We've been Learning about Birth'n Hurricanes
 

Today starts hurricane season. Last year, the first hurricane was June 9. Names for this year's storms are:
Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto
Florence Gordon Helene Isaac
Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael
Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael
Sandy Tony Valerie William

Currently storms that might swell into hurricanes are leaving Africa and transversing to Brazil - too far south. Only one hurricane has struck Brazil - in 1994. When that line moves north, then the fun here begins:

Does anyone want to bet on which name will be a monster?

Brianna is not on the list.

That's very funny, tw.

Now, I'm going to bet on Ernesto simply because I like saying 'Ernesto'.

Tony, of course.

yeah! Go Tony!

Nadine is going to be a bitch, in a way that only a southern diner waitress can be ...

Gordon? Since when are hurricanes Canadian?

Rafael, because half of the US will pronounce it Ray-full and drive me nuts.

Along the same lines, nearly the entire city of St. Louis pronounces the street Goethe as go-thee where the "th" as in "thing".

I heard that the hurricane naming convention will be redeployed under the Dept. of Homeland Security, and that Bush has issued an Executive Decree that henceforth all hurricanes shall be named with Islamic names. That way, when the next city gets flattened we can blame it on "Hurricane Jafar" or whatever. You know, War on Terror, and all that. God Bless America, etc. etc.

I thought the Teenage Mutant ninja Turtles fixed that?
I predict Isaac will not shaft us, just be hazy.:blush:

Hurricane Chris will be bad !!!

I'm betting Beta will be nasty...

It'll be Willy that gets ya...

So what happens if we have this hurricane party and no guest of honor arrives? Estimate something like eight major evacuations before one is honored by a storm.

Guys, guys...Oscar will leave the place a huge mess, with food, clothes and cigar butts all over the apartment.

Conditions necessary for hurricanes are slowly appearing. Currently, warm water has formed south of Cuba where a tropical depression now called Alberto formed. First picture from US Navy sea temperature maps shows a warm water channel that carried this storm from Africa. The storm would have passed over northern S America, then intensified in the Caribbean south of Cuba. Second picture shows where that storm would have been seven days earlier. As that warm Atlantic channel moves north, those storms will stay over oceans into the Caribbean.

As Alberto approaches FL, warm water does not yet exist to intensify that storm. But as a rain storm, FL could use that rain for east coast grassland fires. Again, the first picture. Once in the Atlantic, water is not yet warm enough to create an east coast threat.

But let's not forget, last year's first named storm was this same week.

East coast hurricanes do not exist because of two reasons demonstrated by first two (below) May 2006 sea surface temperature map and 22 Jun satellite map. The Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have stayed cold (as North America gets hot). Storm tracks from Africa remain south - traveling across S America in Brazil, French Guinea, Venezuela, and Columbia. Also notice warm waters of the Eastern Pacific. Eastern Pacific is now playing with what might be its seventh tropical storm.

Last week, the patterns changed. In the next post, 26 July sea surface temperatures remain cool. In particular, Atlantic east coast remains cold (today's NJ ocean temperature is only 64 degrees F). But Atlantic Ocean storm tracks from Africa have moved north; now track into the Caribbean Sea. The Gulf is now warm enough to birth some hurricanes.

On your mark. Get set. Start Birth'n 'em.

Latest sea temperatures and storm tracks:

I've got it! :idea:
Oh man...it's so simple.
Just reverse the rotation of the Earth and blow all that crap back at Africa.

I used to find them so exciting, then I went through four storms, three of them direct hits, as a disabled man with an infant son...
I am now terrified of them.
It was my first experience with helplessness. I still have nightmares

The other thing that sticks with me was the total devistation... and soon after all the Americans all over the world helping everyone else with storms, typhoons, wars that were not ours, etc, so proud of them.
Then remembering no one from any other nation coming to help us, funny that.

Well it did not take very long to get started once the storm path changed. Tropical Strom Chris:

Chris is expected to be a hurricane by 8AM Thursday (3 Aug) when it is north of Puerto Rico. Within five days (7 Aug), it is predicted to be between FL and Cuba with air currents pushing it westward. That is a nice long stretch of warmer water, few land masses, and reports also discuss two upper atmosphere cyclones that should strengthen Chris.

On a related note, there was an article in this morning's paper suggesting that we need to build more offshore oil rigs in the Gulf to increase production.

Wouldn't it suck if it hits New Orleans?

I'm kind of hoping it does. Better to slam into New Orleans this week than to do it in 5 years after Billions have been spent on reconstruction.

Humans have no business rebuilding that city. It's below sea level and surrounded by water in the middle of hurricane central.

So you think kicking them while they're down might help the message to sink in?

I hope so.

Anyone who wants to rebuild on ther own dime with no insurance has my blessing to do so. But New Orleans is too high risk to be supported again by the rest of the country when the next hurricane destroys it. The historic old part of the city is still above sea level. It can stay and continue to be a tourist attraction. Anything below sea level should be abandoned, or the owners should assume all risk.

East coast and gulf coast sea surface temperatures have remains low compared to last year. NJ (east coast) ocean temperature dropped to 59 degrees (15 c) durng the 1st week of August. Demonstrated below, storms from Africa (that breed hurricanes) have shifted to a more southern track across S America. That means no storms in the Caribbean to breed hurricanes.

Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific is now into a ninth tropical depression - this one called Hector.

However currently in the upper left corner, about 200 miles away from "South of the Border" is a potential tropical storm.

Warm sea surface temperatures that dominated 2005 have not existed this year. However Ernesto has a track that could take it over recently warm Gulf waters. Had the previous predicted track taken Ernesto west of Cuba, the it probably would be stronger. But the current prediction over more of Cuba means a less strength storm. Still the predicted track will contact water well over 85 degrees F (brown colored areas) up the FL west coast.

Considering how its predicted track keeps moving east, Ernesto may end up on FL east coast where waters are cooler and where the track sends it longer over land and diminished by Cuba's mountains:

On 31 August (Thursday), two storms had rolled off of Africa. The leftmost of these two is now expected to become hurricane Florence on Friday, 8 September as it travels north of Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. Its projected curve appears to roll up the American east coast but well out to sea.

Meanwhile, over in the eastern Pacific, the 11th tropical storm formed while the 10th one at one point became a category 3 hurricane (John). Pacific Ocean is taking our hurricanes this year. Many head for San Diego but never get there. Boring hurricane season.

Of those two 31 Aug storms, the second one also intensified to become Gordon. As the hurricane season winds down (and most storms past across Central America to become something like 12 Eastern Pacific tropical storms), we have this ninth Atlantic storm and an unusual comment from an NHC forecaster:

It was an extremely active and destructive hurricane season throughout the world. But the Atlantic coast only saw maybe 10 tropical storms. This year, storm tracks took a more southern path across northern South America. Therefore the Pacific coast now has its 19th hurricane - Sergio. This is the second hurricane just this month (November).

Western Pacific also suffered numerous hurricanes including multiple strikes to Tiawan, one on Hong Kong, etc. Long since lost the number but the western Pacfic suffered multiple category 5 hurricanes this year. It was an extremely active hurricane season. Unites States residents got lucky this year. Sergio:

It´s the Global Warming