glatt |
03-12-2008 09:20 AM |
Maybe it's because I have children that this is beginning to bug me so much, but I think we are very near peak production of oil right now. I don't know if we haven't quite reached peak yet, or if we passed it a few years ago. But I do think that it took us about a hundred years to use up about half the oil on Earth. We are using fuel at ever increasing rates, and China is going to increase those rates dramatically. We got 100 years out of the first half of the oil. I bet we use the second half of the oil in 50 years. As the supply dwindles and more and more people are competing for less and less oil, it will get painful real fast. We might only have 25 years of useful oil.
As things stand right now, we don't have any alternatives to replace the fossil fuels. Sure, the selfish and greed driven markets will eventually wake up and see what's coming and begin to really work on this difficult problem but it may be too late then.
What should government do? They should dictate fuel economy for all new vehicles. The SUV loophole has gone unaddressed for too long. They should create huge tax incentives for conserving fuel in other areas, like getting high efficiency utilities in houses and businesses. Those are just two examples, but you get the idea. They should promote/enforce/cajole/dictate conservation.
They should also do everything they can to promote innovation in areas of alternative fuels. Just like it funds the DARPA race for robot vehicle development, I think the government should be very aggressively pushing for alternative fuels. If America discovers the next great fuel technology, maybe we can rule the world again. It's been a while since we have developed a groundbreaking new technology. I mentioned the space race before, and I'm really serious about that. Back in the 60's, the government made putting a man on the moon a priority, and spent a lot of money and a lot of effort organizing that project. The country was behind it. We had a leader then. We need a similar leader now but it should be an energy race. Not a space race.
Lookout asked who should profit from this. I'm not sure how to do that, but the government auctions off its resources and rights all the time. A similar system could be set up.
The one thing we shouldn't do is sit here watching the end of oil coming towards us (from 50 years out) and pretend it isn't happening.
Oh, and a bump in oil prices now because of the low dollar isn't the problem I'm focused on, I'm speaking slightly more long term. A few decades out.
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