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Breaking: Wuhan death toll was listed at 2,535; now re-estimated by Chinese authorities to be over 40,000
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My current case load of kids includes 3 moms who are home health aides. These are very poor people who are pulling extra shifts because folks with resources are sitting home. We have the poor serving the old and infirm. I'm a supporter of keeping folks out of nursing homes if at all possible but this isn't going to go well.
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My local example.
On 3/29, I noted: Quote:
Rich folk Lower Merion cases: 123. This area is doubling roughly every 8-9 days. Working class Norristown cases: 12. The area is doubling roughly every 3 days. |
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https://www.nationalreview.com/news/...und-the-clock/ |
OK I need to get a Post subscription to fully understand quickly breaking items. That was the Post's analysis, not a re-estimate by authorities.
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
I don't know where they get data or who they are but the chart is interesting breaking things down by million population. |
Most excellent update on the IHME models website which everyone is using
Overall US: - # of deaths projected decreased from 93,531 to 81,766 - Projected total bed shortage went from 87,674 to 36,654 - Peak dates(April 15 for resource needed peak, 16th for peak daily death toll) unchanged - Under 200 deaths a day: Moved from June 3 to May 18 |
Much better trajectory!
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That might be worth remembering later. |
Poor also have higher rates of co-morbidity problems for this disease: hypertension, obesity, diabetes, and they are more likely to be smokers
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So what happened when 'remain at home' orders are removed? A majority still do not have antibodies to protect them. And then, weeks later, many more are infected? And then, two weeks after that, those curves start climbing again? Predictions do not discuss what will happen once everyone no longer remains isolated at home. Over 60% of us must suffer this virus and create antibodies before this pandemic ends. |
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