA roughly 7,500 deaths per month--assuming the rate doesn't go higher, which it is expected to do. That's on top of the 3,667 flu deaths per month that the hospital system is already dealing with.

It's not a question of how bad it is now, it's a question of how bad all the numbers indicate it's going to get. Once it gets bad, it's already too late.

monster 03-14-2020 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble (Post 1048457)
All y'all are being super patient with the "flattening the curve" explanations, but what Dude asked was why ONLY a month.

you're right, to me the curve thing makes it obvious the plan is not to make it disappear, merely slow it down so we can cope better, but I guess that needed spelling out.

The period might well get extended, but we can't all stay indoors for ever until it disappears completely/sufficiently/we have a reliable vaccine......

Some of us are unemployed right now so don't have an employer who will pay them to stay at home. Some work in jobs where their employer will go out of business if forced to pay them when they are not working. Those people will not be able to buy food, pay pills, might lose their houses and cars, AND THEIR HEALTHCARE (if they have any) There is a limit to the extent to which even the most community-minded can "take one for the team".

henry quirk 03-14-2020 05:11 PM

mole hills & mountains
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble
It's not a question of how bad it is now, it's a question of how bad all the numbers indicate it's going to get. Once it gets bad, it's already too late.

we shall see... 😐

Griff 03-14-2020 05:38 PM

Visual tracker of cases.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-us-cases.html

Schools are closed now. Some districts are feeding kids. I'm waiting for word from the county health departments on my gig.

Undertoad 03-14-2020 07:34 PM

The UK now goes the opposite direction, and keeps the schools open, in order to make sure that a good number of people are infected.

The theory is that they can manage the rate of infection this way, and quarantine once needed; get their health system to 95% capacity for a long while; as opposed to having a quarantine period now, only to have the infection rate rise quickly again once the period is over, or if it's seasonal. This way, they'll get to herd immunity faster, once (someone figured) 60% of the population is immune.

It's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for them.

tw 03-14-2020 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048502)
It's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for them.

A severe shortage of facts exist. Most decisions are based subjectively due to so few quantitative facts.

We learn from our mistakes. Each nation is currently performing an experiment. And we are the monkeys.

Ironically, even the Cellar monkey has better protection. But does he wash his hands? In a virtual world, does he care?

monster 03-14-2020 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048508)
Ironically, even the Cellar monkey has better protection. But does he wash his hands? In a virtual world, does he care?

She's washing them right now. Hence the weird expression -mentally singing the chorus to Toto's Africa. And wondering why in the fuck everyone assumes she's male.

xoxoxoBruce 03-15-2020 12:09 AM

Quarantine, isolation, no human contact, barbed wire(electrified), and a moat.
But what comes into your home every day?

Air, light, water, and Mail.
Election year pumps the junk mail numbers, plus I'll bet the mail order catalogs will bump some too.

Clodfobble 03-15-2020 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monster (Post 1048484)
Some of us are unemployed right now so don't have an employer who will pay them to stay at home. Some work in jobs where their employer will go out of business if forced to pay them when they are not working. Those people will not be able to buy food, pay pills, might lose their houses and cars, AND THEIR HEALTHCARE (if they have any) There is a limit to the extent to which even the most community-minded can "take one for the team".

Oh absolutely, a critical part of all this will have to be financial relief. Delayed mortgage payments, utilities, etc. with no penalties. City of Austin has already declared that no one's electricity is getting cut off while this is ongoing--not least because they anticipate they won't have staff available to go out and do the manual shut off anyway. Other cities have officially put residential evictions on hold. Shut down schools are offering free food to kids during the suspension, ostensibly for the ones who were on free breakfast/lunch programs, but they make it clear that no ID or anything else will be needed, just show up and get a box of free food Mon-Fri. Some are using school bus routes to avoid having people gather for food pickup, just drive the normal route at the normal time and slide a box out the door to any kid standing outside at their normal spot.

It's like, there's no point in repossessing a car that you can't sell because all the car auctions have been shut down, you know? The debt will rack up, and I doubt very many creditors will be outright forgiving anything, but putting people out on the street is exactly what they won't want to do.

Flint 03-15-2020 01:44 AM

But how will we pay for it?

xoxoxoBruce 03-15-2020 02:53 AM

"Just went to Seattle’s UW Medical Center to ask how much patients are being charged for a coronavirus test. $100-$500 if they have insurance. $1,600 if they don’t."

xoxoxoBruce 03-15-2020 02:58 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048502)
The UK now goes the opposite direction, and keeps the schools open, in order to make sure that a good number of people are infected.

The theory is that they can manage the rate of infection this way, and quarantine once needed; get their health system to 95% capacity for a long while; as opposed to having a quarantine period now, only to have the infection rate rise quickly again once the period is over, or if it's seasonal. This way, they'll get to herd immunity faster, once (someone figured) 60% of the population is immune.

It's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for them.

Lot of negative reaction, these two seem to be credentialed...

Attachment 70032

Japan has had their first reinfection.

Clodfobble 03-15-2020 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048468)
Really heartwarming and beautiful: Italians facing the quarantine are making music with each other, singing and playing tambourines from their balconies and windows!


Heh... There's traditional Italian classics, and then there's Italians singing "Bitch Better Have My Money" by Rihanna...

https://twitter.com/FENTYGEMlNl/stat...209098752?s=19

tw 03-15-2020 12:03 PM

The scumbag president suddenly (without any planning or warning) decided to separate immigrant kids from their parents. Without any means of reuniting them. And without any facilities to safely warehouse those kids.

The scumbag president suddenly (and without any planning or warning) decided to warehouse incoming airline passengers in tiny rooms awaiting medical checks. Without any means of protecting them from the one who might be Covid-19 contagious. In tiny rooms and hallways where all waiting arrivals are tightly together. Could not ask for a better way to spread a contagious virus.

That happens when 85% of all problems are traceable to a man with a 30 second attention span.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:54 AM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.