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-   -   What do you KNOW? (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=14532)

LabRat 06-22-2007 04:44 PM

I know that everytime in my life so far I thought I would never get through something, I always have.

theotherguy 06-22-2007 04:59 PM

I know I want to go home right NOW.
I know there is something better out there than this job.

kerosene 06-22-2007 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HLJ (Post 357688)
But what good artist isn't?

Good? I have to be good? Oh great, now I am worrying again. ;)

kerosene 06-22-2007 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HLJ (Post 357739)
I'm pretty sure that if I keep riding my motorcycle at 100 mph something bad will happen.

Yeah, a traffic jam on I-70. :D

HungLikeJesus 06-23-2007 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by case (Post 358048)
Yeah, a traffic jam on I-70. :D

Yes, it's always good to think of secondary consequences. I'll slow down.

skysidhe 06-23-2007 03:08 PM

I know I need to get off my butt!

beauregaardhooligan 06-23-2007 09:07 PM

All I know is everything I know is wrong.
I was right, everything I know *is* wrong!
Wait a minute,
that's wrong.
Right?

Sundae 06-23-2007 09:14 PM

I know the cool kids are in Gabbly right now
The ones who are actually here I mean (plenty of cool kids not logged on)

Pie 06-23-2007 09:33 PM

I know I'm going to get porked on the basis of my speeding ticket no matter what I do.

PS: Any advice on a 21-mph over the limit ticket from VA? I live in NJ and a 4-pointer might kill my rates. Should I show up in Botetourt County Court to plead my case? (First moving violation in 11 years of driving, I was driving a V6...)

xoxoxoBruce 06-23-2007 11:04 PM

I've gotten many out of state speeding tickets and always pay them immediately. I've never heard a peep out of PA about them.

HungLikeJesus 06-24-2007 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by case (Post 358048)
Yeah, a traffic jam on I-70. :D

You must be psychic:

DENVER - Denver Police say a motorcyclist was killed on I-70 Saturday night.

Police say the rider was speeding down I-70, near the Harlan Ramp, around 7 p.m.

Police say the motorcyclist lost control and hit a guardrail.

He was pronounced dead at the scene.

I-70 was closed for two-and-a-half hours because of the accident.

kerosene 06-24-2007 09:27 PM

Woah, that is a little strange. I am sorry for the motorcyclist. :(

HungLikeJesus 06-25-2007 12:03 AM

Just to confirm, that was not me. I am still here - and if I smear myself on I70 I will personally let you know.

Flint 06-25-2007 12:16 AM

I see dead people.

Gaelic Ninja 06-25-2007 02:31 AM

I know that the Internet is serious business

Crimson Ghost 06-25-2007 03:49 AM

As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know
We don't know.

But... you have to remember...art is art...but on the other hand water is water...and east is east...and west is west...and if you stew cranberries like applesauce, they taste much more like prunes that rhubarb does...

Griff 06-25-2007 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce (Post 358327)
I've gotten many out of state speeding tickets and always pay them immediately. I've never heard a peep out of PA about them.

I know that the little bribe pocket on the old PA licences was the perfect place to keep extra beer money.

jester 06-25-2007 09:54 AM

I know it's a beautiful day in the neighborhood, today.;)

Uisge Beatha 06-25-2007 11:04 AM

I know i had a good time at the drink experiment party. :)

I also know I had too much to drink, too darn quickly. I proved I could still get hammered in a couple of hours and worry I was about to get sick. I'd like to apologize to SG, monster, Cloud and everybody else I didn't say goodbye to when I took off. :o

Clodfobble 06-25-2007 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crimson Ghost
As we know,
There are known knowns...

I keep seeing this Rumsfeld quote all over the place, as if it's supposed to make him foolish... but I have no problem with it, it's a completely accurate statement--and despite the logical complexity of it, he didn't even flub any of the words. Do people really not understand what he's saying, or do they just think it's funny to see the same word so many times in a sentence?

glatt 06-25-2007 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble (Post 358776)
I keep seeing this Rumsfeld quote all over the place, as if it's supposed to make him foolish... but I have no problem with it, it's a completely accurate statement--and despite the logical complexity of it, he didn't even flub any of the words. Do people really not understand what he's saying, or do they just think it's funny to see the same word so many times in a sentence?

I think it's mildly amusing just because it's so convoluted. The first time I saw it posted, it was offered as an example of him being dumb. I listened carefully to it, and like you I thought he made sense. But he could have said that while we have some idea what's going on, we don't know it all. It would have been much simpler. I'm actually impressed that he said it with no mistakes. I'm not sure I could.

Happy Monkey 06-25-2007 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble (Post 358776)
it's a completely accurate statement--

So is any tautology. He was running down the clock on the interview, saying nothing. Sorta like saying that he knew where the WMDs were - around Baghdad, or north, south, west, or east of it.

There, he was trying for a tautology, but got nabbed by the WMDs not actually existing. Sorta the only way he could have been wrong.

kerosene 06-25-2007 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HLJ (Post 358549)
Just to confirm, that was not me. I am still here - and if I smear myself on I70 I will personally let you know.

Glad to hear that.

By the way, have you noticed the odd but beautiful sunsets these last 2 nights? I walk outside and the light is a greenish gold.

zippyt 06-25-2007 11:13 PM

I know there is Only 2 currently active Test Truck ( 65 K worth of truck for testing truck scales ) drivers in our shop out of a crew of 8 , this IS TOOOOO few , I have to drop what I am doing , drive 3-4 hours ONE WAY , load into the truck , drive it , do the job , then go BACK to what I was doing WAY TOOO OFTEN !!!!

WA ,WA ,BITCH , Moan ,CRY !!!!

Crimson Ghost 06-26-2007 04:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble (Post 358776)
I keep seeing this Rumsfeld quote all over the place, as if it's supposed to make him foolish... but I have no problem with it, it's a completely accurate statement--and despite the logical complexity of it, he didn't even flub any of the words. Do people really not understand what he's saying, or do they just think it's funny to see the same word so many times in a sentence?

I didn't post it to start a Rumsfeld discussion.
I posted it because the thread is called "What do you know?"
I found the Rumsfeld quote to be, at first glance, confusing, but if you thought about it for a moment, it makes perfect sense.
I now have it printed out and hanging above my desk.

I also used it to segue into the Groucho Marx quote, which, in and of itself, is absurdist logic in it's finest form.

HungLikeJesus 06-26-2007 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by case (Post 358844)
Glad to hear that.

By the way, have you noticed the odd but beautiful sunsets these last 2 nights? I walk outside and the light is a greenish gold.

Yes. We're in a canyon and the trees on the opposite side have been lit by that light.

LabRat 06-26-2007 01:15 PM

I know I embarassed my boss today, because he turned deep scarlet :blush:

I invented a model of secondary brain injury that I dubbed the 'poke' model. (Will come up with something a little more scientific for the journal article) Anyhoo, my boss just came up to me and said " Are you available tomorrow for a poking?" I said, totally straight faced, "Yes, but I'll have to ask my husband if it's OK." He turned red and said "I probably wouldn't be wecome at your house anymore." I said, "As long as I got a raise after you would be". He got even redder. I made him forget what he was going to say, heh heh heh.

It was a hoot.

Cloud 06-26-2007 02:38 PM

I know it's wrong to teach your children to hate.

I know it's wrong not to educate your girls.

I know it's wrong to execute a family member for "honor."

BigV 06-27-2007 01:19 PM

From DoD website transcript, 06 June 2002

Quote:

Q: Regarding terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, you said something to the effect that the real situation is worse than the facts show. I wonder if you could tell us what is worse than is generally understood.

Rumsfeld: Sure. All of us in this business read intelligence information. And we read it daily and we think about it and it becomes, in our minds, essentially what exists. And that's wrong. It is not what exists.

I say that because I have had experiences where I have gone back and done a great deal of work and analysis on intelligence information and looked at important countries, target countries, looked at important subject matters with respect to those target countries and asked, probed deeper and deeper and kept probing until I found out what it is we knew, and when we learned it, and when it actually had existed. And I found that, not to my surprise, but I think anytime you look at it that way what you find is that there are very important pieces of intelligence information that countries, that spend a lot of money, and a lot of time with a lot of wonderful people trying to learn more about what's going in the world, did not know some significant event for two years after it happened, for four years after it happened, for six years after it happened, in some cases 11 and 12 and 13 years after it happened.

Now what is the message there? The message is that there are no "knowns." There are thing we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know. So when we do the best we can and we pull all this information together, and we then say well that's basically what we see as the situation, that is really only the known knowns and the known unknowns. And each year, we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns.

It sounds like a riddle. It isn't a riddle. It is a very serious, important matter.

There's another way to phrase that and that is that the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. It is basically saying the same thing in a different way. Simply because you do not have evidence that something exists does not mean that you have evidence that it doesn't exist. And yet almost always, when we make our threat assessments, when we look at the world, we end up basing it on the first two pieces of that puzzle, rather than all three.

Yes, sir.
Here's the quote, in context. You may draw your own conclusions, but I think its' just a long winded way of avoiding the question. The reporter asked, "You said things were worse than the facts show. Tell us what is worse." Rumsfeld said "Ok. We don't know." That's not answering the question. That's trying to baffle 'em with bullshit. FUD. Fear Uncertainty and Doubt. Let's parse his answer in an effort to understand what he said.

Rumsfeld's statements.

BigV paraphrase and interpretation.


Rumsfeld: Sure.

"Ok, I'll answer your question." Not a lot to interpret here. Except that he doesn't answer the question. Rumsfeld himself is famous also for saying "Don't answer the question you've been asked, answer the question you wish had been asked". I paraphrase, but this is an example of him following his own advice.


All of us in this business read intelligence information. And we read it daily and we think about it and it becomes, in our minds, essentially what exists. And that's wrong. It is not what exists.

"We read intel, and then decide that what we read is truth. But we're wrong to make that conclusion." Here Rumsfeld states his case. He will try to support it in a minute, but I would point out here that this is the moment when he transfers our attention from the question asked to the question he wishes was asked.


I say that because I have had experiences where I have gone back and done a great deal of work and analysis on intelligence information and looked at important countries, target countries, looked at important subject matters with respect to those target countries and asked, probed deeper and deeper and kept probing until I found out what it is we knew, and when we learned it, and when it actually had existed. And I found that, not to my surprise, but I think anytime you look at it that way what you find is that there are very important pieces of intelligence information that countries, that spend a lot of money, and a lot of time with a lot of wonderful people trying to learn more about what's going in the world, did not know some significant event for two years after it happened, for four years after it happened, for six years after it happened, in some cases 11 and 12 and 13 years after it happened.

"Sometimes we find out later that we had an incomplete understanding of the truth. This happens despite our best efforts. Sometimes the missing pieces are important, and sometimes they're not known until years later." Here Rumsfeld supports his case, "Our conclusions are not 'the truth'" by saying that our intelligence, upon which we based our conclusions, was incomplete.

So far we have:

"Ok, I'll answer your question. We read intel and draw conclusions. But conclusions are ideas, not reality. We have found that our conclusions are based on incomplete intel."

Back to his words.

Now what is the message there?

Rumsfeld will now try to tie together his evidence in support of his original statement.

The message is that there are no "knowns."

Pretty unambiguous.

There are thing we know that we know.

Which he immediately uses to contradict himself. This is "the first thing". It is also unambiguous, and fairly reasonable. Most people "know" some things.


There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we now know we don't know.

This is "the second thing". Also unambiguous, also fairly reasonable. Most people know of things that they don't know.

But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.

This is "the third thing". It is a little more abstract, and it sounds unusual, but it's not weird or wrong. It's a way of saying "ignorant", something we all share to some degree, something we're all familiar with. It's only slippery in that we are often unaware of our ignorance.

So when we do the best we can and we pull all this information together, and we then say well that's basically what we see as the situation, that is really only the known knowns and the known unknowns. And each year, we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns.

"We base our conclusions on what we're sure we know and what we're sure we don't know, but we don't know what we're missing."

Right. Just like everyone else in the whole world does, every day. Proceed with what you know and keep your eyes open. Duh.

It sounds like a riddle. It isn't a riddle. It is a very serious, important matter.


"You're confused, but I'm not and it's important, so believe me." This is his argument, his conclusion. "I said things were uncertain. You should believe me." WTF?!

There's another way to phrase that and that is that the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. It is basically saying the same thing in a different way. Simply because you do not have evidence that something exists does not mean that you have evidence that it doesn't exist. And yet almost always, when we make our threat assessments, when we look at the world, we end up basing it on the first two pieces of that puzzle, rather than all three.

Rumsfeld says "We're unsure as to the incompleteness of our understanding of things." Now, how does that answer the question? It does not. He does not answer the question. But he sounds profound doing it, and that buys some time and space.

Yes, sir.

"Next!" Whatever.

Cloud 06-27-2007 01:27 PM

not picking up on any personal knowledge here, just yammering

BigV 06-27-2007 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cloud (Post 359335)
not picking up on any personal knowledge here, just yammering

??

Are you suggesting that I'm just yammering? You don't understand what I'm saying?

Cloud 06-27-2007 02:03 PM

yes, I'm suggesting you're yammering. As far as I can tell (from reluctantly scanning those long posts) you are talking about some other people's opinions.

Which is okay with me, of course-- you can say anything you want. But I would rather here from YOU, not read some confused--yeah, yammering. What do YOU know?

glatt 06-27-2007 02:23 PM

You don't like it when the threads you start drift away from you original intent, do you Cloud?

BigV was commenting on the Rumsfeld thread drift that started a few days ago. He wasn't yammering at all.

Cloud 06-27-2007 02:27 PM

oh, I don't really care, honestly. Drift all you want.

I'm constantly a-drift.

BigV 06-27-2007 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cloud (Post 359354)
yes, I'm suggesting you're yammering. As far as I can tell (from reluctantly scanning those long posts) you are talking about some other people's opinions.

Which is okay with me, of course-- you can say anything you want. But I would rather here from YOU, not read some confused--yeah, yammering. What do YOU know?

Since you asked so nicely...

glatt is correct. I have plenty of information in that post about what *I'm* thinking. As with most of my posts, you have to read a lot to get it, though. I tried to keep the different voices easy to distinguish with the color coding. The material in the gray box is the direct quote from the press conference when Rumsfeld uttered the (in)famous "Unknown unknowns" remark. *I* talk (at length) about what I think about his statement. Something you may not yet know about me is that I consider context important, so I included the question he was responding to and his complete answer.

I then talk about his answer. I color coded his words in red, and my paraphrasing and interpretation of his remarks in blue. The words in black (not in the quote box) are all mine. Those are my thoughts, which I freely share with you.

Respectfully, I beg to differ. I am not yammering. If you want to know what I know, how I think, read my posts.

xoxoxoBruce 06-27-2007 02:36 PM

Don't waste your time V, Cloud's not interested in thinking, just posting.

Cloud 06-27-2007 02:38 PM

okie dokie. I will gladly read your posts. The ones without Rumsfield in them. :)

BigV 06-27-2007 02:39 PM

Perhaps, xoB.

Surely that's ok too. And you're right, I can get drawn in with a serious response to something intended to be casual. It's one of the burdens of being a srs cat.

Cloud 06-27-2007 02:44 PM

Serious Cat:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y107/cloudlb/ivan.jpg

xoxoxoBruce 06-27-2007 02:49 PM

Your free to read or skip any posts you want, but criticizing what you haven't read for comprehension is rude.

Cloud 06-27-2007 03:02 PM

so was your comment to me. Saying that I'm not interested in thinking is rather uncalled for, and not true.

My comments to BigV were not meant to be mean-spirited, and I apologize if they were taken that way. There's a lot of discussion in his posts, which I did read, about what other people think. I want to know what YOU (meaning the posters) know! Trying to get at life knowledge here.

BigV 06-27-2007 03:20 PM

What "other people" are you talking about? In my post, only I am talking, and I'm talking about one thing, what Rumsfeld said. It's all me, for pete's sake.

Rummy said "this and that", then I say what I think about it.

But *KNOW*... that's a strong word I rarely use. I have said this before.
Quote:

Originally Posted by BigV
I don't think I know anything. I might be wrong about that, though.

I don't know.


BigV 06-27-2007 03:53 PM

"Well, Art is Art, isn't it? Still, on the other hand, water is water! And East is East and West is West and if you take cranberries and stew them like applesauce they taste much more like prunes than rhubarb does. Now, uh... Now you tell me what you know."
--Groucho Marx, "Animal Crackers"

LabRat 06-27-2007 05:05 PM

I agree with the paraphrasing that V did, and wish more polititicians (or anyone in a 'higher' position than moi) would just GET TO THE POINT.

The following is my get to the point version:

Quote:

All of us in this business read intelligence information. I have done a great deal of work and analysis on past intellegence regarding what we knew, 'knowns', when we learned it, and when it actually had existed.

I found that there are occasionally very important pieces of intelligence information, 'unknowns', we did not know for up to13 years.

When we make our threat assessments, we base it on the known 'knowns' and the known 'unknowns'. And each year, we discover a few more of those unknown 'unknowns'.
I hope more people would have understood that. Of course, they would have known he was not answering the original question though ;)

rkzenrage 06-27-2007 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cloud (Post 354048)
--I know that people are capable of anything, from the ultimate evil to the ultimate good. So don't be surprised!

--I know that the IRS sucks!

--I know I love my children, and they love me.

Wow, you know more than I do. I don't know that my child loves me and I don't believe in absolute evil or good.

Violet Haze 06-27-2007 06:33 PM

I know that the vast majority of people are most often likely to follow the path of least resistance to where ever they are led, whether they are aware of it or not. Myself included.

Cloud 06-27-2007 06:46 PM

you don't know that your children love you?

:(

Clodfobble 06-27-2007 09:42 PM

Keep in mind, Cloud's kids are adults and rkz's kid is about 5.

jester 06-28-2007 03:11 PM

I know that sometimes I'm on the outside looking in

I know I don't have but maybe 1 or 2 true friends

I know that I spend alot of time here

I know that if I read the obituaries, I'm not in them.

monster 06-29-2007 08:40 AM

I know that it's a beautiful new day.

I know I left this cup of tea too long and it's going to be luke-warm.


...I was right. But it's still sunny, not too warm, not humid and I have a microwave.

Shawnee123 06-29-2007 10:25 AM

I know I'm taking vacation time next week. Right now, that's all I need to know. Well, that and the fact that now I have short-timers syndrome and I don't feel motivated to do anything.

This means, of course, that the Cellar gets a break from me. Hold your applause. ;)

theotherguy 06-29-2007 04:28 PM

I know my son thinks I am a superhero and I don't want to screw that up.

monster 06-29-2007 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenewguy (Post 360083)
I know my son thinks I am a superhero and I don't want to screw that up.

For a laugh, ask him what he thinks your special superpowers are.... :lol:

zippyt 06-29-2007 10:29 PM

I know that I am STILL tired as hell from rebuilding a truck scale from the ground UP yesterday !!!!
16 + hours from start to finish in 90+degree heat and about 300% humidity !!!

skysidhe 07-07-2007 03:56 PM

I am tired of being a chauffeur at times.

I chauffeur my mother, my son's other grandmother and at one time my own grandmother.

I am not resentful just tired today.

Shawnee123 07-07-2007 04:01 PM

I know I get to go back to work Monday. I'm sure there will be loads of it, too. Best thing to do when co-worker is away? Take lots of notes on pink message paper and make them deal with it when they get back. That's what they think, anyway.

No major revelations, no mind-popping decisions. Just a little rest and a lot of weary.

Except I did get a lot of yard work done and place is looking nice.

What'd I miss? ;)

skysidhe 07-07-2007 04:04 PM

I know that Shawnee's back! :)


Quote:

Originally Posted by Shawnee123 (Post 361955)
What'd I miss? ;)

I don't know. I've been gone too.

Shawnee123 07-07-2007 04:05 PM

Hi sky! S'up girl?

skysidhe 07-07-2007 04:12 PM

s'up yerself...lol


I hope you had a great vacation.;)

jester 07-09-2007 11:18 AM

if i buy now i can save 40% off of our company's christmas cards (only until oct.)


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