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-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

Clodfobble 04-10-2020 07:34 AM

Yes. Same grade as Minifob, who knew him, though not well.

glatt 04-10-2020 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050538)
Sweden did not implement a lockdown. They have been considered the world's guinea pig in what might happen if you just go about your business

It's beginning to look like that was a mistake... compared to next door Norway which did lock down.

I do not believe this graph includes today's numbers...

Sweden... 721 new cases, 112 new deaths

Norway... 144 new cases, 7 new deaths

http://cellar.org/img/swedennorway20200409.jpg

But then there's the long run. Their goal was to reach herd immunity quickly. Let's see how it works out for them...

If somebody wanted to follow those numbers, where would they find the source of your graph?

Happy Monkey 04-10-2020 11:32 AM

The logarithmic graph actually minimizes the difference. At first glance, I thought the Cases/Day line wasn't as different in scale as I would have thought (though, of course, the direction change was the important thing).

Undertoad 04-10-2020 11:42 AM

The graph came out of my firehose feeds out there... but the raw country-level stats are collected at Worldometers covid page.

henry quirk 04-10-2020 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050599)
The graph came out of my firehose feeds out there... but the raw country-level stats are collected at Worldometers covid page.

Puerto Rico retracted 1 death previously reported on April 9

In an honest world: we'd see a whole whack of retractions, now and in the future, but it ain't so we won't.

xoxoxoBruce 04-10-2020 01:35 PM

Why would we see "a whole whack of retractions", are you saying you don't believe the numbers?

henry quirk 04-10-2020 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce (Post 1050612)
Why would we see "a whole whack of retractions", are you saying you don't believe the numbers?

I think mebbe some of the numbers comin' out of some locations are inflated, yeah.

I can't prove it.

Chalk it up to my mean-spirited, suspicious nature.


But why would anyone inflate (infection, death) numbers, Henry?

Money, it's a hit
Don't give me that do goody good bullshit

Flint 04-10-2020 02:46 PM

money how?

Undertoad 04-10-2020 03:13 PM

Most interesting to compare the current IHME models for...

Sweden - pop. ~10M, projected 13,259 deaths
Denmark - pop. ~5.5M, projected 1,575 deaths
Norway - pop. ~5.5M, projected 925 deaths
Finland - pop. ~5.5M, projected 226 deaths

Sweden has 79 ICU beds available and the model says they will need about 3400. :thepain:

These are just models, and we can't predict the future accurately, and we don't know what the situation will be long run... still,...

xoxoxoBruce 04-10-2020 03:15 PM

1 Attachment(s)
How does that work in India...

Happy Monkey 04-10-2020 03:18 PM

Any list of actual deaths will be an undercount, due to the lack of testing. Puerto Rico is an undercount, as there are certainly more than one person who died of it that wasn't tested for it.

Estimates may be over or under, depending on the model, but tallies will be under.

henry quirk 04-10-2020 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey (Post 1050633)
Any list of actual deaths will be an undercount, due to the lack of testing. Puerto Rico is an undercount, as there are certainly more than one person who died of it that wasn't tested for it.

Estimates may be over or under, depending on the model, but tallies will be under.

Global infections numbers are low: if we could get an accurate account I'm bettin' way more folks were infected and were asymptomatic.

Global death numbers could be low cuz, for example, China is a lyin' sack commie fest who lie just about everything...

...or...

...global death numbers could be high cuz some of those deaths had nuthin' to do with wu flu complications.

Global recovery numbers are low cuz, again, I'm bettin' way more folks were infected and were asymptomatic.

Locale numbers (infections & deaths) I'm bettin' are inflated, by a little or by a lot, I can't say.

-----

money how?

How is political process.

Why is greasin' the squeaky wheel (or, if you prefer, ...to each according to [claimed] need).

Happy Monkey 04-10-2020 03:43 PM


Lots of stuff in this podcast relevant to this thread and the COVID politics thread.

DanaC 04-10-2020 03:43 PM

So, do you really think this is overblown and not much more serious than seasonal flu?

sexobon 04-10-2020 04:19 PM

Weeding out complications...
 
Quote:

Smoking weed and coronavirus: Even occasional use raises risk of COVID-19 complications

If you're smoking weed to ease your stress during the coronavirus pandemic, experts say it's time to think twice.

Smoking marijuana, even occasionally, can increase your risk for more severe complications from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

"What happens to your airways when you smoke cannabis is that it causes some degree of inflammation, very similar to bronchitis, very similar to the type of inflammation that cigarette smoking can cause," said pulmonologist Dr. Albert Rizzo, chief medical officer for the American Lung Association. "Now you have some airway inflammation and you get an infection on top of it. So, yes, your chance of getting more complications is there." ...
The bad news is: y'all gonna die. The good news is: you probably won't be stressed out about it.


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