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-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

Luce 04-13-2020 08:56 PM

This is one of those "correlation does not equal causation" moments.

Luce 04-13-2020 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050807)
So far, you're posting covid numbers based on what happens when we socially restrict, and comparing them to flu numbers that happen when we don't. That is not very useful, and I suggest you don't do that.

The only numbers that actually matter are the R0 number and the death rate. R0 to tell us how communicative it is: the number of people that one infected person will also infect. Death rate to tell us how many people die when infected.


This is why I always read Undertoad's posts.

Undertoad 04-14-2020 02:12 PM

Don't do that, I am often wrong.

I usually accept corrections though

DanaC 04-14-2020 05:24 PM

Oh for the love of FSM ... Just in case things weren't fucked up enough, these dicks:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52281315

Quote:

The UK's mobile networks have reported a further 20 cases of phone masts being targeted in suspected arson attacks over the Easter weekend.

Trade group Mobile UK said it had been notified of incidents in England, Wales and Scotland.

One of the targeted sites provides mobile connectivity to a hospital in Birmingham.

The figure represents a lower incidence rate than had been the case the previous weekend.

Mobile UK added it had received no reports of staff being targeted over the period.

Attacks on 5G masts pre-date the coronavirus pandemic. But there are concerns a surge in the amount of vandalism has been caused by conspiracy theories, which falsely claim the deployment of 5G networks has caused or helped accelerate the spread of Covid-19.

"Theories being spread about 5G are baseless and are not grounded in credible scientific theory," said a spokesman for Mobile UK.

Quote:

The chief executive of Vodafone UK added that one of the targeted sites serves Birmingham's Nightingale hospital.

"It's heart-rending enough that families cannot be there at the bedside of loved ones who are critically ill," wrote Nick Jeffrey on LinkedIn.

"It's even more upsetting that even the small solace of a phone or video call may now be denied them because of the selfish actions of a few deluded conspiracy theorists.

Griff 04-14-2020 05:41 PM

My guess is the conspiracy nuts are being played by folks with an anti-Chinese tech agenda.

tw 04-14-2020 07:33 PM

Quote:

The UK's mobile networks have reported a further 20 cases of phone masts being targeted in suspected arson attacks over the Easter weekend.
You didn't hear. Trump blamed it on UK using evil Huawei hardware. It must be true!

Just another part of the China disease.

Luce 04-14-2020 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050901)
Don't do that, I am often wrong.

I usually accept corrections though

I didn't say you're always right, I meant you say things worth reading.

You and I are diametrically-opposed politically, but you can't just listen to your own side.

And in this case you are absolutely correct.

sexobon 04-14-2020 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanaC (Post 1050906)
Oh for the love of FSM ... Just in case things weren't fucked up enough, these dicks: ...

Those rascals from Torchwood Four have finally shown themselves again.

Undertoad 04-16-2020 05:28 PM

Victory Mindset GO

Stat: Early peek at data on Gilead coronavirus drug suggests patients are responding to treatment

Quote:

The University of Chicago Medicine recruited 125 people with Covid-19 into Gilead’s two Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those people, 113 had severe disease. All the patients have been treated with daily infusions of Remdesivir.

“The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We’ve only had two patients perish,” said Kathleen Mullane, the University of Chicago infectious disease specialist overseeing the Remdesivir studies for the hospital.

Clodfobble 04-16-2020 07:14 PM

Previous studies have put the death rate for severe cases at 50%. 2/113 = 1.8%. Not a bad decrease, if it can be replicated.

Griff 04-16-2020 10:07 PM

Hope is good.

xoxoxoBruce 04-16-2020 11:34 PM

I noticed the death rate for Philadelphia County is 1.8%.

The adjoining Counties in PA;
Delaware 3.1%
Chester 3.8%
Montgomery 3.3%
Bucks 3.9%

And across the river in New Jersey;
Burlington 3.6%
Camden 3.1%
Gloucester 2.3%

In PA the 2nd ring of counties;
Lancaster 3.0%
Berks 2.2%
Lehigh 1.3%
Northampton 2.1%

I think the flaw in this is nobody knows how many are infected.

limey 04-17-2020 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce (Post 1051051)
I noticed the death rate for Philadelphia County is 1.8%.

The adjoining Counties in PA;
Delaware 3.1%
Chester 3.8%
Montgomery 3.3%
Bucks 3.9%

And across the river in New Jersey;
Burlington 3.6%
Camden 3.1%
Gloucester 2.3%

In PA the 2nd ring of counties;
Lancaster 3.0%
Berks 2.2%
Lehigh 1.3%
Northampton 2.1%

I think the flaw in this is nobody knows how many are infected.


The flaw in just about all of the death rate figures is that nobody knows how many are infected.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Undertoad 04-17-2020 07:49 PM

That information will be coming in

This study from Santa Clara County did antibody testing on a random set of people on April 3 and April 4... Results were only published today, April 17, which shows how long it takes to get everything right.

In order to show that everything we think we know, may be wrong again (although this may not be a great study, they recruited their subjects via Facebook ads!)

Quote:

the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.

Conclusions

The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.

Undertoad 04-18-2020 05:19 PM

People smarter than me are pointing out that it's not just sampling, but the reliability of the test itself that makes this study questionable

10,000 MLB employee survey coming up


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