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-   -   The North Korea thread. (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=24004)

glatt 11-23-2010 10:28 AM

The North Korea thread.
 
What the hell is going on over there?

First they sink the South Korean ship, but deny it.
Then South Korea plays war games close to the disputed border.
Then North Korea shells a South Korean island scores of times, killing some people.
And South Korea shells North Korea about double that amount. Damage unknown.

Oh, and this is just after the North shows off a new nuke facility to a western scientist.

Is it just saber rattling, or are we on the verge of a serious fucking war? Should the US do anything, or are we spread too thin already and have enough problems at home? How many simultaneous wars can we fight? At least Iraq is basically over.

North Korea is a backwards ass country, but they are heavily fortified. We can't just go in there. They have a fort on every hill.

What the fuck? I want my peace back.

Spexxvet 11-23-2010 10:42 AM

I hope someone else takes the lead, if there is violence. Certainly China has more influence on NK than we do.

Lamplighter 11-23-2010 10:45 AM

Unfortunately, Jimmy Carter is getting too old to always be our behind-the-scenes negotiator for the US,
and I don't think Hillary has the personal contacts with the NK family to take his place.
Once again they will probably have to call on the Russians and Chinese to keep the peace.

piercehawkeye45 11-23-2010 11:48 AM

Everything I have read has suggested this is just North Korea acting like a little who is looking for attention. Apparently NK is not happy with Obama and SK so they are taking it out this way. Also, with the power transition from Kim Jong-Il to his son happening in the next couple of years I would guess they wouldn't try to start an all out war but you never know.

China would be against an all out war so they would probably stop it from escalating too far.

classicman 11-23-2010 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45 (Post 695755)
Apparently NK is not happy with Obama and SK so they are taking it out this way.

Apparently NK doesn't think Obama has the cajones to do anything about it.
I think its more of a timing issue. We are already spread too thin, Obama is now in re-election mode and its not something the west can really afford to get involved in militarily. It sucks all the way around.

Clodfobble 11-23-2010 01:58 PM

I would think it has less to do with the West, and more to do with making sure no one thinks that there's a power vacuum when the dictatorship transfers to the son. Maybe they're just trying to remind everyone that the son is just as much of a badass as the father is...

Bullitt 11-23-2010 02:14 PM

I think you're onto something there Clod.

piercehawkeye45 11-23-2010 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman (Post 695772)
I think its more of a timing issue. We are already spread too thin, Obama is now in re-election mode and its not something the west can really afford to get involved in militarily. It sucks all the way around.

If it was a timing issue than what would be the incentive for an attack on South Korea? It obviously wasn't self defense. North Korea is making excuses. Also, I'm sure NK knows that the US will not go to war unless an all out war develops so I don't think that factor will have much effect on NK's decision making.

NK recently showed their new nuclear facility to a US nuclear scientist. I don't understand any other reason for doing this unless they are trying to call attention to themselves. Also:

Quote:

One of the analysts who linked the North’s action to food aid was Choi Jin-wook, a North Korea expert at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a research institute in Seoul. “It’s a sign of North Korea’s increasing frustration,” Mr. Choi said.

“Washington has turned a deaf ear to Pyongyang and North Korea is saying, ‘Look here. We’re still alive. We can cause trouble. You can’t ignore us.’ ”

Mr. Choi said North Korea had become frustrated over the Obama administration’s refusal to remove a broad range of sanctions against the regime for its continuing nuclear efforts.

“They see that they can’t pressure Washington,” he said, “so they’ve taken South Korea hostage again.”

“They’re in a desperate situation, and they want food immediately, not next year,” he said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/24/wo..._r=1&ref=world


I'm sure my opinion will change as more information comes out but right now I personally think it is a cry for attention and a front for the transition of power to Kim Jong-Il's son.

Gravdigr 11-23-2010 03:22 PM

I have nothing to back this up, it's just an opinion.

I believe NKorea to be in about the same shape as the USSR toward the end. I doubt NKorea has the wherewithall to actually pull off a protracted engagement of any kind. Prolly don't have enough fuel or ammo. Military might might be highly exaggerated.

footfootfoot 11-23-2010 06:44 PM

Food is popular, even more so with those who haven't got it. I suspect it is a combination of food and the upcoming transfer of power. Although if the son has 1/8th of a brain as soon as his dad kicks it, he should open up his country and be the biggest fucking hero that ever lived.

tw 11-23-2010 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble (Post 695777)
I would think it has less to do with the West, and more to do with making sure no one thinks that there's a power vacuum when the dictatorship transfers to the son.

This is, by far, a more reasonable answer. However, we don't know if this is the father shaking the tree to make his son look strong. It may also be the power brokers reminding the son who really is in charge.

When the father got sick, we don't know who was making decisions. But that is when N Korea did many belligerent activities.

Remember, George Jr was also only a front man. He did not really make decisions. In China, the People's Army also acts independent of the Central government. That was most obvious during the silly spy plane incident. In Iran, Ahmadinejad does not make decision; only puts forth an image. Same may be ongoing in N Korea. We just don't know, with certainty, who really is in charge. But as Clod accurately notes, it is more about saying who holds the power. We just do not know who is really doing the talking.

fo0hzy 11-23-2010 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 695844)
Remember, George Jr was also only a front man. He did not really make decisions..

Seriously?

For fuck's sake...

Lame, lame lame lame :sniff:

Griff 11-24-2010 08:39 AM

It crossed my mind that NK may have a new weapons system they want to test out, so a lot of ships and planes buzzing around could be useful. Iran would probably purchase anything that could humble an aircraft carrier.

freshnesschronic 11-24-2010 08:50 AM

We are providing defenses for South Korea :)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_korea_north1
Quote:

INCHEON, South Korea (Reuters) – A U.S. aircraft carrier group set off for Korean waters on Wednesday, a day after North Korea rained artillery shells on a South Korean island, in a move likely to enrage Pyongyang and unsettle its ally, China.

freshnesschronic 11-24-2010 09:09 AM

I'm no expert on the Korean war or any international relations, but a crazy thing is that all the Koreans are the same people...Koreans are a homogeneous people for centuries but to think that they hate each other so much over ideological philosophies....Maybe it's just me heh.

glatt 11-24-2010 09:34 AM

Jimmy Carter thinks we should talk to North Korea.

I'm not surprised. He's always been a talk to your enemies kind of guy. Give them some token gesture to let them save face.

classicman 11-24-2010 03:04 PM

and then they do it again and want something else or a little more... and then we concede and they do it again and want more and more and more...

Gravdigr 11-24-2010 03:18 PM

:yesnod:

footfootfoot 11-24-2010 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glatt (Post 695932)
Jimmy Carter thinks we should talk to North Korea.

I'm not surprised. He's always been a talk to your enemies kind of guy. Give them some token gesture to let them save face.

Don't underestimate the need to let people save face. Especially when dying is a brighter alternative to losing face.

SamIam 11-24-2010 04:29 PM

1 Attachment(s)
The problem is that the N. Korean populance under Kim il Jong is uneducated, suffering from malnutrition, and mostly only capable of the most menial labor. Neither S. Korea or China (which has a Korean speaking province) is eager to let in a flood of N. Koreans. This only compounds the plight of the N. Korean people who suffer from hunger and lack of a proper diet. The US has been sending in humanitarian aid to N. Korea in exchange for Jong's promise not to escalate his nuclear weapons program.

Jong is playing a game of brinksmanship using his own people as pawns. Not only does he want continued handouts from the US, his hope is to get a nuclear arms treaty similiar to the one India has.

Jong's other concern is that if he allows reforms within N. Korea, his government will become vulnerable and may even fall. He wants assurances from the US that his government or that of his son's will be propped up by Western powers or else.

Jong is a madman, but he is also crazy like a fox.

Here's a picture of Jong relaxing after a long day of playing cat and mouse with the world. What a guy!

TheMercenary 11-25-2010 01:12 PM

Let's send in Jimmy Carter and let him stay there.

classicman 11-25-2010 09:52 PM

Really. Those Jimmy carter years were great weren't they. Ahhh, good times.

tw 11-26-2010 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman (Post 696248)
Really. Those Jimmy carter years were great weren't they. Ahhh, good times.

Political agendas and the resulting overt lies are still alive and well. We know exactly why Jimmy Carter's administration suffered tremendous economics downturns. Another anti-American who was also in denial - Richard Nixon - spent massive moneys on lies - the Vietnam war. When did the debts come due? 1975. When do Mission Accomplished debts come due? Now. How many times must we relive history. And still extremists deny that reality.

Rather than admit or fix the problems he created in 1968, Nixon did things stupid just as laws that made price increases illegal - price controls. How many remember that history. Rather than admit or fix the problem, Gerald Ford simply made it worse. At first he admitted American incomes and living standards must decrease massively to pay for Vietnam, et al. But his advisors talked him out of it. So the entire Gerald Ford economic solution was buttons that read "WIN" (for Whip Inflation Now).

Those who are moderates - and therefore live in the world of reality - learned from history. Jimmy Carter did what was necessary so many years earlier. Volker raised interest rates. 20+% interest rates - punish all Americans for the excesses of anti-American Americans. America continued suffering from the necessary recession in 1981 and 1982. Reagan continued to fix the economy with tax increases in 1983, 1984, and 1987.

Jimmy Carter did what was necessary. It cost him the presidency. Those who know by first learning facts understand the destruction of America created by Nixon's refusal to surrender in Vietnam. And what Jimmy Carter finally did to fix the resulting economic disaster. Amazing how so many listen to political extremists rather than learn facts from history. Posted are those facts including when spread sheets finally report a man made economic calamity.

tw 11-26-2010 05:14 PM

Meanwhile, the N Korean leadership problem will be interesting. Kim Jung Il may have been out of power for a period when he was ill. When he may have suffered a stroke. The resulting power brokers then began belligerent activities that Kim may have been suppressing. Including missile launches and a nuclear explosion. We do not really know who was in power when.

But we do know his 25 year old son has been promoted to be the next leader. If that son's face is any indication, right wing extremist power brokers are chopping at the bit to get at him. They are probably looking at someone too naive to grasp the reins of power. If true, Korea will become a hot spot - IOW a much hotter spot.

We know Jimmy Carter could negotiate a solution to Korea because Kim was so fully in control of his extremists. And we know right wing Republican dominated legislation undermined that deal - and Kim in the eyes of his extremists.

What we do not know is who will be controlling Korea - even with Kim's son as the beloved leader. This is not what extremists and simpletons understand. It is not the soundbyte that only informed Americans learn. But it is the state of Korea. North Korea has a power vacuum now that Kim Sung Il has lost so much control in the past few years. Maybe to a power block of wacko extremists. Hopefully only to moderates who are using belligerence as a cover for their more enlightened perspectives. Informed students of current events are concerned - as we all should be. If wacko extremists get control, then things could actually get nasty.

classicman 11-26-2010 05:32 PM

For one who calls himself a moderate. (That in itself is a joke.)
All you do is bash R's and praise or support D's.
Perhaps YOU are tho only one who doesn't realize what leftist extremist you are.

For those of us who actually are more moderate, you, tommy are good for little more than a giggle.

Undertoad 11-26-2010 05:37 PM

Address the argument, C-man. This kind of sniping is unhelpful.

classicman 11-26-2010 06:07 PM

Which part of his dissertation - the condescending
Quote:

We know why
Who is we and who is he implying they are?

or the
Quote:

Political agendas and the resulting overt lies are still alive and well.
or
Quote:

the political extremist
part repeated ad nauseum?

Never mind - there is no point.

Undertoad 11-26-2010 06:33 PM

Then say nothing.

classicman 11-26-2010 06:57 PM

Yes dad.

piercehawkeye45 11-26-2010 10:35 PM

tw is pretty much on the spot on this one Classic (nevermind the Carter comments, which I have no comment on). Kim has been promoting a lot of family members and other loyals so it seems like they will be running the show until his son is ready to take the reins. China will try to exploit the current situation but they will face mature and experienced family member of Kim, not his son directly, for a while.

It is an extremely interesting and unpredictable situation.

classicman 11-26-2010 11:06 PM

I wasn't referring to his comments on NK. But thanks.

piercehawkeye45 11-27-2010 12:37 AM

You betcha.

plthijinx 11-27-2010 02:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45 (Post 696427)
....It is an extremely interesting and unpredictable situation.

very volitile......

xoxoxoBruce 03-11-2016 04:36 AM

Speaking of North Korea, I was looking at some pictures taken on a trip to North Korea, and the author/photographer made a comment that stopped me dead in my tracks.

Quote:

Not only are the North Koreans shorter on average because of malnutrition (Christopher Hitchens called them a nation of racist dwarfs) [4], it also makes one in four of young men too mentally retarded for military service [5] - too slow to even follow orders...
25% too mentally retarded for military service?! WTF? I mean the whole army can't be high tech specialists, gotta be some grunts.

So I immediately... no that's a lie, I looked at a couple more pictures before it bothered me so much I had to come back to this statement. Now I know it's on the internet so it must be true, but I had to look up the footnote. The footnote is a quote from a book called, "Getting to Yes in Korea" By Walter C. Clemens Jr.

http://cellar.org/2015/footnote5.jpg

Yup, that's what it says on Google Books. My only question is define young men, but that doesn't matter much.

The book is on Amazon for $155 hardcover, $29.46 paperback, and $27.99 Kindle.

So who the hell is this guy and does he know his shit?
Quote:

About the Author

Walter C. Clemens, Jr. is Professor of Political Science at Boston University and Associate, Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. He is the author of America and the World, 1898–2025: Achievements, Failures, Alternative Futures (2000) and a dozen other books including the highly praised Dynamics of International Relations (2d ed. 2004). His op-eds have appeared in the Christian Science Monitor, Los Angeles Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post. Clemens has been a consultant to the U.S. Department of Defense, State Department, and Arms Control Disarmament Agency, and has lectured in Asia, Europe, and Latin America for the U.S. Information Agency and Fulbright programs.
Hmm, that doesn't make the statement true, but the guy has creds. 25% :eek:

Clodfobble 03-12-2016 08:08 AM

"Too retarded for," or "the military can afford to put intelligence requirements in their qualifications" because there's no shortage of people needing a precious state job?

I bet even McDonald's rejects one in four applicants... and no, the pool of fast food applicants is not a representative sample, but the point remains. Turned down 25% is not the same as 25% are retarded.

xoxoxoBruce 03-12-2016 12:51 PM

In North Korea the military is compulsory, so it's one in four of every male reaching military age. Because of malnutrition a lot of them don't.

Clodfobble 03-12-2016 03:52 PM

Well that's true, dead is a pretty retarded pace. :)

sexobon 03-12-2016 05:12 PM

Speculation is that one of their submarines may have just gone to that retarded place. If they've simply defected, I hope we're showing them a good time.

xoxoxoBruce 03-12-2016 08:37 PM

We were tracking them when they disappeared. I'm betting they are hiding on the bottom... permanently.

sexobon 03-12-2016 11:00 PM

Maybe the crew were borderline 25%ers.


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