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-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

monster 04-07-2020 01:23 AM

African Americans disproportionately likely to be affected in USA

tw 04-07-2020 11:15 AM

That BBC article also discusses, on 27 March, the cruise ship Zaandam. That ship and the other mentioned ship, Rotterdam, remain adjacent and docked in Fort Lauderdale.

Some cruise ships are still operating.

Undertoad 04-07-2020 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1047516)
Real-time maps of PM2.5 have shown particulate matter DOWN in recent times. Here is windy.com's PM2.5 in China right now. But generally, in the recent past when you look at this map, it is deep orange over Wuhan. Greenpeace put the 2013 average at 88.7 (Beijing 90.1).

Compare with NYC's averages which are around 10.

6 weeks later, The Times is on it!

NY Times: New Research Links Air Pollution to Higher Coronavirus Death Rates

(LOL, the NY Times story doesn't mention the PM2.5 numbers in Wuhan, or anywhere in China for that matter. It only mentions the relative numbers in NYC.)

Undertoad 04-08-2020 09:19 AM

Two days later, most excellent update on the IHME models website which everyone is using

Overall US:
- # of deaths projected decreased from 93,531 to 81,766 to 60,415
- Projected total bed shortage went from 87,674 to 36,654 to 15,852
- Peak dates (April 15 for resource needed peak, 16th for peak daily death toll) down to April 13/12
- Under 200 deaths a day: Moved from June 3 to May 18 to May 16

New speculation is that the disease resembles high altitude sickness, and docs are on their way to developing a way to fight it with the new details they have found. One possible outcome is that respirators may be the wrong approach.

henry quirk 04-08-2020 10:53 AM

John Hopkins 4-8-20
 
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases

*Infections: 1,447,466

*Deaths: 83,471

*Recovered: 308,215

-----

*World Population: 8,000,000,000









*approximate

henry quirk 04-08-2020 10:59 AM

John Hopkins 4-8-20
 
Infections

COVID-19: Approximately 1,446,557 cases worldwide; 399,929 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 8, 2020.

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths

COVID-19: Approximately 83,149 deaths reported worldwide; 12,911 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 8, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

glatt 04-08-2020 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry quirk (Post 1050420)
Infections

COVID-19: Approximately 1,446,557 cases worldwide; 399,929 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 8, 2020.

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths

COVID-19: Approximately 83,149 deaths reported worldwide; 12,911 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 8, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

Wait. So the flu has 12,000 death in a slow YEAR, and Covid has 12,900 death in a MONTH, and you think they are about the same, even though the Covid deaths are occurring while we are all under lock down?

I guess we'll all know in March 2021 if Covid was worse in a year than the seasonal flu. Do you think you'll have the courage to admit when you are wrong?

sexobon 04-08-2020 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glatt (Post 1050423)
even though the Covid deaths are occurring while we are all under lock down? ...

The flu deaths are occurring even though we have a vaccine.

tw 04-08-2020 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon (Post 1050424)
The flu deaths are occurring even though we have a vaccine.

Wrong vaccine or wrong flu? Who do we blame?

sexobon 04-08-2020 11:53 AM

Old people.

glatt 04-08-2020 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon (Post 1050424)
The flu deaths are occurring even though we have a vaccine.

Good point.

henry quirk 04-08-2020 02:12 PM

12,900 death in a MONTH

That's the total deaths, not monthly.


Do you think you'll have the courage to admit when you are wrong?

Will you?

Happy Monkey 04-08-2020 02:43 PM

It's only been a bit over a month since the first US COVID-19 death.

henry quirk 04-08-2020 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey (Post 1050452)
It's only been a bit over a month since the first US COVID-19 death.

True. My time sense is flummoxed.

However...

There had been at least 23,000 U.S. deaths related to the flu as of 3-14 (the most recent count I could find from the CDC).

Flu season lasts about 13 weeks and usually ends by April, meaning the season runs from January to March.

So: 23,000 flu deaths in two and half months; 12,911 wu flu deaths in a month.

Flint 04-08-2020 04:20 PM

Since people are fascinated by comparisons to the flu, remember-- we do everything we can in response to the flu.

Every year, as a healthcare worker, you MUST get a flu vaccine or you are NOT ALLOWED to show up to work. Employee health will send you home and dock your pay. For the general public-- an awareness campaign of "get your flu vaccine" is broadcast to the public by every means possible, and you can go to the pharmacy, drugstore, many places to get the vaccine.

That's because we HAVE a vaccine for the flu. That's the tool we have.

For coronavirus, we are using the tools we have. It's the exact same thing-- the exact same response. A full-court press using the best tools available.

The best takeaway is that the flu response should be MORE robust-- we should focus MORE on hand hygiene, we should do MORE* to make sure workers are not showing up sick. If we are serious about public health, we could reduce the flu deaths.

*anything


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