The Cellar - It's worse than that!

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It's worse than that!

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An intelligence assessment claims that terrorism has grown worse because of the Iraq war. Expect this intelligence assessment to be played as a political card by Democrats as the fall elections near.

So W's own folks have come to a conclusion that is in opposition to the administration's (again). Will he throw his analysts under the bus, repent, or ignore the report? My guess is that heads will roll. Howard Dean's wife isn't in the CIA, is she?

I'm gonna go with 'ignore'.

Those aren't W's own folks. Those are the folks that Rumsfeld created a separate intelligence organization in order to bypass.

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Originally Posted by Happy Monkey

Those aren't W's own folks. Those are the folks that Rumsfeld created a separate intelligence organization in order to bypass.

In that case, I'm sure Rumsfeld is going to be invited along with Cheney for a little hunting trip in the near future.

Has this been turned into an evil leakers story yet?

I was actually surprised this story took a few days to come up on the Cellar. I was positive the day the report came out in the Times and the Post that tw would work it into one of his threads. It exactly what he's been saying for a while.

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Originally Posted by Griff

Has this been turned into an evil leakers story yet?

I can hear W now "if we admit the truth...if we admit that all our harrrrrd work has been for nuthin... or even made things worse, we're playing into the terrorists hands. We cannot undermine our military personnel by having this discussion. Listen, we did not invade Iraq to stop terrorism, we invaded Iraq for oil... I mean to create jobs for Ameri... to remove a bad man from power. Yeah, that's it. To remove Saddam from power - had to be a regime change. Harrrd work. Valerie Plame is a covert CIA agent."

All I can say is... Every president elected in an '00 year (Or maybe it was just '0... I forget. Anyway-) has died in office. Either by assassination, or something stupid like rotten cherries or pneumonia.

And now it's Dubya's turn. My money's on something stupid. Probably another pretzel...

It's just the "0". Reagan broke the curse.

Reagan DID get shot, though. Unfortunately, he survived. Still, there's always hope that the "00" curse will work this time around.

I can see why the left so vigorously defends the religion of peace. They have much in common.

Bush is the anti-Christ. :p

President and NIE Contradict - Which is Lying

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Originally Posted by glatt

I was actually surprised this story took a few days to come up on the Cellar.

Wait for George Jr to proclaim lies and provide documents that prove he is spinning. Not only does a leaked document says George Jr lies. A declassified version also says same. And still George Jr lies. He is so classic of a religious extremist. From ABC News of 26 Sept 2006:

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In the bleak report, released Tuesday on President Bush's orders, the nation's most veteran analysts conclude that despite serious damage to the leadership of al-Qaida, the threat from Islamic extremists has spread both in numbers and in geographic reach.

"If this trend continues, threats to U.S. interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide," the document says. "The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups."

Since a political agenda is so important to an extremist (one who talks to god) - since secret documents are conveniently 'leaked' for a politicial agenda - George Jr declassified (leaked) more of a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). George Jr claims a 'light in the end of the tunnel' which both the leaked and the declassified assessments contradict.

More from ABC News summary:

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The increased role of Iraqis in opposing al-Qaida in Iraq might lead the terror group's veteran foreign fighters to focus their efforts outside the country.

While Iran and Syria are the most active state sponsors of terror, many other countries will be unable to prevent their resources from being exploited by terrorists.

The underlying factors that are fueling the spread of the extremist Muslim movement outweigh its vulnerabilities. These factors are entrenched grievances and a slow pace of reform in home countries, rising anti-U.S. sentiment and the Iraq war. ...

"Exposing the religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists' propaganda would help to divide them from the audiences they seek to persuade," the report says.

It also argues that the loss of key leaders Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in "rapid succession" would probably cause the group to fracture.

Major leaders such as Zarqawi were killed - and the insurgency only grew in size and violence. Of course - as was even obvious in The Cellar posts. Same posts that also noted how George Jr never went after America's real enemy: bin Laden. What was repeatedly posted even two years ago by some in the Cellar? "When are we going after bin Laden?" George Jr supporters remained silent - a classic anti-American attitude so common among extremists. Bin Laden was the enemy - and America did almost nothing to get him. Add those facts to the report - and it says George Jr did more things wrong.

The president's response is now documented. The president's response is not supported by details in that report. Quotes from the report that George Jr declassified:

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Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, ... activists identifying themselves as jihadists, ... are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.

If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.

Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances ...

We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti-American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.

Meanwhile, the president lies - in direct contradiction to his own NIE report - saying if we don't fight them there, then they will come here. Report says opposite.

Meanwhile we in The Cellar read so many years ago that this insurgency, jihadists, etc was akin to a field of dandelions - not a worldwide terrorist network as the president lies. The report says this decentralized enemy (not a worldwide terrorist network) will only get more decentralized as America inspires more enemies (for four reasons defined below).

Why does a declassified assessment further contradict George Jr? He hopes you don't read such details - only listen to his propaganda. He hopes you do as do those who listen to Rush Limbaugh. He also hoped you got excited when Zarqawi was killed - as proof the "Mission Accomplished" war was being won. He hopes you don't notice that violence and insurgent numbers have only increased since Zarqawi's death. He hopes you don't notice what is causing jihad to grow everywhere - like dandelions on the lawn - as both the leaked and declassified reports say:

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The Iraq conflict has become the cause celebre for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. ...

Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1) Entrenched grievances ... (2) the Iraq jihad; (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims ...

Report speculates as more jihadists fail, then others are less likely to follow. Well they failed in the 1993 WTC attack. They failed in Millennium attacks all over the world including LAX, Egyptian tourists, bombing the USS The Sullivans, and maybe in Toronto and NYC. They failed to explode airliners over the Pacific and Atlantic (an exploding shoe). Their failures have been far more numerous, and yet the jihad grows stronger - for four reasons defined in the report.

Look at four reasons for jihad. Bush (especially a one sided Israeli support) only heightens and encourages grievances. Americans made Iraqis life worse. Reforms stifled by a president who said, "Americans don't do nation building". Afghanistan was lost years ago when America did no reforms - no nation building in that so critical first year. Thank you genius George Jr.

First 3 reasons define a growing insurgency and jihad. #4 is obvious: “pervasive anti-US sentiment" - animosity not just limited to Muslims. Dropping US approval is directly traceable to administration wacko extremists. Ratings dropped from about 70% to about 15%. Americans were once highly regarded by Muslims - before America voted for a president who talks to god and promotes Christian extremism.

Added facts (that a George Jr routinely ignores) to a declassified report says how and why America cannot win "Mission Accomplished". This president even lies is in a declassified report.

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The jihadists greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution an ultra-conservative interpretation of sharia-based governance spanning the Muslim world is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims.

IOW if America stops imposing an American solution on a Muslim world, then jihadist would be dis-empowered. Jihadist did, do, and only would attack those in their own country. Americans are attacked because we are imposing - therefore making a stronger and inspired jihad.

George Jr proclaims we are "winning the war against terrorism". He also hopes you don't read. Don't be as dumb as George Jr hopes. Don't blindly and obediently support a world class idiot. Read for yourself what George Jr lied about:
Declassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States dated April 2006

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Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests. The radicalization process is occurring more quickly, more widely, and more anonymously in the Internet age, raising the likelihood of surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may be difficult to pinpoint.

Does that say we are winning? Of course not. Why does a lying president say differently? Apparently he is only preaching to dumb and blind Americans - those who worship Rush Limbaugh logic.

'Big dic' Americans who also promote torture, kidnapping, wiretapping, secret prisions, protect bin Laden ... are encouraging and empowering America's enemies. That fact from a leaked NIE assessment. That conclusion is not disputed by George Jr's declassified report - no matter how he lies about it.

George Jr claims he is making America safer - in direct contradiction to that report. America can no longer win in Iraq or in Afghanistan. We have successfully encouraged and caused jihad to grow - because our president did not even read his own declassified report and then lied about what that report really says. Now Americans will be under greater threat everywhere in the world. Do you believe god wants that? Or that George Jr lies? Of course he lies. That should have long been obvious.

Thats prettymuch gotta be a record.

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Originally Posted by Ibram

Thats prettymuch gotta be a record.

No, George Jr has lied far more egregiously before. No record. He is simply doing what he always does.

Saddam attacked the World Trade Center. Aluminun tubes for WMDs. God told George Jr to invade Iraq. Only an idiot would not recognize a scumbag president - be it Richard Nixon or George Jr. They were both liars. And one is still doing it.

Actually, I didnt read your post. Only commented on the length.

tw, I tried to read your post, but kept getting confused about what you were quoting, and if the Bush lies were new ones from yesterday or just the same old ones.

Here's what I do understand:

Some info from the intelligence report was leaked a few days ago. That info was very negative for Bush's Iraq war.

Yesterday, Bush declassified much more of the report to try to put a positive spin on things again. The little coverage I have seen has made this declassified info also seem really negative for Bush.

What spin is Bush trying to put on the partially declassified report? What's his version of things? I didn't see that in your post, and I haven't seen it in the press.

Press conference yesterday (presented w/o opinion)

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PRESIDENT BUSH: I, of course, read the key judgments on the NIE. I agree with their conclusion that because of our successes against the leadership of al Qaeda, the enemy is becoming more diffuse and independent. I'm not surprised the enemy is exploiting the situation in Iraq and using it as a propaganda tool to try to recruit more people to their -- to their murderous ways.

Some people have guessed what's in the report and have concluded that going into Iraq was a mistake. I strongly disagree. I think it's naive. I think it's a mistake for people to believe that going on the offense against people that want to do harm to the American people makes us less safe. The terrorists fight us in Iraq for a reason: They want to try to stop a young democracy from developing, just like they're trying to fight another young democracy in Afghanistan. And they use it as a recruitment tool, because they understand the stakes. They understand what will happen to them when we defeat them in Iraq.

You know, to suggest that if we weren't in Iraq, we would see a rosier scenario with fewer extremists joining the radical movement requires us to ignore 20 years of experience. We weren't in Iraq when we got attacked on September the 11th. We weren't in Iraq, and thousands of fighters were trained in terror camps inside your country, Mr. President. We weren't in Iraq when they first attacked the World Trade Center in 1993. We weren't in Iraq when they bombed the Cole. We weren't in Iraq when they blew up our embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. My judgment is, if we weren't in Iraq, they'd find some other excuse, because they have ambitions. They kill in order to achieve their objectives.

You know, in the past, Osama bin Laden used Somalia as an excuse for people to join his jihadist movement. In the past, they used the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It was a convenient way to try to recruit people to their jihadist movement. They've used all kinds of excuses.

This government is going to do whatever it takes to protect this homeland. We're not going to let their excuses stop us from staying on the offense. The best way to protect America is defeat these killers overseas so we do not have to face them here at home. We're not going to let lies and propaganda by the enemy dictate how we win this war.

Now, you know what's interesting about the NIE -- it was a intelligence report done last April. As I understand, the conclusions -- the evidence on the conclusions reached was stopped being gathered on February -- at the end of February. And here we are, coming down the stretch in an election campaign, and it's on the front page of your newspapers. Isn't that interesting? Somebody has taken it upon themselves to leak classified information for political purposes.

I talked to John Negroponte today, the DNI. You know, I think it's a bad habit for our government to declassify every time there's a leak, because it means that it's going to be hard to get good product out of our analysts. Those of you who have been around here long enough know what I'm talking about. But once again, there's a leak out of our government, coming right down the stretch in this campaign, -- to create confusion in the minds of the American people, in my judgment, is why they leaked it.

And so we're going to -- I told the DNI to declassify this document. You can read it for yourself. We'll stop all the speculation, all the politics about somebody saying something about Iraq, somebody trying to confuse the American people about the nature of this enemy. And so John Negroponte, the DNI, is going to declassify the document as quickly as possible. He'll declassify the key judgments for you to read yourself. And he'll do so in such a way that we'll be able to protect sources and methods that our intelligence community uses. And then everybody can draw their own conclusions about what the report says.

Thank you.

Q My question --

PRESIDENT BUSH: What was that question?

Q Why is that declassification not --

PRESIDENT BUSH: Because I want you to read the documents so you don't speculate about what it says. You asked me a question based upon what you thought was in the document, or at least somebody told you was in the document. And so I think, Jennifer, you'll be able to ask a more profound question when you get to look at it yourself -- (laughter) -- as opposed to relying upon gossip and somebody who may or may not have seen the document trying to classify the war in Iraq one way or the other.

I guess it's just Washington, isn't it, where, you know, we kind of -- there's no such thing as classification anymore, hardly. But, anyway, you ought to take a look at it and then you'll get to see.

Thanks UT. I'm sure I could have found that if I tried, but it's nice to have it spoonfed to me. :)

At least you can count on Bush to be consistent in his positions.

I find his accusations about the leak being politically motivated to be a little hypocritical. His administration is the most secretive one in memory, but he has no problem declassifying secrets when they will help him gain politically. If he can play that game, then he shouldn't complain when others do as well.

Quote:

You know, to suggest that if we weren't in Iraq, we would see a rosier scenario with fewer extremists joining the radical movement requires us to ignore 20 years of experience. We weren't in Iraq when we got attacked on September the 11th. We weren't in Iraq, and thousands of fighters were trained in terror camps inside your country, Mr. President. We weren't in Iraq when they first attacked the World Trade Center in 1993. We weren't in Iraq when they bombed the Cole. We weren't in Iraq when they blew up our embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

I don't think anyone ever claimed that terrorism was invented because we invented Iraq.

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Originally Posted by glatt

I find his accusations about the leak being politically motivated to be a little hypocritical. His administration is the most secretive one in memory, but he has no problem declassifying secrets when they will help him gain politically.

And the other direction, too. There's another part to this report, reportedly even more damaging to his position, that they are forcing to be kept in draft form until after the election.

Quote:

Originally Posted by glatt

...I find his accusations about the leak being politically motivated to be a little hypocritical. ...

Did you hear the leak that John McCain has a love child with an African American woman? :rolleyes: Or the leak that Valerie Plame is a CIA agent?

It's even worse when the "leak" isn't accurate.

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Originally Posted by Bush

...to create confusion in the minds of the American people...

ha ha ha
Shouldn't we be asking: Under what type of circumstances would more information create "confusion" ???

Corollary:
a) How low is his opinion (openly stated here) of the critical thinking skills of the American people ???
b) How high is his confidence in whatever it is that will create "confusion" when mixed with this report ???

Quote:

Originally Posted by glatt

What spin is Bush trying to put on the partially declassified report? What's his version of things? I didn't see that in your post, and I haven't seen it in the press.

Difficult to list so many George Jr lies in a short post because George Jr lied so many times. For example, from George Jr:

Quote:

Clearly he thinks you are dumb. 1993 WTC and 11 September happened because we were in the most holy Islam nation - Saudi Arabia. We were there because George Jr subordinates (Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfovich, etc) did not do their job ten years earlier. An extremist George Jr would have you forget that fact. George Jr lies just like Nixon.

We attacked a greatest enemy of extremists and promised to leave. Because we were attacking Saddam - a greatest enemy of religious extremists - and because we promised to leave, then extremists were willing to accept American occupation.

But we did not remove Saddam AND we did not leave the most holy nation in Islam. We are not targets only because of Iraq - as George Jr lies. We were targets because Americans did not leave Saudi Arabia - as promised. And we did not leave because George Jr's people did not do their job in the George Sr administration.

George Jr associates 'bin Laden type' attacks with Iraq because he thinks you are that dumb. He even told you that Saddam conspired to create 11 September when Saddam was doing everything possible to avoid conflict with the US. George Jr lies again so that you forget that reality - Saddam wanted to be a friend of the US. George Jr must have you forget that fact.

Meanwhile a declassified assessment does not say they will come after us if we leave Iraq. It implies otherwise. It says Americans are targets because we continue to occupy Muslim nations and kill Muslims such as in Iraq. It provides four reasons why jihadists, terrorists, and insurgents all get stronger.

The post quotes four points that make Americans targets of jihadists. Those four point bluntly contradict what George Jr says. Jihadist easily recruit and grow stronger only because of what we are doing in iraq and because of what we had done elsewhere.

In another lie, George Jr says Americans are safer. 'Safer' is one of his many sound byte responses - for those who never ask why. We even torture innocent people and somehow Americans are safer? Even the declassified report says, ... well read it. Where does the declassified report imply that Americans are now safer? It does not. George Jr lied. It does not say or even imply that America is safer - no matter how many times the mental midget president spins this and other lies.

Apparently my post included too many George Jr lies and was therefore confusing.

Provided are two hyperlinks to that declassified April intelligence report - that says opposite of what George Jr claims:
Declassified Key Judgments... or
Declassified Key Judgments...

There is no other way to conclude and still be honest. George Jr lies - even claims today before cameras that the US is safer because we invaded Iraq. Notice the silence from so many Cellar dwellers that approve of this president. They cannot defend him because this time his lie is that obviously egregious.

Meanwhile, notice the silence from a loyal George Jr supporter and a strongest advocate of the Iraq war - Rick Santorum. The man is as religous extremist and anti-American as George Jr. In 30+ days, Pennsylvanians can vote to promote the war in Iraq - by voting for Rick Santorum.

Those outside of PA should understand that Santorum is preaching ads to paint Casey as corrupt. My phone does not stop rining with Republican party propaganda. From what I am hearing on phone and seeing in mail, the Republican party is spending something like 4 or 8 times more money to defend Santorum - with negative ads. Do they mention Iraq - and Santorum's approval of torture? No. Why do they forget what George Jr and Rick Santorum both approve of? We are making the world even more dangerous for all Americans. The president violates the 8th Commandment and Rick Santorum (religious extremist Senator) encourages it.

UK intelligence leaks confirm what American intelligence leaks also reported (no matter how the mental midget spins it). From the BBC of 28 Sept 2006:

Quote:

Leak highlights a complex relationship
Many of the statements contained in the officer's notes, for example that the war in Iraq has not gone well and has served as a "recruiting sergeant" for extremists, are in line with other recently published assessments.

However, in some areas the Defence Academy's paper is quite opposed to Downing Street's world view, suggesting that "the UK has followed US policies on the global war on terror at the perceived exclusion of its own interests".

The officer suggests the Pentagon lacks a strategic big idea and that "the US/UK cannot begin to turn the tide until they identify the real enemies... and seek to put in place a better and more just vision".

... the writer does not suggest what that larger vision of prosecuting these conflicts might be.

Instead, he argues that British forces in Iraq "are effectively being held hostage... we are now fighting (and arguably losing or potentially losing) on two fronts".

Of course, this was so obvious even to Cellar Dwellers in May 2004:

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The heads may roll.
We had a window of oppurtunity, typically three or six months, to prove we could improve their plight. Instead we have only replaced a tryrant with streets so unsafe that Iraqis can only hope things will get better. Wwe could not even get the electricity fully restored. Had we installed intelligent leaders in Iraq (ie Gen Garner), then Iraqis would have been building their own country. But instead we even violated principles clearly spelled out in "The Art of War" - a 500 BC book. The principles were that well proven which tells you something about the government that is running this war. We fired anyone who could make the utilities even work. Dear god. Did anyone even bother to learn the lessons of post war Germany? No. The president's knowledge of the world was a one year crash course headed by Conduleeza Rice. He is that mentally ignorant of this world.

And later that May 2004 in Exit Strategy

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Originally Posted by tw

We had 6 month to get it right. Instead we sent in people so mentally deficient as to even disband the Iraqi Army and Police. And yes I do mean so mentally deficient as to not even learn how a WWII American army avoided same problems in Germany. We fired anyone (out of stupidity and political rhetoric reasons) who could have made the electricity and other utilities work. Why? Only because to have such jobs, they had to be Baath party members. Therefore they were not good enough to make the country work again.

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Originally Posted by kitsume

What? Let me get this straight: You expected the US to deploy an army overseas, overthrow a dictator, rebuild the infrastructure we blew to pieces, and restore civillian happiness in a mere six months?

That is exactly what had to happen and that is exactly why planning for the peace must be ongoing before hostilities begin. That was also what a State Department analysis group noted when they also warned of looting. Remember the looting that Rumsfeld and George Jr denied? In thirty some years when another president lies to America, I hope you youngsters remember these 'Deja Vue Vietnam' lessons.

We broke it. Now we own it. But a mental midget president had no idea what Colin Powell was warning. We and Powell did not realize how dumb this president really is.

So how long ago did we know things were getting that bad? Well it depends on whether you were listening to propaganda (especially Fox News) or were listening to facts (with contempt for any logic justified by political rhetoric). Posted even in Oct 2003 were Iraqi conditions (that only get worse) created because "Americans don't do nation building". Undeniable even to the Cellar's most politically extreme because they cannot deny leaked American and British intelligence reports:

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Liberating them against their will.
Bottom line is that Iraqis more want what they once had under Saddam. Security, jobs, and basic services are more important to Iraqis than freedom of speech and no Saddam in their text books. And what did we not provide? Electricty for up to 6 months. Jobs for unemployed army troops - who could have been providing the security and restoring basic services. And security. As far as Iraqis are concerned, each bombing is just another reason to blame Americans.

Tonight on PBS Newshour, what does every Iraqi say they want? Number one want in Iraq is "Security". What did America not provide for half a year in Iraq? Security. Too few troops. No plans. Then we made it even worse by disbanning all soldiers and police. Now Iraqis are suffering from something that they never knew - *kidnappings*. One family has lost both kids for a second time in three months! Kidnapping never happened in Iraq until the Americans liberated crime! It does not matter what Dave thinks. This is want Iraqis see. They don't like what America has forced on them.

Even three years ago in The Cellar was posted the problems in Iraq - if reading factually and not with extremist political bias. We had six months to accomplish what we did not even start until the seventh month. Yes, kitsume, that much must be done that quickly or military victory is lost. Instead, we did nothing as our right wing extremists said we should. We did zero and then made it worse by disbanding the military and police. Only an extremist ignorant wacko would have done that.

Let's see. The United States and UK invaded and conquered all of western Europe in half this "Mission Accomplished" war. We then got European utilities working again in only months. Big difference - then compared to now. Back then our leaders had basic intelligence, did not have an extremist political agenda, learned lessons from history, and did not lie repeatedly.

When do we talk about impeachment?

I wonder if Bush is taking one for the team? Make the public aware how bad things are so they'll get nervous and elect the congressmen he wants.

Makes Bush look bad, but hey, he's not up for election. :confused: