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-   -   brainstorm: solve the palestinian israeli conflict (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=26690)

TheMercenary 02-14-2012 05:03 PM

Doesn't look like it to the experts....

Quote:

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh arrived in Tehran on Feb. 10 for talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, DPA reported.
http://www.stratfor.com/situation-re...leader-arrives

Although this long well respected article supports some of your statements I would suggest they cannot do without Iran as supported by this statement:
(From yesterday)

Quote:

These states also understand that Hamas is unlikely to completely sever its ties with Iran. Beyond the money, weapons and training it has received from Iran and its allies, Hamas needs to maintain a decent working relationship with Iran to avoid creating greater complications for itself in the Gaza Strip.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/spe...mas-transition

Lap dogs? No. Proxies? Yes.

Not different from what we did in Afghanistan in the 1980's.

piercehawkeye45 02-15-2012 11:13 AM

Of course Hamas isn't completely separating from Iran. That would be extremely dumb on their part. And there isn't going to be any agreement from experts because I doubt their is any agreement in Hamas. There are die-hard Iran supporters in Hamas and others that probably want to completely cut ties.

The overall point is that, while obviously not completely seperating, Hamas is moving away from Iran and diversifying their funding. To me, this has two implications. First, Hamas may not attack Israel on Iranian command. If Israel does attack Iranian nuclear facilities, there is a lesser chance Hamas will respond since Israel would have prepared for it. I'm not saying Hamas won't respond, but there is a lesser chance now.

Second, Iran is losing influence in the Arab region as a whole. They counted on getting Arab support during any revolution to overthrow western backed dictators and that didn't happen. It was made even worse because they are now backing Al-Assad.

Undertoad 02-15-2012 11:50 AM

Hamas = Sunni

Iran = Shia

Iranian ascendancy is seen as a huge threat by much of Sunni Islam

The threat of an Iranian bomb has been shown to be a much greater concern to the Saudis than the existence of the Israeli bomb.

When the Iranians threaten to nuke Israel, surely some Palestinians realize that the blast area won't magically stop at the border.

Thus, brainstorm: solve the pal/israel conflict? Answer: find a common enemy bigger than the two of them.

done and done

TheMercenary 02-15-2012 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45 (Post 795453)
Of course Hamas isn't completely separating from Iran. That would be extremely dumb on their part. And there isn't going to be any agreement from experts because I doubt their is any agreement in Hamas. There are die-hard Iran supporters in Hamas and others that probably want to completely cut ties.

The overall point is that, while obviously not completely seperating, Hamas is moving away from Iran and diversifying their funding. To me, this has two implications. First, Hamas may not attack Israel on Iranian command. If Israel does attack Iranian nuclear facilities, there is a lesser chance Hamas will respond since Israel would have prepared for it. I'm not saying Hamas won't respond, but there is a lesser chance now.

Second, Iran is losing influence in the Arab region as a whole. They counted on getting Arab support during any revolution to overthrow western backed dictators and that didn't happen. It was made even worse because they are now backing Al-Assad.

You have some valid points, but I rely on Strafor over your assessments any day. And they don't completely agree with you.


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