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-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

tw 02-28-2020 07:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luce (Post 1047463)
From what I gather, it's actually less dangerous on a case-by-case basis, but also more contagious.

Something like 2 to 3% die from this virus. Typical influenzas only kill 1.3%. That alone makes it more dangerous than other flues. Apparently it can also be spread by urine and feces. Even SARs was not spread by that method. Isolated people in their cabins (having no contact even with crew members) got sick on the Diamond Princess in large numbers. This one is clearly much more contagious than SARs. Maybe as contagious as Ebola.

We do not yet know of additional methods that can spread this disease. Only speculate that a two week quarantine is sufficient. No problem. Tests can only report one had the virus - not report if one is still contagious.

Medical people must wait for a naive politician to authorize us to have knowledge. That should be the Surgeon General's job. But he is not a right wing political extremist. His entire life has only been about medicine and health. Worse, he is black. So he might not be extremist enough.

Winter means a virus lasts much longer. Many viruses only last ten minutes if warm. But can remain intact for hours in a cold environment. Wet environments also prolong potency. That is the life expectancy of a typical virus. Unknown yet is the life expectancy of this virus. However a package shipped from China could only have degraded proteins - a threat to no one. The way customs works, it would sit around too long.

How much preparation has America done? Only 200 testing kits exist in one state. Only the CDC has labs that can test for it. Obviously, American should have been stocking tens or hundreds of thousands test kits in each state. And labs should have been constructed/expanded so that testing can be done at the county and state levels. But our government, at highest level, had been downplaying their inaction. Since it might impact his re-election. It is about image - not about protecting Americans.

An ostrich position was obvious. Even increased manufacturing of facemask was done only by a few manufacturers. Because the Federal government kept saying, "Don't worry. Be happy." Did not even start stocking them.

Americans might finally learn that America has done virtually nothing (except ask questions at immigration points). But the President has created a Czar as the only spokesman. He can silence all medical people at Federal and maybe at State levels. Job was assigned to a politician who has less experience in disasters that Brownie did in Katrina.

Somehow he will know what to tell us; what we need to know. Because he is loyal to a man whose long history is to lie. To harm all others - to advance only himself. So Pence can be trusted?

A man whose long history was to even stiff his contractors and employees. Right wing extremists also said that is good. So he knew two month ago what was good for us?

Make Urbane Guerrilla the Czar. He too is just as knowledgeable. Also has healthy ability to invent lies. Has a history of promoting fiction to advance an extremist right wing position. Since that (and not America) is most important. He also would silence medical people who expose extremist lies. Since that would be in our interest?

America is unprepared for a pandemic. Past two months were wasted by doing nothing. No problem. We now have a Czar so that informed medical people must get permission to explain a threat, what must be done, and to be helpful.

We can test for other influenzas. So one does not have Covid-19 if they first test positive for other influenzas - the assumption. Only if other tests are negative, then can one be tested by a scarce Covid-19 test kit. And then wait even longer for that kit to be shipped to the CDC - the only place it can be tested.

No problem. Pence (or UG) will then tell them whether they can inform your doctor. "Trust me. I am a right wing extremist who also said Saddam had WMDs."

tw 02-28-2020 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 1047502)
Yeah, we'd expect worse outcomes there.

Wuhan province is in central China. Not on the east side where air quality is inferior.

Wuhan is also a major transportation center - similar to what Chicago is in America.

Spexxvet 02-28-2020 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gravdigr (Post 1047459)
I have a gaming controller coming from China. I'm gonna soak the package down with Lysol before handling/opening it.

I'm wondering if it will get quarantined at some point along the way?

My friend does this with every delivery. He says he has to "wash the China off it"

Luce 02-28-2020 08:08 AM

The federal government refuses to take this seriously, even as tertiary cases are popping up in California.

https://apnews.com/57177e2e35d7d0d518361166935c614e

Quote:

Solano County Public Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas said public health officials have identified dozens of people — but less than 100 — who had close contact with the woman. Those people are quarantined in their homes. A few have shown symptoms and are in isolation, Matyas said.

Officials are not too worried, for now, about casual contact, because federal officials think the coronavirus is spread only through “close contact, being within six feet of somebody for what they’re calling a prolonged period of time,” said Dr. James Watt, interim state epidemiologist at the California Department of Public Health.
Dr Watt has already been proven wrong. Prior to saying that. As TW says above, it is already known that the virus can linger on surfaces for a very long time.

Undertoad 02-28-2020 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1047508)
Wuhan province is in central China. Not on the east side where air quality is inferior.

Sadly no. I look at the PM2.5 maps all the time

Greenpeace has a list of PM2.5 rank averages in 74 cities and Wuhan is 14th.

Real-time maps of PM2.5 have shown particulate matter DOWN in recent times. Here is windy.com's PM2.5 in China right now. But generally, in the recent past when you look at this map, it is deep orange over Wuhan. Greenpeace put the 2013 average at 88.7 (Beijing 90.1).

Compare with NYC's averages which are around 10.

The very worst air pollution in the world is India's, these days.

Happy Monkey 02-28-2020 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble (Post 1047504)
Plus, 68% of Chinese men are smokers, including 41% of male physicians. China accounts for slightly more than half of all smokers, worldwide.

That's not an issue according to the US's man in charge of coordinating our response. By his stats, less than 33% of smokers die of smoking-related illness, and less than 10% even get lung cancer!

Gravdigr 02-28-2020 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gravdigr (Post 1047459)
I have a gaming controller coming from China. I'm gonna soak the package down with Lysol before handling/opening it.

I'm wondering if it will get quarantined at some point along the way?

I just read it can live on surfaces for up to nine days.








Shipping, from China, was $1, btw.

xoxoxoBruce 02-28-2020 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1047516)
Real-time maps of PM2.5 have shown particulate matter DOWN in recent times.

Wuhan should be way down since the city has been in virtual shutdown for weeks with everyone ordered to stay home that hasn't been assigned a job.

Luce 02-28-2020 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey (Post 1047528)
That's not an issue according to the US's man in charge of coordinating our response. By his stats, less than 33% of smokers die of smoking-related illness, and less than 10% even get lung cancer!

Is he counting heart attack and stroke as smoking-related illnesses?

xoxoxoBruce 02-28-2020 03:17 PM

But smoking drives away biting insects which bring Malaria, Lyme, and stuff.

Happy Monkey 02-28-2020 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luce (Post 1047541)
Is he counting heart attack and stroke as smoking-related illnesses?

I have no idea where he got his statistics; I just thought it was remarkable that he thought that a 1/3 chance of death supported his "smoking doesn't kill" premise.

tw 02-28-2020 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gravdigr (Post 1047532)
I just read it can live on surfaces for up to nine days.

That would be unusual for a virus. And the problem. Since no such number has been reported from responsible sources. Even a two week quarantine is only a best guess. After two months warning, we still do not have any serious information. In part, due to top management totally ignoring it. The 'power that be' has only recently decided it is a problem ... because the stock market finally tanked.

This all goes right back to what Steve Bannon (Trump's top campaign manager) said in TV interviews. Trump's attention span is less than 30 seconds. His campaign was tapered around issues that a 30 second attention span could grasp. Obviously this virus was too complicated until the stock market crashed. Only then was he able to grasp that one "less then 30 second" fact.

Luce 02-28-2020 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey (Post 1047543)
I have no idea where he got his statistics; I just thought it was remarkable that he thought that a 1/3 chance of death supported his "smoking doesn't kill" premise.

Pence has always been a tool. Trashing Indiana's economy to show how much he hated the LGBT community comes to mind.

He's like something out of Dilbert, really.

Luce 02-28-2020 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1047545)
That would be unusual for a virus.

But not unheard of. The smallpox virus could survive for up to 21 days on a room temperature surface.

Under ideal situations, it could last for years.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2538235/

tw 02-28-2020 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luce (Post 1047549)
But not unheard of. The smallpox virus could survive for up to 21 days on a room temperature surface.

Which is why it was obvious two months ago - serious research was needed.

Which brings us right back to a concept well understood by people who come from where the work gets done. 85% of all problems are direct traceable to top management. In this case, a boss with a less than 30 second attention span. (As publicly stated by his close ally.)


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