Er' She Blows
 

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey
Irene Jose Katia Lee Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe
Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
are tropical storms for this year.

Arlene already happened in late June. Made landfall in southern TX and Northern Mexico where rain was welcome due to drought.

A second tropical depression just formed north of Bermuda. And not expected to be serious. More interesting is the difference from last year. So far storm tracks have been more northerly. Last year, all storms remained south.

Unusually warm air during the spring resulted in a most violent tornado season. But the Gulf and Caribbean have not been unusually warm. Only about 28 degrees. Meaning that any early season hurricanes are unlikely to be violent.

Predictions are for 16 names storms. 9 to become hurricanes. 5 to be severe. And a 72% chance of at least one category 3 or higher hurricane striking the US mainland. This is traditionally only 52%. Predictions from the past few years have been extraordinarily accurate.

The eastern Pacific already had an above normal two hurricanes in June. One was a category four. As usual, it headed for San Diego only to peter out off Baja.

Admit it: danger aside, you really like it when a hurricane makes landfall, don't you?

Like a woman, it comes hot and wet and get away taking the car and house. ;)

Don't worry about Bret. He's staying safely away. Cindy is next. Like a woman ...

I'm waiting for Ophelia. Never knew the weather service was so literary.

A west coast hurricane may be named Xina. Such hurricanes do not come from the Amazon.

Ophelia came from Denmark, as I recall. This global warming thing is really getting out of hand when hurricanes start to form in the North Sea. :thepain:

Cindy popped up unexpectedly in the North Atlantic due east of Nova Scotia. Destination: UK.

Bret is chasing her.

Fairly likely that tropical storm Emily will strike the US somewhere in the Gulf in the next seven days. The Gulf of Mexico is not so warm this year (except some isolated spots on the western FL coast). If the Gulf does not heat up quickly, Emily is unlikely to be a serious hurricane. And may be quite welcome to a coastline suffering a drought.

Its been a boring 'cane season this year since so many storms took a beeline for the UK or disintegrated over the Yucatan Peninsula. Even Emily took a right turn as it was getting interesting.

The Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic are cooler this year. Most of the warm water remains on both sides of Florida. Irene hit Puerto Rico and intensified into the first hurricane. Its projected track is across the warmest waters that only exist off both sides of Florida. That makes it a storm worth watching since its track on either side of FL can make is a serious problem starting Friday. Especially if it tracks west of FL.

The Cellar might appreciate that rain next week to wash mud off of UT's car.

Um, sorry, but YES.

Of course I deplore any loss of life or injury and the damage to livelihoods.
But I live in a protected Vale almost like fairy-story-land.
The closest I ever got to extreme weather growing up was reading A High Wind In Jamaica.

(Yes, the bit with the crocodile made me melt a little too).

Yikes!
It's not every day you see a hurricane forecast cone pointed into the Northeast.

In fact, the concern among meteorologists is high. National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read: "We are very concerned with what's going to happen in New England. The benchmark is the 1938 hurricane. I am very concerned with what will happen there."

The potential is real for the strongest hurricane hit on the Northeast in at least a couple decades this weekend!

A New Orleans concern exists if a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane hits Nassau County (Long Island). The resulting tidal surge (due to counter-clockwise winds) would drive water up a funnel that feeds the Hudson and Raritan Rivers. A ten foot surge means massive flooding of NYC tunnels and other critical infrastructure.

New Jersey has not suffered a hurricane hit in over 100 years. That coastline is also at great risk.

Last track put Irene pointed towards Suffolk County (Sag Harbor or the Hamptons). A previous 'cane on that track in 1938 drove a massive flood into all major cities in Rhode Island.

Did they name them back then? Old timers talk about roofs lost but I think they mean Hazel in '54.

I investigated a glow on the horizon last night. It did turn out to be a gas flare, which begs the question how would that handle hurricane force winds...?

I was at Harvey's lake when Ivan (2004) passed through. The Susquehanna at Tunkhannock was almost to the bottom of the 309 bridge and man-hole covers were blown off in Wilkes Barre.

I also remember Agnes (1972 - was tent camping outside of Avalon, NJ), Floyd (1999 caused 6 deaths in PA) , and Gloria (1985) effecting PA/NJ.

Yesterday's track put it over Suffolk County Long Island. Today's track puts it back on Nassau County - maybe skirting Queens. Difference between a bad storm and a major disaster can be that fine.

The 1938 Hurricane through Providence, Rhode Island did not have a name. And was disastrous, in part, because nobody knew it was coming every after it had devastated Long Island. It was a wakeup called for the Weather Service.

I saw pics from my parents as children from that Hurricane.
We were actually looking at some of them a couple weeks ago when my nieces were in town.

Residents in east coast US states should be very concerned. Even neighbors of the cellar should be taking precautions. Irene has taken a more western path. Got into warmer water. The new projection puts it atop the entire Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts. That would mean less storm power to harm NYC. And destructive winds even in Pennsylvania.

East coast Americans should have their preparations completely by Friday night (NC) or Saturday (NJ) in part because a new projection says this storm will also move much slower; do more damage. This one should not be taken lightly. I don't think I have seen a more threatening storm on the so unprepared parts of the east coast in 30 years. NJ and NYC are very vulnerable due to complacency. NJ has not had a hurricane in over 100 years.

These things usually move east at the last moment. But informed residents learn you must prepare for seven to not be harmed by the eigth.

Predictions have moved a little west, Delaware (home of tax-free shopping, and the Cellar) and south New Jersey are now more in the target for extended tropical force winds. Jersey shore may see >60 MPH winds.

Numerous friends have homes on the barrier Islands of Cape May County. Already traffic has been heavy outgoing on the Garden State Parkway. None were able to get to their homes; to prepare them for a blow. Probably all barrier islands will be flooded. Flooding will probably be at least 6 feet higher than any previous storm has done.

Barrier island towns will be blocking incoming access on Friday. Orders are to evacuate the county. No exceptions for anyone east of Route 9. That will take 36 hours.

Some maps. Cape May County is from Cape May to Ocean City and Woodbine. The nearest safe evacuation locations are in Vineland and Millville. Everything south and east of that has flood risks.
[Cape May County

Examples of responses from other counties.

Rehoboth Beach, Dewey Beach, and Fenwick Island are part of Sussex County, Delaware. This county has not been taking the storm as seriously. Did not call for a mandatory evacuation until late Thursday night. Still have not defined evacuation centers. Most of the outgoing traffic only has three roads - Routes 1, 28, or 54.
Map of Sussex County

Sea Bright NJ is the most northern of NJ barrier island towns and part of Monmouth County. Located just across from the Atlantic Highlands and Rumson (home of Bruce Springsteen). Residents need only go to Atlantic highlands to be 100 feet above the water. Most of the town is dependent on a 30 foot high rock seawall that has been routinely overwashed during major storms. Sea Bright will flood. However a storm that passes off shore will drive a major tidal surge into a box that include NYC, Lower NY Bay, the Raritan River, and Sandy Hook Bay. Flooding should back up into rivers behind Sea Bright. That can mean flooding as far west of Rumson as in Red Bank. Therefore the nearest evacuation centers are even farther west (inland) of Red Bank and the Garden State Parkway in Holmdel.

Between Cape May and Monmouth Counties are the home of New Yorkers pretending to be Jersey Shore residents (ie Snookie). Ocean County barrier islands include Seaside Heights, Surf City, and Barnegat. This county has no mandatory evacuations except for the barrier islands after Friday. No evacuation centers have been announced. This county appears to be least concerned.

Some landmarks and names to better understand future news reports on what may or may not be a catastrophic storm.

The maps right now are looking a bit better now for the DC region. It's tracking a bit east again, so instead of looking at probable 50 MPH winds, it's looking more likely that we'll be getting 30 MPH winds or so. Keep veering east baby. Others can have the bragging rights of dealing with the fierce hurricane. Give me those wimpy winds.

*fingers crossed*


The NC Outer Banks are doomed though.

Recently spotted in MSN:

come on, Irene:

yeah... i know... just go with it

Bukkake?

One of Lil' Griff's teammates was singing that at field hockey last night in honor of the coming storm.

Anyone in the world can now watch Irene futilely try to take out the Cellar:
Irene

for some really perverse reason I want it to take out NYC.

If, as, when Irene comes along - please check in guys over there. I want to know you're all OK, hey?

It's moved a little further east which puts most of us fairly out of danger.. there is only a 5% chance of 58mph winds in Philly/eastern PA. Unless I forget my dwellars there is only one in danger from winds... big w00dy.

I'm in cherry hill right now. I think woody is near Camden.

Isn't bbro in the line of fire?

Ah I had w00dy pegged further in Jersey but I think you're right. bbro's in Raleigh which looks like tropical storm wind territory too and not the 58-mph sustained wind area.

A bullet went over my left ear. Therefore I was never in danger. The latest hurricane track takes it slightly east - headed for Suffolk County. That much change in direction means most danger is averted. Irene moved 35 miles east taking the blunt of a threat away from land. Unlike New Orleans, NYC averted a bullet.

Irene hit NC only as a category 1 hurricane. It lost power in 82 degree (28 degree C) water.

Well, the local gossip is on the beach in Ocean City and Atlantic City. Hyping already 'severe' waves. Look behind those reporters. Water is flat. How to get so many people to not heed warnings next time? Let anyone assume the local gossip has any credibility.

The local gossip also compares this storm to Hurricane Floyd that passed over the Jersey coast maybe five years ago. Floyd created 30+ foot waves off NC. They forgot to mention that Floyd was not even a tropical storm when it got to Cape May.

Meanwhile Irene only created 27 foot waves. A lesser 'cane.

Hurricane Donna in 1962 was a major threat. Donna also moved east. Hit Suffolk County; never hit NJ. Also did not come close enough to NYC to drive a massive storm surge into a confined box called Lower New York / Sandy Hook / Raritan Bay. Another bullet that passed just over the left ear. will do almost no damage.

Those listening to the local gossip will now assume they are smarter. Because this 'cane (that has not yet arrived) will not do what it promised. Many will now stay for every future hurricane because they are smarter; because they are listening and learning from the local gossip.

Evacuations like this are essential for eight such hurricanes. Because only one does serious damage.

The honeymoon is over. We now learn what Irene looks like once the makeup is off. At least we had the anticipation?


BTW, I was viewing damage created by Mission Accomplished. Something approaching half the critical data buoys are defective. Some have been in need of service even since early 2010. Another tribute to wackos who saved America from Saddam's WMDs.

I just finished getting ready. Even with it tracking to the east, we are supposed to get sustained 30-45 mph winds, and gusts in the 50-55 range. 55 is powerful. That's enough to pick up a garbage can and throw it through your window, or rip shingles off your roof.

I just brought in all my lawn furniture, tied up my garbage cans, and switched out the screens for the storm windows on the north and east side of the house.

Now the only thing I'm worried about is the rain. We're supposed to get 1 to 4.5 inches. If we get 4.5 inches, our basement is going to flood just from the roof and yard runoff. If the power goes out, the sump pump won't work. Plus, I'll probably be asleep, so won't be monitoring it.

I am ready. All the stuff is off my porch. I went to Costco yesterday with a friend and I have an industrial pack of canned chicken. And I have plenty of liquor.

Tomorrow morning, however, I am due at the Emergency Operations Center at 0600 to staff the Rumor Control Line. Therefore, I will likely not be able to check in until it's all over. I should be there until 1800, but they could shut Rumor Control down early and send us home.

A friend was supposed to do it with me, but he just pussied out. I'm hoping that he will change his mind ... because he was going to stay over tonight and drive.

Do you tell callers to check Snopes?

Should the opportunity present itself, I will.

Recorded line, though.

My BF was practicing with me ... "So, is this hurricane hitting so soon after the earthquake evidence of the Wrath of the Lord?"

"Yes, sir. You should not have eaten of the kid boiled in it's mother's milk or gotten that tattoo. You'll need to provide a burnt offering so that the odor may be pleasing to the Lord as redress."

That sounds like fun!

Power is out. Storm is raging. Gonna go lay in bed in the dark and sweat. Shitski.

Greetings from the Rumor Control Center. I got called in early. I raised my hand to ask a question during the initial briefing and I'm the Rumor Control Manager. I cam calmly assure you that no tornadoes have touched down in the County, but several basement apartment laundry rooms are taking water. There is a box of Geiger counters down the hall from my office.

You get the coolest jobs!

Awesome!!

That's what really sucks about it. It's too hot to enjoy.

It was windy and rainy. We never lost power. Our basement didn't flood. The newspaper had even been delivered when I got up this morning. Excellent news on all fronts.

Our neighbors moved their cars out of their driveway, and there is a big dead tree limb in their place. But the cars look fine. I wonder what the story is there?

As I went to bed, the sustained winds were around 20-25 mph, and the maximum gusts were around 40 mph. Not too windy at all.

How hot is it?

Hotter than a snake's ass in a wagon rut?

I'm alive and well. Never lost power. One major limb down, luckily fell into the street. Leaves all over the ground.

Lights just flickered...

Uh oh

Finally home, never lost power and my rugs aren't squishy. News to sleep but I'm not tired yet. Or I am and my brain doesn't realize it.

Would be cool if it were a job, but its volunteer. They did feed me, though. I could have stayed for breakfast but decided to pass on it because the rivers haven't crested yet, and u wanted to he home before they do. On the upside, I know where the nearest Red Cross shelter is set up.

In addition to what I was there for, I managed to do something else to help out some guys involved in the storm response.

Damn Spexxie, which one did you lose?
If you collect it from the street and pack it in ice they may be able to reattach...

My favorite call ...

0330 hours: Is the Costco Warehouse Store going to be open?

Ma'am, the county's emergency management doesn't track that information. My best advice to you is to call the store during their regular business hours.

:)

We only lost power for 1/2 hour. We'll see how the rest of the day goes.

The sun just broke through! I see patches of blue sky.

Didn't lose power... didn't lose the big tree that sits in the water-saturated area.

It is cool here, still 63F with steady rain and wind.

Lost power from around 9pm to 4am & had water come in through back basement window. We were prepared.
Nothing unusual, we typically lose power during any hearty thunderstorm.
1 tree down out back, not mine.
Hung out with my kids and a neighbor - had a good time chillin'.

Though it peaked at fucking 112 yesterday, I'm told that some of that hurricane weather is going to slowly blow across our way and get the temps down to the 90s next week. Thanks for taking one for the team, guys!