The Cellar - The economy is BACK

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- - The economy is BACK (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=4238)

Actually, the reservists don't have much to worry about regarding job security.

Re: Re: Re: The economy is BACK

Quote:

Originally posted by OnyxCougar

Dubya came to NC to tell us how great the economy is looking, in a state with double digit unemployment, and where my husband put in no less than 50 applications before getting a temp job at a Pharmeceuticals plant. This includes WalMart, the fast food joints, the college, temp agencies, anywhere that had a sign up or an ad in the paper, word of mouth, and the Unemplyment Agency. So Dubya can stick it in his ass. As far as this part of NC is concerned, the numbers lie.
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He can't afford for the economy to pick up in the South for the next 4 years. The other reason, besides patriotism, for the high rate of armed forces volunteerism in the South is the use of the armed forces as 'employer of last resort'.

With the army pounding sand in Iraq, everyone who signs up knows where they will be for the next 12 months. If recruitment levels fall too low, then the US faces the real prospect of reinstituting the draft. If that happens, especially while Bush or a Republican successor is in office, the the Democrats can retake Congress on a 'see what happens when you have a Republican president and Congress at the same time' platform.

*rap version* The Grand Ole Party needs Good Ole Boys. Show the flag and hand them war toys. Give a rebel yell and bring up the noise. Smile real nice and pat on the back. The Good Ole boys gonna rock Iraq.

Sorry about that, I have Musicmatch online pumping out George Thorogood. It effects my critical thinking.

Rich, that money hasn't reached the economy yet; any effects of that money will be seen in the economy next year.

Anyone who considers the effect of war on the economy should consider that this was not "war" by the definition the economy needs. This was dropping a bunch of stuff on a few people. We will have to build more stuff to drop on the next ones, but that can take a while.

Quote:

These figures are an artefact, probably will disappear in the revised data a month from now.

Well, yes and no. The figure of 7.2% was revised allright, but it was revised upward to an astounding 8.2%!

We are in a recovery cycle. The downturn was managed reasonablly well. As much as a juggernaught like our economy can be influenced.

Couple of things to remember:
The economy lost a shitload of value, on paper.
People/busineses are still gun-shy.
Hiring is being spread over multiple economies (China, India, Mexico, etc).
The end of the world is not nie. Economies adapt, they just do it more quickly than mother nature, so sucesses, and fuck ups are heavily magnified.

Business spending is up, and will continue to be up. Production is starting to max out, and overtime is picking back up. Hiring is already picking up, slowly.

Real economic improvement will be seen in Q2 '04. Hiring will begin in earnest in Q3. It will be late '05 to mid '06 before the economy is out of the recovery cycle. Until then, we will still be digging ourselves out.

This is all subject to change, if some collective shit hits the fan. Terrorist attacks, trade issues (esp with the Pacific Rim), the bullshit in Europe is just that.

Phwah, don't think you're anywhere near out of the woods yet. Continual outsourcing will make this an utterly jobless recovery even if the recovery can be sustained which is doubtful. Our desire for cheaper and cheaper shit is now fucking us up the arse and rightly so. Prepare to see the start of the long and rocky road to global weath equity. First the manufacturing went overseas, now the white collar work is starting to take the same route. Trade protectionism may win Bush some votes but it won't keep the jobs over there for long.

Enjoying globalisation yet?