The Cellar - A 'cane? wen duz come de 'cane?

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Ike has potential of getting fierce tonight. Gulf water temperatures in that region are well above 30 degrees C - topping off ocean temperature charts. Ike has shifted to spend time where the Gulf is warmest (nearer the flock of oil platforms) and where upper atmosphere wind sheer is minimal. Wave heights even when Ike was only category 2 have reached 30 feet.

Flood plain maps - I can only find maps for the Sabine Pass, Orange, Beauford areas of TX. Relevant would be flooding maps for Galveston and farther south to appreciate how far inland a category 3 (or higher) hurricane will flow. These maps also show evacuation routes that are least likely to flood.

This warning from the National Hurricane Center:

Quote:

BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IKE WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.

I have some extended family there - they have all left and are staying at hotels through the weekend.

tw - are you in the path of this storm?

My stepkids are in Houston, but it's the northwest end of the city, a good several hours from Galveston. I don't think anyone in their area is evacuating or expecting flooding, but they're prepared for a hell of a thunderstorm.

The models are calling for Ike to be a Category 1 well inland, then curve around and head for Monster in Ann Arbor, Michigan, or maybe down to Ohio to visit Shawnee and Brianna.

We've got a supertyphoon moving in on us here in taipei.
it's batten-down-the-hatches time.

Quote:

WTCI RCTP 120900 =
WARNING VALID 130900Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TYPHOON 200813 (SINLAKU 200813) WARNING =
POSITION 120900Z AT TWO THREE POINT SIX NORTH ( 23.6N ) ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT EAST ( 123.8E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS NW BECOMING WNW 9KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 925 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 51 METER PER SECOND GUST 63 METER PER SECOND =
RADIUS OF OVER 15M/S WINDS 250 KM =
FORECAST POSITION =
12HRS VALID AT 122100Z AT TWO FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ( 24.2N ) ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO EAST ( 123.0E )=
24HRS VALID AT 130900Z AT TWO FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ( 24.6N ) ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO EAST ( 122.2E )=
48HRS VALID AT 140900Z AT TWO FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ( 25.9N ) ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT EAST ( 121.8E )=
72HRS VALID AT 150900Z AT TWO SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ( 27.1N ) ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE EAST ( 122.5E )

Quote:

0600UTC 12 September 2008
Center Location 23.4N 124.1E
Movement NNW 13km/hr
Minimum Pressure 925hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 51m/s
Gust 63m/s
Radius of 15m/s 250km
Radius of 25m/s 100km

Quote:

Originally Posted by HungLikeJesus (Post 483474)

The models are calling for Ike to be a Category 1 well inland, then curve around and head for Monster in Ann Arbor, Michigan, or maybe down to Ohio to visit Shawnee and Brianna.

Sweet!

We actually get visited by the tail end of some here in the British Isles. They come up the Gulf Stream.

Nothing like you get of course. But then we are a sensible country, with sensible weather [/AlMurray]

Better news from the National Hurricane Center:

Quote:

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT IKE HAS NOT DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE AS ANTICIPATED.

It may only strike as a category 2.

However Galveston authorities are saying if you stay in a one or two story house, you will die. They are that blunt.

I saw the headline on CNN.com "Ike may bring certain death." Well, which is it? It either "may" or it's "certain."

Shawnee, you beat me to it. I was going to post the same comment.

Great minds, my friend, great minds.

Isn't death always certain? If not, tell me the secret - I'd surely like to know.

90K idiots in Galveston refused orders to evacuate. Whole damned island's going to be underwater by midnight CDT, if not already. Some of the idiots who refused to evacuate have been plucked from the roofs of their flooded houses by Coast Guard helicopters.

Honestly, reminds me of transplants to South Florida just before Andrew rolled through in 1992 ... or a lot of New Orleans-area residents prior to Katrina. Major 'cane rolls in ... you leave. It's that simple. Or is it?

Also, DirecTV customers can check in on local Houston coverage via channel 361, which is rebroadcasting KHOU's signal.