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Hey, I'll take the under if you want to lay money on it. (No New Hampshire professors doing the count this time, please.) I assume that since the Pentagon is so awful against the spread that you're giving me odds...?
And - this is the sticking point - I absolutely demand the Geneva Convention definitions. Human shields don't count! If soldiers drive red crescent (or whatever) trucks in order to get position on troops, they are not civilians. And if soldiers run into mosques to intentionally create highly-charged political situations for international cameras, NOBODY in that church is a civvie. Hey, that's Geneva. Now are we agreed? But you know... when it comes to numbers, I'm thinking about the 1 million civilians that have already died because Hussein has played hardball for years. And the millions more that could suffer - possibly including nations near you! - if he continues to play hardball in the future. |
I'd have to look back at the Geneva Convention docs to ensure that it specifies non-combatants (ie. priests) as combatants. But we'll assume it does (I don't think so; witness the Noriega operation). Wouldn't attacking that church be a horrible thing to do politically? When we try to devise the rules and methods of national security, we must do so with the popular effect our actions will have in mind. We were so bent on destruction of the Soviet Union that we became myopic in this regard - which is, in large part, why we're seeing the current backlash. If we start attacking any mosque a soldier runs into whether or not they attack from inside its walls, it will appear to be proof of Islamic extremist rhetoric about our inherent evil.
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I had look, and Geneva doesn't work the way we need it to work for our purposes.
Geneva prohibts attack of any civilian location. But it also prohibits *any* military use of civilian locations. In fact, in discussing hospitals, it goes so far as to say that handguns and similar arms taken from military personnel prior to treatment are OK. That's because ANY other millitary presence is unacceptable. The problem is that Geneva seems to assume, in its approach, that both sides agree to use Geneva. |
Fat chance, the US, CHina, Russia and pretty much every conflict ahve a long history of breaking it. Still, i think it has helped.
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Impending doom always makes an exciting story, and a story you want to repeat to others. But the real story -- actually more exciting, if you stop to think about it -- is how mankind's innovations overcome almost all obstacles. Stuff just gets better. |
We are the greatest! Woooooo!
Yeah! Matt Lauer can suck it! |
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Stoking fear is easier when you just make stuff up.
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And Martians now have Curiousity. |
Why do Martians hate America?
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Because we have so many Venusians here.
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