The May Unemployment Numbers are Here, and Worse Than Predicted June 5, 2009
Posted by geoff in News.
465 comments
While I was waiting for May’s numbers to be released I did a quick Google News search on “unemployment.” Here is the first set of entries that popped up:

Pittsburgh unemployment rate falls to 6.9 percent Bizjournals.com - Unemployment in the Pittsburgh area inched down in April to 6.9 percent…
US Economy: Jobless Claims Fall, Productivity Rises Bloomberg
US jobless claims fall again, productivity rises Reuters
Jobless claims are down, but work remains scarce AP

You get the feeling that there’s a little pre-spin effort afoot? I mean, why put up an article on April’s unemployment on the day that May’s numbers come out? And while jobless claims did fall, interpreting that information without the unemployment rate is very difficult.

In any case, here is the new number for May: 9.4%, which is 0.2% higher than we had shown in the chart from a few days ago:*


Oh dear. And I’m serious – I expected the numbers to flatten out like it looked like they were going to a few days ago. This trend is terrible – the unemployment rate change was 60% higher than what was predicted, and is a larger increase than from March to April.

Maybe we’d better just keep focusing on those jobless claims.

*As always, this chart was constructed by overlaying the actual economic data on top of the chart made by Obama’s economic team to market his stimulus plan.

**Here are some other posts on the subject:

The predicted numbers for May from a few days ago, with some thoughts on why unemployment is worse than expected even without the stimulus package (and a hearty discussion in the comments on proper graphing)
A look at the stimulus package spending – how late it is, and how little thus far has been devoted to job creation (it’s basically gone to pay off states’ social services debts)
The April numbers
The original post on the subject, noting that criticisms of the stimulus package may not have been motivated by racism after all.

http://michaelscomments.wordpress.com/

What exactly is a "jobless claim"?

Is it where someone visits social security and says, I've just been fired?
Or is it a regular request for unemployment money by someone who has been out of work for months?

They are talking about new claims at state unemployment offices. Nothing to do with social security.

Thanks for the clarification.
So, the "good" news is, slightly fewer people lost their jobs this month than last month. Huzzah.

Down under, somehow our GDP just grew 0.4 in the second quarter, and total jobs have increased.
Our currency falling off a cliff probably helped by stimulating exports, as did the gubmint giving everyone a bucket of money and telling them to go spend it.

Australia is one of the very few countries that are almost immune to this recession.
The new unemployment claims dropped slightly, but most of those people laid off in the last five months are still unemployed. It will probably be another year or more before the economy can recover enough to start putting a significant dent in unemployment numbers.

Here is the Aussie dollar, versus the yen, for the last three years (the only rate I have ready to hand). It has done much the same against all other currencies.

Attachment 23711

I exchanged my yen for Aussies on Obama's inauguration day, figuring if anything was going to turn it around it would be that. That day was the third of those three very low spikes you see, the last before the recent recovery. :yelgreedy:yelgreedy:yelgreedy !

I guess that makes me one of the idle rich parasites exploiting fluctuations in exchange values without adding any real value. Oh well, peel me a grape, :D

I heard an interview this morning with Elizabeth Warren, Chair of the TARP Congressional Oversight Panel. She was discussing how the legislation was specifically written "ambiguously" so that if/when the banks pay back the money we, the taxpayers have no right to the money. In fact, according to her, the administration has the right to utilize that money however they see fit. In short we may (read probably) will never actually get paid back.

Furthermore, she said that she has been requesting more information on the banks and the stress tests. She cannot perform the functions of the position which they empowered her with.
Paraphrasing... I would just like them to be more open, transparent and forthcoming with the information from the stress tests so that we (an independent body) can look at how things are and may be affected by different economic indicators..."

http://cellar.org/2009/stimulus-vs-u...-june-dots.gif

starting to turn

Oh dear.


Well, the good news is, the speed of the increase seems to have decreased slightly. Oh joy. May just be a statistical blip, though.

The states are balancing their budgets. Maybe that is the reason for the spike?

Well I know in my state they are balancing the budget and much of it is being laid on the sholders of those rich state employees.
*cough cough*

Like any business, the boss screws up and the employees get screwed.

yup exactly

We are mandated to balance every year unlike California which is running a deficit. I am not sure if that is the right word 'deficit' but I think for California to go bust would be scary thing.

I just read in the paper this morning that GM couldn't find a buyer for Saab, so they are shutting it down.

That's it. Saab had a nice run and produced some neat cars, but now they have gone the way of the Studebaker. Good bye Saab.

I feel sorry for all those folks who paid hansomely for those cars within the last few years. I wonder how long they will continue to fix them?

History says unemployment may peak in 2012. With less than 100 years of comprehensive data, we have insufficient information to predict how well and what will happen due to what Bernanke, et al have done. We do know the economy was on the verge of a complete meltdown. How much less damage could have been done? That is debated. We do know, without doubt, that it could have been massively worse.

We also know the debts incurred to avoid a complete economic catastrophe will appear many years later. A disastrous home mortgage fiasco has yet to be addressed. We do know American fiscal irresponsibility over most of the last ten year will result in economic harm years from now. Economics takes revenge on those who use money games (ie tax cuts, corporate welfare, tariffs).

Large parts of America must be sold to pay our debts. Unfortunately irresponsible parties (ie General Motors) would rather destroy existing organizations rather than admit how little those organizations are now worth (ie Saab, Oldsmobile, Opel, Saturn, Pontiac, Vauxhall, etc).

Spread sheet games from years previously mean job losses or sale of America to others. We don't have much left to mortgage having even converted a government surplus into massive debts (with nothing to show for it). These are the lessons even from Nam. One need only learn why George Sr was so smart as to have the world - not America - pay for Desert Storm. Lessons from history. Now we will learn if a different tack from Bernanke, et al will work better.

Obvious was a crashing housing industry based in money games. Same reasoning says we have yet to see the eventual unemployment numbers. Worse are the number of American jobs that must be filled by immigrants - due to a shortage of technically educated American and a government that has subverted science for political purposes. Things have yet to get worse. The only question is how much. Mild or severe?

But wait! There's a last minute deal. GM just reached a deal with exotic car maker Spyker and the Swedish government to unload Saab. Saab's not dead yet, and being owned by an exotic car maker may give it a much needed boost.

Bumpity bump... not sure yet how to take this. Its probably bunk, but ...

Help me out here people. What am I missing?

Maybe it was this ...
Link

Your link led me to something called the "Wonk Blog." When I tried to click on its content, the site wouldn't let me do anything. Maybe you have to subscribe?

That CBO report came out in 2010, so its sort of old news. Although I don't see why it would lie since the CBO is non partisan.

Nancy Pelosi, on the other hand, is running for re-election. I'd take the word of any politician running for office with a gazillion grains of salt.

Wonkblog is the Washington Post editorial page.

The link takes you to an article that goes over 9 different assessments of the stimulus and its benefits.

OK, I tried it tonight, and now it works. This morning I either had gremlins in my computer or quite possibly my brain.

That's a lot of info there and I just glanced through it. The author says 6 out of 9 studies show that the stimulus was effective. But he also notes that economists seem to have some quarrels with each other over which economic model to use or something.

Off topic but this finding interested me So, why does Congress want to throw low income Americans out to be food for the wolves again?

Anyhow. I didn't see anything that explained the incredible money to job ratio that you highlighted in your post. But I didn't read all nine studies - maybe buried away somewhere in one of them?

Say an average American made $40,000/year. At those costs, you could just directly give an unemployed worker that sum for anywhere from 10 - 34 years. :eek:

But if you looked at it like each worker has been placed in a $40,000/year job that s/he is going to keep for 20 years, get periodic pay increases, and pay taxes on - well then the numbers might make more sense.

I'm not much help, am I? :confused:

UT or tw needs to give you a reply.

no the original post based that jobs created # off the total amount of the stimulus when only part of it was for job creation. Thats what I got from the second link anyway.

It's like the "$16 muffins".

zactly ... I think.
Shouldn't this be a relatively easy figure to guesstimate?

That report was false.


http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/10...n_never_e.html

Not bunk. The supposed Obama-Pelosi-Reid "Stimulus" was a boondoggled failure.

Of course. That was my point.

Then ....
So glad this shit was stopped. How long will it take the senate to bring this to the floor?
:vomit:

Never.