Brexit
 

I've been avoiding talking about the upcoming EU Referendum, because I find the whole thing deeply depressing. I will be voting to remain in the EU, but I fear that the Brexiters will win the day and we will be leaving the EU shortly. I think this will be damaging to our country in many ways. I also think it will be damaging to Europe.

But that's not really why I'm posting - I don't know if y'all have seen the news about the recent killing of an MP in Yorkshire? The killer shouted 'Britain First' as he attacked. The MP was a 'pro-immigration' MP, by which I mean she was against the anti-immigration rhetoric and was proud of the multicultural nature of her constituency.

It saddens me that this has happened. It would sadden me whatever her political stripe - there is no room for violence and assassination in a democratic state. But it also saddens me because she was one of the good ones. She was a hardworking constituency MP, going to bat for her constituents time and again and always available to them through surgeries and visits. She was a lovely woman.

It is also a shocking thing for it to happen so close to home. Kirklees, the borough in which her constituency sits is one of the neighbouring boroughs to mine. Our two boroughs often collaborate and pool resources on things - there are a number of services, for instance that our two councils share responsibility and oversight for.

It's a wake up call, I think, as to just how deep seated the tensions over immigration and Britain's EU membership run. We are not a happy land right now.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...west-yorkshire

Had she previously ever met with her killer during a surgery?

No reason for emotions over either topic. Neither issue threatens anyone's health and well being. But to gain power, then incite adults who are still children to become emotional. Create problems where none should or would exist.

Brexit makes no sense to an adult. But it makes complete sense when hypes an issue to obtain power. To even lie about reasons for leaving such as money. Incite adults who are still children into an emotional tizzy - to even murder. Its easy especially when so many today only hear soundbytes; do not read anything more than one paragraph long. Become uneducated. And therefore cannot be a moderate.

Extremists know how to obtain power. She is their victim.

I think I would be on the Remain side whilst secretly wanting to preserve what is uniquely British. (Cheddar, Her Maj, and football hooliganism. Well do keep the cheese)

Just browsing around, I found a map of pro and anti MP districts and, interestingly, there was no geographic unity to it, except for Scotland who are firmly Remain.

It fails to explain why they were so interested in breaking off Britain and not so interested in breaking off EU.

Without having a single clue, I'll guess that is because what is Scottish is still firmly Scottish, and nobody is going to threaten that, even if the occasional terrorist needs to be kicked in the bollocks at the airport.

I thought it was interesting he preferred to stab her and only resorted to the gun in his bag when interference from the other guy fucked up his plans.


This poll claims the key to the decision process on Brexit is trust in leadership.

Dana, I don't know if this helps but the referendum is a glorified opinion poll and any decision to leave still depends on parliament which is around 90% remain. Can't remember where I saw this but the whole thing is a Tory smoke screen ...

Sent by thought transference

Of course Limey is correct, as always. :notworthy Being part of the power behind the throne has informational privilege.
link

Doesn't mean we're not in for a bumpy ride in the case of a No vote ...

Sent by thought transference

So, the killing of that MP was just a confidence exercise in preparation for later?

That is reassuring, Limey. I don't know very much about it all tbh. As I say, the whole thing depresses me no end, so I have avoided reading much about it. The only thing I do know is that I'd rather we remain in Europe than leave. My view pretty much corresponds with UT's: remain whilst maintaining what is uniquely British.

That poll on trust is fascinating.

Probably just wanted to ensure his representative was feeling his pain.

The marked absence of facts has characterised this whole campaign.
In a general election all manner of promises, most of them undeliverable, will be made and the electorate generally accepts that, voting out of political tribal loyalty or simply frustration.
Well, it'll keep the other lot out, won't it?
Given the nature of the question, there should be at least some fairly concrete facts on which to base your voting decision but what do we have?
The Remain camp has issued all manner of dire warnings short of seven days of darkness laying over the face of the land, in the event of a vote to leave and the Leave campaign doesn't seem to have anything coherent to say.
It doesn't help that there isn't even a split along party lines and it has produced some very odd political alliances.

So, what do I do on Thursday? Sit on my hands and blame everybody else when it all goes wrong?
Whatever happens there's going to be some almighty upheaval one way or another in the following months.
Without giving too much away, I'm at an age (don't ask) where the health of my pension fund is becoming something of a concern.
Whatever the result, I've no doubt there will be stock market upheaval from 0830 on Friday morning so that noise you'll hear will be my pension fund heading south at Mach 2.

One of the reasons I want to remain, is that I believe membership of Europe provides a last line of defence against some of our government's most extreme policies. For example, look at what happened with the so-called bedroom tax. It's been a disastrous policy overalll, but some of the worst affected were people with disabilities or long term illnesses. A group of people badly affected by the policy were able to take their case to the high court on the grounds that it infringed their human rights according to european law.

And though our country has opted out of many of the strictures on employment, there are still many employment rights that have come from membership of the union.

I fear the loss of that last line of defence, whether the conservatives stay in power of labour get back in. All the main parties (Corbyn notwithstanding) seem to follow a neo-con path on policies, that are downright damaging to the social fabric of this country.

I also, at an emotional level, still retain a belief in the ideal of European unity. I don't want our country to go back into 'Splendid Isolation'.

Most of all, I think that remaining would not make life noticeably worse than it is now. Remain may well do so.

So - for me it is a mixture of positive and negative reasons for voting to stay.

Circumstances within the EU have changed enough since the last referendum to trigger a new one. There's a Wiki article about it, the tone of which appears relatively neutral. It conveniently outlines many of the considerations in one place. Perhaps it would serve as a refresher and spark greater insight into how the possible outcomes may affect you.

The main article: United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

The pertinent considerations subparagraph: Hypothesised results of a withdrawal

Those silly little blimps are how adults make money at the expense of the emotional. Those blimps do not define market growth.

But leaving the EU will result in less UK growth - in the long term. Whereas markets will still grow, that growth will be stunted. Nothing good is provided by Brexit. Emotions that justify Brexit even murder politicians. That says much about the intelligence promoting Brexit.

That subjects like DanaC feel they need the EU to protect them from their own government says more.

Ahem - citizens not subjects.

Ahem! http://cellar.org/2016/aqueen.jpg You beg my pardon.

Nope. Legally we are citizens. There's a very small number of people who are legally 'subjects'.



Incidentally, here's John Oliver's take on the matter:

It's not what you think you are, but how the government views you in legal dealings. You are still subjects of the powers that be. Off with their heads! :p:

And I repeat:

;p

It would be incorrect to put Pug pee in your tea, but when the Queen says you must, the government says you must, the power says you must, you must.

I think she's saying that as of 1 January 1983 it's PC to say BC and that's no BS.

We'll I'm a strange beastie, I vote SNP but will be voting out in the Ref, why because the EU has morphed into a many headed monster and it is not what we voted for in the 70's.
Then it was about economic union as a trading block against the economic giant the USA, not as it's turning into a united states of Europe with Germany and France calling the shots.
Despite what the official SNP stance is there are many in the party against the EU but they may toe the party line in the hope of another independence ref.
There is also the immigration issue, now before I'm shouted down as a racist please hear me out I have no qualms about any creed colour of anyone wishing to come to the UK to better themselves work and contribute, but successive governments have not funded public services to cope.
Where I live it take on average 3 weeks to see a Doctor that's how I ended up in hospital with a pulmonary embolism recently and nearly died, just because I couldn't get a doctors appointment to check me over early enough.

Is there an issue with Eastern Europeans taking up immigration slots in GB that would have been Pakistani or Indian? I heard someone selling the idea that British Curry was suffering from a lack of knowledgeable cooks. Is Britain losing its Britishness?

This whole mess exists because David Cameron did not even have balls to take on the issue. As a result, his own party and their coalition partner are fractured. He created this mess by not acting as a leader.

Moving on, irrelevant to what happens tomorrow, what will happen to Britian's leaders? If Brexit is approved, will Scotland withdrawal from the UK? That is likely.

A problem directly traceable to so many Britains who do not even know who represents them in Brussels and have no idea how the European Parliament works or is even structured. Ignorance means emotions create decisions.

Fuck me, tw, not one mention of children ;p

I jest - and very much agree.

personally, I don't see that this referendum was necessary or desirable. This was something that required leadership. The public are being asked to vote on something that is so mired in decades of misinformation and propaganda, even many who are relatively politically engaged have very little understanding of the facts of EU membership.

All I know is that the EU has too many regulations that mention the word pillow!

A steady trickle of needy underclass could break Socialism once the masses realize their cut is being taken... how quickly things are changing

http://cellar.org/2016/immigrrants-pct.jpg

The US has managed it all along as a wholly immigrant nation; the immigrants become successful in their second and third generations, and assimilate, so they're productive and no longer needy. This will happen in Britain too, if the economy and the people accept this fate.

The tweaker said this about his illegal Mexican: "His kid went to American school, now he's an American."

As goes Rolls Royce, so goes the nation.

There'd an element of that to British society as well UT. Some of the biggest voices against the current immigrants are the children and grandchildren of yesterday's immigrants. Complaining about immigration is practically a national characteristic.

But they were mostly immigrants from the empire. They had already been schooled to accept British superiority and prepared to adjust their lives to the British norm as best they could. They were not coming in demanding the locals bend to their culture, adjust to their aspirations, accept them on their terms.

Not one major business group or financial organization approves of Brexit. If facts are that overwhelming, then why do so many want Brexit? A perfect example. Many adults still think like children (for the same reason so many also knew Saddam had WMDs). If thinking logically, then Brexit is clearly undesirable.

Why do so many want Brexit? Because brainwashing works on those who make decisions based only using emotions. Those are adults who still think like children.

Again, not one valid fact justifies or says Brexit is desirable or good. Virtually every major business and finance organization says Brexit is bad. How many bothered to even learn that fact before making a conclusion?

That is a difference between a moderate and an extremist (active or potential). Moderates learn facts with numbers before making a conclusion. Extremists entertain their emotions - somehow know immediately what to believe. Brexit demonstrates how many adults are still children.

And if we know anything, we know those folks can absolutely be trusted and want only what is best for all.

(he said half joking)

Business groups and financial organizations are usually run by top management...

Some top management is extremely patriotic. They innovate. They empower their workers. Their desire for better products is, for example, why the American economy is so robust and still #1. Those should not be confused with people such as Donald Trump, Rick Wagoner, Carly Fiorina, Dick Cheney, Martin Shkreli, or George Jr whose only interests were self servicing and classic anti-humaity and anti-American. Whose actions did so much harm to America.

And still, not one honest and comprehensive fact (with perspective) recommends Brexit. Vote should be that one sided if enough adults are adult.

Brexit: capable of turning usually humorful and interesting facebook friends into utter wankers.

To my colonial eye, Brexit is not about business. It is about nationalism vs globalism. The EU is a dictatorship, pure and simple. I admit, I have my hands full following our own troubles and have not spared much time for our UK allies' troubles, yet I do kind of read things. Like this article, by a British citizen who is in a better position to know what is happening there. I believe him, and Boris Johnson, former mayor of London. I have listened to Boris make his case and I think he is right. Leave the EU and let it fall apart. The UK is not the only country that is getting tired of being dictated to by Brussels. Germany and France, among others, are about ready to leave and are probably only waiting to see what happens to the UK first. If the sky doesn't fall in on the Brits, they will likely follow soon after.

In my humble opinion, anything that monkey wrenches globalism is a good thing.

That makes it sound like they're an external power dictating to us. We are part of that power. Brussels is us and we are Brussels.

Of all the EU nations we have less to gripe about in terms of dictatorship than any. We have negotiated so many opt outs, the rest of the EU has bent over backwards to accommodate Britain's individualism. We are not even a member of the eurozone - we kept our own currency.

As for globalisation - Boris is a neo-con. He wants to free up the British elite to be part of a whole different kind of globalisation. Free from EU and its insistence that things like bankers' bonuses should have some sort of limit or that workers' rights should have some sort of protection.

looks like exit at this hour, exit leading by 750k votes

Free Scotland in 5 4 3...

The Markets don't like the Brexit

Analysis of the vote says much about why that decision was made. For example, N Ireland and Scotland clearly did not want Brexit. The young clearly did not want Brexit. A vast majority who voted for it were older, white, less educated, and predominately from the midlands. These people have two gripes: income and immigration.

Brexit is about business and the many other economic and social aspects possible or improved because of business.

Their first complaint is accurate. Incomes have been stagnant. Innovation is the only source of increasing incomes. Britain (like the US) has seen diminishing innovation as more are educated in business rather than in productive disciplines. Voters did not blame the reason or resulting symptoms for stagnant incomes. That required learning facts while ignoring subjective soundbytes. Extremists successfully promoted a 'blame them others' mentality. EU was easy to blame using myths and outright lies such as globalization, people with accents, and European dictatorship. Especially since most Britains could not even name who they elected to Brussels. Extremists survive on myths that promote misdirected hate and fear.

Immigrants are numerous in a nation called New York State. Does NY get upset because so many valley girls from California now live there? Of course not. New Yorkers are not that dumb. Immigrants from other states are essential to growth and wealth of a union, nation, or state. Extremists successfully promoted hate of 'them' to a white, mostly blue collar Britain. Successfully blamed stagnant incomes on what is really a significant reason why their incomes have not dropped - immigrants and foreigners.

Soundbytes are easier to promote than reality. So as one said, "Nobody has withdrawn from the EU. So let's give it a go." Reasoning not based in educated or logical thought. But inspired by blaming others combined with emotion and rhetoric.

British pound has already fallen to lowest levels in 30 years. That will increase cost of living. Brexit supporters will not notice how much damage they have done because significant damage will appear in two and six years from now. We know this will create conflict and stress in culture, employment, trade, and national defense. Virtually every person educated in these various aspects have said so. It is that obvious. The emotional educated by soundbytes tend to forget events even six months ago. So they will not blame themselves.

Questions: should Scotland and N Ireland withdrawal from the UK. No longer any reason for not doing so. Since extremists say this is good; Scotland might. N Ireland probably will not reunite with Ireland. But they should consider it.

Britain may have started a process to become a second class nation. Will not be apparent this year. Because we know a nation's fabric is measured by its product. What is done productively today does not appear in standards of living for typically four or ten years. In twenty years, damage done by so many easily manipulated by extremists rhetoric will become apparent. Destructive Britains will blame other (simplistic) factors rather than the reason why all those degrading factors exist.

Britain's vote is praised by who? Right wing extremists in Denmark, Netherlands, Italy, and France. Extremists (ie Milosevic, bin Laden, Mugabee, and Hitler) need disunity and hate to obtain power. That should have had attention of so many who, instead, voted to do damage. That means learning what makes a productive and safer country.

US works because states, for example, do not stupidly call for NYexit. Now we learn how much damage is created by extremist rhetoric. We know it will be destructive. Only question is by how much. Scotland should withdrawal from a nation that no longer understands a well proven expression, "United we stand; divided we fall."

No surprise. Donald Trump loves Brexit. Resulting hate, pain, problems, and disunity promote extremists (and egotists) who crave power. Only extremists want that and everything else associated with that hate, dictatorship, concentration of wealth and what extremists most love - war.

Who wanted to advance the UK? The young. Scotland and Ireland. Londoners. Who blamed others because extremists (ie Boris Johnson) so easily manipulated them using half truths, intentional lies, and emotion?

Perhaps the masses will learn to vote correctly if the people who are better than them, insult them even harder.


...or will the "betters" will learn that insulting the masses has the opposite of the intended effect.

Trump 2016. Because fuck you.

Voters learn that voting matters.

I wonder if, now that reality is setting in, politicians could win the next election by promising to cancel the Brexit.

Interesting article here, suggesting that Boris and his coterie were actually hoping to lose by a narrow margin. That they would gain the political capital of having stood up for Britain and weakened Cameron and his ilk within the party, without having to go through the pain of an actual brexit.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...osts-of-brexit

Personally, I find the whole thing thoroughly depressing. The Leave campaign has outright lied to us on so many issues. The Remain camp frankly weren't much better with their scaremongering - but the outright lies from the Leave campaign were breathtaking. They were already distancing themselves from them, less than 12 hours after the polling stations closed. The campaign promise that all that money we've been sending to the EU every week would go to the NHS? No, no that's not happening. And so it begins.

They have launched a wrecking ball at our country. They have sold us a lie. Leaving the EU will not fix the things they claimed it will fix. The biggie, the one most people who voted to Leave seem to have taken most to heart is that this will allow Britain to reduce immigration. It won't. There will be no salve to the troubles of the working class from this decision. All it has done and will do is destablise the country and economy even further. This is the beginning of major fragmentation.

I hope I'm wrong - I really do.

This sums up the Leave campaign for me:

http://cached.imagescaler.hbpl.co.uk...6023432856.jpg

This is what did it. Anti-immigration in its ugliest form. It it resonates pretty uncomfortably with a nazi propaganda film in its visual style:

http://indy100.independent.co.uk/ima...27-1a0i9s8.jpg

Among lies easily promoted to the most easily brainwash was £20 billion given away to the EU annually. Observe what happened today.

Extremists hate institutions that are essential such as Central Banks. So that Britains will have a paycheck next week, the Bank of England spent £250 billion just today to support the pound. What extremists hate, ironically, saved the pound today and their paychecks this week.

If pound sterling continues to drop (since it is now regarded less stable and less desirable then the Chinese Yuan), then even more money must disappear in UK economy. The naive must deny that £250 billion to deny brainwashing.

Pound will rise some. Either way, Bank of England must spend more to protect the pound at higher costs. Either way, UK lost £billions only in one day because so many voters voted their emotions. Many business deals once done in pounds must be done in Dollars, Euros, Yuan, and Yen. Pound sterling will not longer be regarded safe enough for tranactions without some additional concessions British companies will pay penalties to banks and fat cat financial institutions to complete business deals once done almost transparently when part of the EU.

I was struck by Boris Johnson's contrite speech. He should have been cooing like an egotistical Donald Trump. Maybe he was trying to not alienate most of his party who regard him as Republicans regard Trump. Guardian article makes sense even though some is only speculation that connects the dots. But Johnson's objective was to achieve power at any expense. That is his history.

EU leaders are blunt. Britain must leave as fast as possible no matter how destructive those actions may be to Britain. No mercy. EU leaders have implied Article 50 will be executed vicious - as it should be to avert uncertainty. Expect them to also protect themselves at the expense of Britain. British representatives in the EU Parliament now have virtually no power and have contempt from their peers. Expect Britain to be handled with the disrespect it has earned.

Silver lining - it's probably going to be a very good time to buy stock.

These events are what currency traders dream of. Profit margin on currency trades are typically tenths of a percent. People such as George Soros have made fortunes trading at the expense of a country's Central Bank when that country had contempt for its economy. This is as much as 10% profit margins in only weeks or months - if one understands that market. Plenty of money to be made because the Bank of England has been forced to lose so many billions of pounds to protect liquidity.

Not good. Banking and Financial makes up a huge part of the UK economy; some 10-12% of GDP, from what I understand. One of the reasons is that London is the top trading market for the Euro. Except ... whoops, the only reason that the financial services in London can trade the Euro is because it is part of the EU. That access is going to be cut off now - apart from the natural unwillingness of the EU to make any exceptions for this, there are financial centers in Frankfurt, Paris and Brussels that will gladly take over that business. In addition, the UK financial services will also lose free access to the European market - which severely curtails the usefulness of UK offices.

In short, absent an absurdly unlikely deal for the UK, the financial sector in the country is facing a devastating period of uncertainty, most likely terminated by the loss of tens of thousands of jobs. There is a reason why banking services were hardest hit on the stock markets once the verdict was in and rumors of massive cuts started almost immediately.

In addition, new investments in the UK are screeching to a halt right now. No sane industry is going to spend money in a place where they don't know what the future trading conditions are going to be like, and - absent a truly remarkable deal - the UK is going to be prioritized a lot lower going forward. The UK may be the world's (now) sixth largest economy, but Germany and France are - as of this morning - both bigger, - and for most companies free access to the Eurozone will be more important than free access to the UK.

There was an old joke about "Holy Roman Empire" being neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire. We now have a new iteration of this joke: the "United Kingdom" is not united. It is split right down the middle, and some regions are poles apart from others (e.g. Scotland vs. rural England).

And yes, all evidence points to the EU wanting to make an example of UK, lest there is a domino effect: "if you vote to get out, we will screw you up royally". Now that just reinforces the prejudice that those Eurocrats are bastards now, didn't it? Well played from both sides.

http://rs370.pbsrc.com/albums/oo148/...joker.gif~c200

I wonder if the Queen, through the new PM, will say no?

The Queen has very little actual power. Or, more accurately, the Queen has nominal powers which if ever used would signal the end of the monarchy. The crown stays aloof from political decisions, they don't even publicly declare positions on anything. They adhere to a kind of constitutional neutrality. It was a potential scandal brewing when it was discovered that Charles had written to the prime minister expressing a view on some minor matter.

And continuing the climb down from all their promises of what Brexit would mean for the UK:


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...b0be24d34f6017


All the so-called benefits of Brexit with which they sold the idea to the voters are falling by the wayside already. So what exactly have we, the ordinary people, gained? There won't be additional money for the NHS, the immigration situation won't change. These were the two core planks of the Brexit campaign. Most people I know who voted to Leave did so because they thought the money saved would boost the NHS and other services and because they thought it would end what they saw as an onslaught of immigration.

We've crippled our nation, for what?

To make it less attractive to immigrants 'cause many of them are fussy. It's a technique.

I saw it expressed as trading one group of distant oligarchs for a nearer group but I doubt any of your masters were upended. I'd guess that's the last popular vote you'll see related to the EU.

Petition for 2nd EU vote hits 1 million signatures

Heard, still hearing, a lot on the exit...whole whack of folks for and against...all manner of dire consequence or heavenly reward foisted up as a result of leaving or staying.

Being a horrid, 'does not play well with others', type, I think the UK will (over the long haul) profit from the exit...in the short term, however, Britain will suffer (the EU is gonna try real hard to punish the UK).

Hunker down and wait it out.