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piercehawkeye45 05-30-2011 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman (Post 737337)
Do they have anything the US or its allies wants? If not they'll get about as much help from us as Syria. :/

It might not be "what can they offer us" but a more Pakistan style "there could potentially be serious damage to the US if Yemen falls into a civil war". Yemen is a terroristic hotspot right behind Af-Pak.

Fair&Balanced 05-30-2011 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45 (Post 737412)
It might not be "what can they offer us" but a more Pakistan style "there could potentially be serious damage to the US if Yemen falls into a civil war". Yemen is a terroristic hotspot right behind Af-Pak.

Agreed.

Both strategic issues and the different geo-political issues for each country in the Middle East that come into play, as much or more than "what they can offer us."

classicman 05-30-2011 05:48 PM

So what you are saying is that the US will be calling for the leaderships ouster or resignation and then bombing soon after they decline?
Color me skeptical.

Fair&Balanced 05-30-2011 06:36 PM

That is not what I said at all.

We have been bombing al Queda targets in Yemen for the last two years, but that is not really issue regarding the current crisis over the removal of Saleh.

The US strategic interest as well as the geo-politics in Yemen should guide our further actions. Yemen is the poorest and probably the most tribal country in the region, where we have little influence.

Our strategic interest is that the popular movement in Yemen not become just a front for al Queda, which many indicators suggest is the case.

As to removing Saleh, it is in the US interest to let Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council lead in that effort in a way that does not threaten the region. It is in their interest that al Queda does not gain a greater foothold, something they dont want to see either.

Spexxvet 05-31-2011 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman (Post 737337)
Do they have anything the US or its allies wants?

Sand?

classicman 05-31-2011 11:00 AM

exactly - all they'll get from the US is a lot of talk.

See post #19 for confirmation.

Fair&Balanced 05-31-2011 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman (Post 737532)
exactly - all they'll get from the US is a lot of talk.

See post #19 for confirmation.

Or we could be more aggresive in forcing the president of Yemen out of office and strengthen al Queda, which already has considerable influence in the "populist" movement, in which the US is not very popular. :rolleyes:

classicman 05-31-2011 11:40 AM

I find it rather interesting that the situation in Libya has gotten virtually ZERO press as of late.

Fair&Balanced 05-31-2011 11:56 AM

Zero press means fewer massacres taking place. A stalemate is not a bad thing from the perspective of the side with fewer resources (ie the rebels/populists).

While at the same time more goverrnment leaders defect (5 more generals yesterday) and more pressure is put on Ghaddafi to leave, including from the president of South Africa who was in Libya yesterday.

All with the US in a background role which is in everyone's best interest.

classicman 05-31-2011 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fair&Balanced (Post 737543)
Zero press means fewer massacres taking place.

Not necessarily. One would hope so, but less coverage doesn't necessarily equal fewer massacres.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Fair&Balanced (Post 737543)
A stalemate is not a bad thing from the perspective of the side with fewer resources (ie the rebels/populists).

I dunno - A stalemate doesn't seem ideal to anyone.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Fair&Balanced (Post 737543)
While at the same time more goverrnment leaders defect (5 more generals yesterday) and more pressure is put on Ghaddafi to leave, including from the president of South Africa who was in Libya yesterday.

didn't see that anywhere.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Fair&Balanced (Post 737543)
All with the US in a background role which is in everyone's best interest.

Agreed

tw 05-31-2011 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fair&Balanced (Post 737543)
Zero press means fewer massacres taking place. A stalemate is not a bad thing from the perspective of the side with fewer resources (ie the rebels/populists).

No press also means very important and necessary actions are taking place among Libya's future leaders. They are learning what is necessary to create a democratic type government. And to respect legitimate authority.

Many Libya rebel units had no leadership. Or had multiple leaders who gave contradictory orders. The previous supreme military commander (a former Libyan general and American college professor) has been replaced by a civilian equivalent of a Secretary of Defense.

As stated earlier, a long and tortuous rebellion is one the best things that could happen to the rebels. So that necessary respect and structures so important for 'planning for the peace' can be established and appreciated. So that so many factions that once only had one thing in common (a hate for Kaddafi), will now have respect for their current allies and once former adversaries.

A year long war could be a good thing for long term Libyan health. Those important accomplishments (ie nation building) would not be front page stories.

classicman 05-31-2011 09:54 PM

or they might be pissed at those who may have offered assistance "behind closed doors" they didn't deliver... Who knows. certainly none of us. Fun postulating though.

Fair&Balanced 05-31-2011 11:12 PM

It has been interesting following the national conservative response to US policy and actions in Libya.

For the most part, Obama has either done too little (the McCain,William Kristol camp) and the US should always take the lead with a greater military presence rather than ceding it to NATO and we should be bombing more aggressively or we should never have gotten into Libya in the first place (the Scarborough, George Will camp).

The few who support the policy (Romney camp) do so but question Obama's leadership. Evidently, leadership requires greater personal visibility rather than a more nuanced behind the scenes approach by influencing both the military and political response by remaining in the background and letting NATO lead the military response and the Arab League and African Union lead the political response.

TheMercenary 06-01-2011 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman (Post 737337)
Do they have anything the US or its allies wants? If not they'll get about as much help from us as Syria. :/

Maybe they will form a unified Pirate Navy, then they may have our ships.

TheMercenary 06-01-2011 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fair&Balanced (Post 737543)
Zero press means fewer massacres taking place.

:lol: Really? How'd that work out for Rawanda and subsequently The Congo in the years afterwards?


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