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-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

tw 03-09-2020 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luce (Post 1048134)
Getting a flu shot is never a bad idea, but it is pretty much useless against the coronavirus.

Medicine must predict what flues will be active almost one year in advance. And then design a flu shot only for those particular viruses.

Current flu shot was not designed for this virus. Nobody knew it was coming until a (now dead) doctor in China discovered it. Flues typically do not spread this fast - are not this contagious. So a vaccine is not possible for about a year or maybe longer - despite lies from a president who is loved for constantly lying.

tw 03-09-2020 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048142)
So, we'll have to agree on levels of deaths vs levels of panic, ...

Panic is created by a lack of honest information. And by social media where people cannot bother to learn facts before posting their emotions.

Death rate from a conventional flu is typically 1.3%. Death rate from Covid-19 is somewhere between 2 and 3%. In China, they are claiming 3.4%. Well they have more experience. But also have a problem with first obtaining honest data. But that much higher death rate is another reason for honest concern. And why it was obvious in the beginning of January that this virus was a serious threat.

It even killed the doctor who discovered it.

Happy Monkey 03-09-2020 03:03 PM

"Corona flu" is Trump's term for it; it's a different virus from the flu.

Avoiding a panic is more than just saying "don't panic" (sorry HHGTG), or "lots of people get better while going to work"; panic is also a failure. The problem with news reports about Trump's antics isn't the reports, it's the antics. To prevent panic, Trump should detail the pandemic preparation that is in progress, to demonstrate that such preparation exists in the short term, and in the long term to prevent sudden panic if it is sprung on people at the last minute, in the case that it needs to go into effect.

tw 03-09-2020 03:53 PM

From a Paper made available to the CDC about 12 Feb 2020:
Quote:

Originally Posted by https://academic.oup.com/ije/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ije/dyaa033/5748175
Results: Inadequate risk assessment regarding the urgency of the situation, and limited reporting on the virus within China has, in part, led to the rapid spread of COVID-19 throughout mainland China and into proximal and distant countries. Compared with SARS and MERS, COVID-19 has spread more rapidly, due in part to increased globalization and the focus of the epidemic. Wuhan, China is a large hub connecting the North, South, East and West of China via railways and a major international airport. The availability of connecting flights, the timing of the outbreak during the Chinese (Lunar) New Year, and the massive rail transit hub located in Wuhan has enabled the virus to perforate throughout China, and eventually, globally.

Conclusions: We conclude that we did not learn from the two prior epidemics of coronavirus and were ill-prepared to deal with the challenges the COVID-19 epidemic has posed. Future research should attempt to address the uses and implications of internet of things (IoT) technologies for mapping the spread of infection.

Science was discussing this threat two months ago. Trump, using his 30 second attention span, ignored it until the Stock Markets finally started crashing.

MERS was another coronavirus that remains undetected for two years. Its death rate was about 32%. A higher death rate and other factors are why the pandemic did not become global - a greater threat.

One reason why Covid-19 is not as widespread: Chinese published the genetic map of Covid within eight days of identifying it (at higher levels). Published those facts in the first half of Jan 2020. One reason why it did spread was noted earlier. Wuhan is the Chinese equivalent of Chicago.

Apparently one factor that must exist to limit widespread infection is a negatively pressurized room. Apparently this virus can spread by other factors beyond droplets - ie sneezing and coughing. Mistakes, since learned, resulted in an 18% to 20 some percent death rate from other coronaviruses among medical personal.

Possible infections via ventilation systems and other means has not been mentioned - and should be. Since we need such facts - to even avoid panic.

We could have been making face masks months ago. Face mask is to protect others. But the Feds did not act. 3M, Prestige, and other facemask companies only started hiring people and increasing production last week. Only after the government was finally given permission by a president to address it. Only after stock markets crashed.

Griff 03-09-2020 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey (Post 1048147)
"Corona flu" is Trump's term for it; it's a different virus from the flu.

Avoiding a panic is more than just saying "don't panic" (sorry HHGTG), or "lots of people get better while going to work"; panic is also a failure. The problem with news reports about Trump's antics isn't the reports, it's the antics. To prevent panic, Trump should detail the pandemic preparation that is in progress, to demonstrate that such preparation exists in the short term, and in the long term to prevent sudden panic if it is sprung on people at the last minute, in the case that it needs to go into effect.

It's my understanding that he was elected to wreck shit.

I actually contract with county health depts in my current gig. We've always wiped and washed materials and avoided sharing across kids. Now the shelves are empty of alcohol based wipes... Cuomo has the slav.. prison labor making alcohol sanitizers. I half expect home visits to end at some point, possibly when the local schools start closing. We still don't know enough to say it's panic time or stupid to panic. Last I read it was only known to spread by air but we really don't know do we.

glatt 03-09-2020 04:40 PM

Just got a phone call from my boss.

She is taking a survey of all of her staff's ability to work from home.

So they are making lists.

Flint 03-09-2020 04:44 PM

Wow.

Griff 03-09-2020 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glatt (Post 1048157)
Just got a phone call from my boss.

She is taking a survey of all of her staff's ability to work from home.

So they are making lists.

Separating staff is useful so you don't lose an entire office out sick. Some companies are splitting into on and off site groups even if they can't work from home.

Undertoad 03-09-2020 05:08 PM

Quote:

Possible infections via ventilation systems and other means has not been mentioned - and should be. Since we need such facts - to even avoid panic.
Exactly: we need facts we don't have, in order to avoid panic!

(Since it's not proven whether ventilation systems can transmit it -- but like my CDC text noted, most cases are from close contact of 6 feet or less)

glatt 03-09-2020 05:09 PM

Another random thought...

I got an email from our priest on Thursday afternoon, that a new policy at church is: no more dipping the bread into the chalice of wine at communion because of dirty fingers. But sipping from the cup was still allowed. Or you could decline altogether, and that's cool too.

At the service on Sunday, two days later, she made an announcement retracting the Thursday communication because a mandate had come down from the Bishop of Virginia. No wine. Bread only.

So then I read in the paper today (Monday) that there is a different priest in DC who was hospitalized, and tested positive on Thursday for the virus. That priest had given communion the previous Sunday (which presumably includes drinking first from the communal cup). He felt healthy when he gave communion and was symptom free, but felt like he had a mild cold a few days before that, from which he recovered. Mid-week last week, after giving communion, he crashed hard and went to the hospital, where he tested positive for Covid-19. He likely picked it up at a conference he attended in the Midwest two weeks ago.

The communal cup has always seemed gross to me, and I have always been bread dipper. But I'm glad they are cutting out the wine entirely.

The thing in all this that leaves the biggest impression on me is that the church, which is built on 2 thousand years of tradition, reacted extremely quickly as soon as the risk became obvious. Sick priest in neighboring jurisdiction on Thursday, and edict from Bishop on Saturday impacting services on Sunday.

We are also not supposed to shake hands during the peace. Fist bumps instead.

sexobon 03-09-2020 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048123)
Quarantine does not solve the problem.

It's never been a choice between solving the problem in its entirety or doing nothing. Partial solutions like quarantine can have a huge impact on morbidity and mortality. There's no vaccine for coronavirus which is why we have to do everything we can to contain it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048123)
Apparently people are contagious even before they have symptoms. ...

That's the way it is with the cold, flu and other viruses. That doesn't mean you do nothing to stop further transmission after the disease presents symptomatically; or, is identified through testing beforehand. People are also contagious for awhile after the disappearance of symptoms.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luce (Post 1048126)
How'd that work out in Japan?

Doesn't matter. When done properly, it works. Doing it improperly doesn't invalidate the procedure.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luce (Post 1048134)
Getting a flu shot is never a bad idea, but it is pretty much useless against the coronavirus.

It may improve the healthcare you receive for coronavirus. Flu prevention helps keep the Flu's burden on the healthcare system down in case the number of coronavirus patients goes up. That's why the Flu shot is being recommended.

tw 03-09-2020 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048164)
Exactly: we need facts we don't have, in order to avoid panic!

Week after that CDC report was published (almost a month after preliminary facts from that report were known), the scumbag president said a Covid-19 threat was "over blown". He accused his enemies of inventing a threat - as any head of a communist party would also do. He said only 5 people had the virus. And expected that number to drop to one.

Of course he was lying. Science said so. But that meant honesty. This scumbag president and his supporters have contempt for honesty.

That is a leader averting panic? Exactly why Russians are openly campaigning for that lying Don. How to create panic? Lie. Destroy credibility. Create confusion and doubt. Encourage wild and extremist accusations on social media. Trump is doing that. The Russians love it.

Patriotic Americans know he lies constantly - multiple times daily according to domestic and international news services. Then entrenched extremists become even more entrenched. Russians want the resulting dissension. Confusion. Panic.

We need honest facts. Can people who know those facts tell us the truth? Of course not. The Don needs us to stay ignorant. If working for America, then a responsible and educated man was put in charge: Surgeon General. That is his job. But a Surgeon General would state things based in honesty and science.

Trump wants a man who will lie incessantly. So he assigned VP Pence the job of keeping us informed - and ignorant.

How is panic created? When a leader is so corrupt as to lie, then truth (and trust) cannot exist. When he assigns a political extremist the job of stifling facts and lying (to get Trump reelected), then panic is more likely.

He even lied about the Grand Princess. He said straight out, he did not want the number of Covid-19 infected people to double. A classic business school graduate. He is only worried about the numbers. Not about reality.

Grand Princess passengers should have been quarantined in locations where a coronavirus does not spread. Instead, that president wants a virus to remain trapped at sea where is will spread from tens to a thousand people. Then his numbers look better. He can blame the resulting deaths on some other nation. Classic example of a man with a 30 second attention span and no ethics. Who knows he can murder someone on 5th Ave and still get elected. He knows who in America he can lie to.

Four necessary questions remain unanswered. We need those answers to avoid panic. Access to knowledge must wait for VP Pence to decide "if we can handle the truth".

sexobon 03-09-2020 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glatt (Post 1048165)
The communal cup has always seemed gross to me, and I have always been bread dipper. But I'm glad they are cutting out the wine entirely. ...

They should replace it with lime juice.

I've heard that some like lime in their Corona.

tw 03-09-2020 06:40 PM

Intentionally misquoted to misrepresent the point:
Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048123)
Quarantine does not solve the problem.

What was posted:
Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048123)
Quarantine does not solve the problem. Apparently people are contagious even before they have symptoms.

The point ignored by a reply.
Quote:

Experience aboard the Diamond Princess suggests that this virus can spread airborne. Not just from contact spewed from an infected person. But this is an even greater problem.
We don't know how it spreads. Or those facts are being withheld by a VP whose job is to spin things for political advantage.

Does not matter if people are contagious after symptoms are gone. Currently irrelevant. Required is to detect people BEFORE symptoms exist. That is a problem. Because only 200 test kits were available (and not being produced) when clear was a threat that required maybe a million or more.

First, one was tested for other flu viruses. And then retested; to wait another three days for results from Atlanta. Only 200 test kits were available. Meaning infected people remained undetected for up to a week. A week after they had be contagious maybe a previous week.

All this takes so long because a scumbag president even claimed this threat was "over blown". His exact words. He stifled actions to get ahead of the threat. His own words say so.

Facts that say why a quarantine cannot solve the problem. Especially if this virus survives well past summer - as some scientists have been asking (before Pence took over). Another point relevant to a sentence taken out of context.

Another question. Once one has recovered, is he immune from another infection? We need answers - not political lies. Apparently we "cannot handle the truth".
Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon (Post 1048169)
Flu prevention helps keep the Flu's burden on the healthcare system down in case the number of coronavirus patients goes up.

A valid point.

Undertoad 03-09-2020 06:49 PM

We all know that if the Presidential reaction was heavy over-reaction, then the tw reaction would be that it was an unnecessary and expensive over-reaction.

Orange man bad; so, just take the opposite of orange man, always good.

That's why I said we need to take sides on whether the panic is worse, or the deaths.

If the regular flu kills up to 70,000, what say let's put the over-under for this level of panic at 80,000 dead. The panic has resulted in the loss of 6 trillion dollars in valuations of public companies, and the loss of who knows how much economic activity. So a number worse than the regular flu is warranted. 80,000, place your bets.


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