The Cellar

The Cellar (http://cellar.org/index.php)
-   Health (http://cellar.org/forumdisplay.php?f=33)
-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

Undertoad 04-03-2020 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monster (Post 1050105)
Here, zipcode and ethnic stats show it's the poorer people who are getting infected

It's moving from the richer places to the poorer places; NY Times suggests this is because the poorer are not restricting their movement because many of them can't afford to stay home, and many of them are essential.

Undertoad 04-03-2020 03:36 PM

Breaking: Wuhan death toll was listed at 2,535; now re-estimated by Chinese authorities to be over 40,000

monster 04-03-2020 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050112)
It's moving from the richer places to the poorer places; NY Times suggests this is because the poorer are not restricting their movement because many of them can't afford to stay home, and many of them are essential.

Also, they're living right on top of one another. those zipcodes are full of blocks of tiny apartments and trailer parks crammed with tiny trailers

Griff 04-03-2020 03:50 PM

My current case load of kids includes 3 moms who are home health aides. These are very poor people who are pulling extra shifts because folks with resources are sitting home. We have the poor serving the old and infirm. I'm a supporter of keeping folks out of nursing homes if at all possible but this isn't going to go well.

Undertoad 04-03-2020 04:04 PM

My local example.

On 3/29, I noted:
Quote:

Lower Merion population: 59,000. lower-upper class to upper-upper class. Cases: 71

2 miles away, Norristown population: 35,000. lower-lower class to lower-middle class. Cases: 4
Five days later, today, 4/3:

Rich folk Lower Merion cases: 123. This area is doubling roughly every 8-9 days.

Working class Norristown cases: 12. The area is doubling roughly every 3 days.

Griff 04-03-2020 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050121)
Breaking: Wuhan death toll was listed at 2,535; now re-estimated by Chinese authorities to be over 40,000

National Review has reported that number.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/...und-the-clock/

Undertoad 04-03-2020 05:16 PM

OK I need to get a Post subscription to fully understand quickly breaking items. That was the Post's analysis, not a re-estimate by authorities.

Griff 04-05-2020 02:16 PM

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I don't know where they get data or who they are but the chart is interesting breaking things down by million population.

Undertoad 04-06-2020 09:15 AM

Most excellent update on the IHME models website which everyone is using

Overall US:
- # of deaths projected decreased from 93,531 to 81,766
- Projected total bed shortage went from 87,674 to 36,654
- Peak dates(April 15 for resource needed peak, 16th for peak daily death toll) unchanged
- Under 200 deaths a day: Moved from June 3 to May 18

Griff 04-06-2020 10:14 AM

Much better trajectory!

Luce 04-06-2020 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050112)
It's moving from the richer places to the poorer places; NY Times suggests this is because the poorer are not restricting their movement because many of them can't afford to stay home, and many of them are essential.


That might be worth remembering later.

Undertoad 04-06-2020 10:12 PM

Poor also have higher rates of co-morbidity problems for this disease: hypertension, obesity, diabetes, and they are more likely to be smokers

tw 04-06-2020 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050270)
Most excellent update on the IHME models website which everyone is using

Chart demonstrated one critical fact. Once major urban regions were locked down, then the acceleration of that curve slowed three weeks later. This infection requires at least two weeks to appear in victims.

So what happened when 'remain at home' orders are removed? A majority still do not have antibodies to protect them. And then, weeks later, many more are infected? And then, two weeks after that, those curves start climbing again?

Predictions do not discuss what will happen once everyone no longer remains isolated at home. Over 60% of us must suffer this virus and create antibodies before this pandemic ends.

monster 04-06-2020 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050313)
Poor also have higher rates of co-morbidity problems for this disease: hypertension, obesity, diabetes, and they are more likely to be smokers

:( also less likely to be well informed in the main. This is so.... aaaaargh.

monster 04-06-2020 11:56 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Attachment 70217


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:28 AM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.