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-   Politics (http://cellar.org/forumdisplay.php?f=5)
-   -   The Obamanation (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=19310)

classicman 09-08-2009 03:49 PM
I don't know that there is an issue - that was my original point. She seemed to think there was and so did the other person who was "creeped out" by "it." I really didn't get what she was referring to. I shared the article, thats all.

Either way, its better than talking about non-existent death squads... :p

lookout123 09-08-2009 05:16 PM
just cuz you can't see them doesn't mean they don't exist.

Urbane Guerrilla 09-09-2009 10:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanaC (Post 593090)
Ahhh....dunno why I had scanned your reply and though it said Radar, I 'saw' rkzenrage lol.

Soz about that :P
Erm... that would be awkward. Somehow. I think. If I go and dig through the posts of Nov '08, I can find the exact post, I'm sure.

TheMercenary 09-10-2009 09:56 AM
I thought his speech was quite... Presidential. He spoke much better than Bush ever could. I am not sure it really changed anyone's mind about the issues at hand.

Happy Monkey 09-10-2009 10:28 AM
I heard a poll on the radio that showed a dramatic change - 67% supporting him. That won't last, but some amount of improvement probably will.

But I doubt he changed many congressional minds.

classicman 09-10-2009 01:19 PM
Quote:
Sure enough, CNN did a flash poll showing that ObamaCare a 14-point gain among speech-watchers. Buried at the end of the story is the fact that the sample of speech-watchers in the poll was 45% Democratic and 18% Republican. For comparison, consider that the most recent Gallup survey of party ID among adults had 35% of Americans as Democrats and 28% as Republicans. A 14-point swing among a sample that skewed to the left is not surprising. Regular tracking polls are unlikely to show anything near it.
I think this is from a partisan site, but I only did a quick google search.

TheMercenary 09-10-2009 01:21 PM
And it was a poll based on 427 Adults. :lol2:

classicman 09-10-2009 02:11 PM
Well that and ...

Quote:
I noted that “the self-selected audience for the speech will likely skew in favor of Obama, something to remember if the establishment media does a poll of people who watched the speech.” There was nothing oracular about this prediction. As Democratic pollster Mark Blumenthal noted before the speech: (1) instant response polls measure only speech-watchers; (2) the audience is usually skewed toward the President’s fans; (3) instant reactions tend to fade; and (4) some pollsters have reservations about instant reaction polls in general.

dar512 09-10-2009 03:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMercenary (Post 593905)
And it was a poll based on 427 Adults. :lol2:
I'm guessing that you are not familiar with surveys and statistics. For the given sample size the margin of error is ~4.5%. Acceptable for a quick poll.

Major surveys typically use a sample size of ~ 1000. However that only reduces the margin to ~3.2 percent.

classicman 09-10-2009 03:36 PM
Ohhh noooooo - Merc doesn't believe in polls - don't get that started again!

TheMercenary 09-10-2009 05:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dar512 (Post 593950)
I'm guessing that you are not familiar with surveys and statistics. For the given sample size the margin of error is ~4.5%. Acceptable for a quick poll.

Major surveys typically use a sample size of ~ 1000. However that only reduces the margin to ~3.2 percent.
I am quite familar with the statistical strenght of and validity of polling. It is the weakest form of any statistical measure and means absolutely nothing because the majority are not measuring an adequate sample. There are numerous other weaknesses but I will spare you.

dar512 09-10-2009 07:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMercenary (Post 593986)
I am quite familar with the statistical strenght of and validity of polling. It is the weakest form of any statistical measure and means absolutely nothing because the majority are not measuring an adequate sample. There are numerous other weaknesses but I will spare you.
I see. You know better than the industry standards. Uh-huh.

classicman 09-11-2009 09:17 AM
lol - told ya that was coming - HAGGIS!

dar512 09-11-2009 09:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMercenary (Post 593986)
There are numerous other weaknesses but I will spare you.
If I want to dig any deeper into polling and statistics, I will walk down the hall and talk to any of the statistics doctorates we have here.

(If that allows any of you to guess where I work, be advised that I do not speak for the company I work for, and my opinions are my own.)

dar512 09-11-2009 09:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by classicman (Post 594102)
lol - told ya that was coming - HAGGIS!
You called it.


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