Yesterday's track put it over Suffolk County Long Island. Today's track puts it back on Nassau County - maybe skirting Queens. Difference between a bad storm and a major disaster can be that fine.

The 1938 Hurricane through Providence, Rhode Island did not have a name. And was disastrous, in part, because nobody knew it was coming every after it had devastated Long Island. It was a wakeup called for the Weather Service.

I saw pics from my parents as children from that Hurricane.
We were actually looking at some of them a couple weeks ago when my nieces were in town.

Residents in east coast US states should be very concerned. Even neighbors of the cellar should be taking precautions. Irene has taken a more western path. Got into warmer water. The new projection puts it atop the entire Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts. That would mean less storm power to harm NYC. And destructive winds even in Pennsylvania.

East coast Americans should have their preparations completely by Friday night (NC) or Saturday (NJ) in part because a new projection says this storm will also move much slower; do more damage. This one should not be taken lightly. I don't think I have seen a more threatening storm on the so unprepared parts of the east coast in 30 years. NJ and NYC are very vulnerable due to complacency. NJ has not had a hurricane in over 100 years.

These things usually move east at the last moment. But informed residents learn you must prepare for seven to not be harmed by the eigth.

Predictions have moved a little west, Delaware (home of tax-free shopping, and the Cellar) and south New Jersey are now more in the target for extended tropical force winds. Jersey shore may see >60 MPH winds.

Numerous friends have homes on the barrier Islands of Cape May County. Already traffic has been heavy outgoing on the Garden State Parkway. None were able to get to their homes; to prepare them for a blow. Probably all barrier islands will be flooded. Flooding will probably be at least 6 feet higher than any previous storm has done.

Barrier island towns will be blocking incoming access on Friday. Orders are to evacuate the county. No exceptions for anyone east of Route 9. That will take 36 hours.

Some maps. Cape May County is from Cape May to Ocean City and Woodbine. The nearest safe evacuation locations are in Vineland and Millville. Everything south and east of that has flood risks.
[Cape May County

Examples of responses from other counties.

Rehoboth Beach, Dewey Beach, and Fenwick Island are part of Sussex County, Delaware. This county has not been taking the storm as seriously. Did not call for a mandatory evacuation until late Thursday night. Still have not defined evacuation centers. Most of the outgoing traffic only has three roads - Routes 1, 28, or 54.
Map of Sussex County

Sea Bright NJ is the most northern of NJ barrier island towns and part of Monmouth County. Located just across from the Atlantic Highlands and Rumson (home of Bruce Springsteen). Residents need only go to Atlantic highlands to be 100 feet above the water. Most of the town is dependent on a 30 foot high rock seawall that has been routinely overwashed during major storms. Sea Bright will flood. However a storm that passes off shore will drive a major tidal surge into a box that include NYC, Lower NY Bay, the Raritan River, and Sandy Hook Bay. Flooding should back up into rivers behind Sea Bright. That can mean flooding as far west of Rumson as in Red Bank. Therefore the nearest evacuation centers are even farther west (inland) of Red Bank and the Garden State Parkway in Holmdel.

Between Cape May and Monmouth Counties are the home of New Yorkers pretending to be Jersey Shore residents (ie Snookie). Ocean County barrier islands include Seaside Heights, Surf City, and Barnegat. This county has no mandatory evacuations except for the barrier islands after Friday. No evacuation centers have been announced. This county appears to be least concerned.

Some landmarks and names to better understand future news reports on what may or may not be a catastrophic storm.

The maps right now are looking a bit better now for the DC region. It's tracking a bit east again, so instead of looking at probable 50 MPH winds, it's looking more likely that we'll be getting 30 MPH winds or so. Keep veering east baby. Others can have the bragging rights of dealing with the fierce hurricane. Give me those wimpy winds.

*fingers crossed*


The NC Outer Banks are doomed though.

Recently spotted in MSN:

come on, Irene:

yeah... i know... just go with it

Bukkake?

One of Lil' Griff's teammates was singing that at field hockey last night in honor of the coming storm.

Anyone in the world can now watch Irene futilely try to take out the Cellar:
Irene

for some really perverse reason I want it to take out NYC.

If, as, when Irene comes along - please check in guys over there. I want to know you're all OK, hey?