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I don't know noth'in bout birthen no hurricane
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The sixth tropical depression just rolled of the African coast headed on a same track as Charley and Bonnie. (behind is anoter storm that appears to break up when it hits the Atlantic). Anyone taking bets? Will this become a hurricane and will it follow the same track into the Carribean Sea?
Daniell made a right turn at about this same spot and self destructed. Maybe that is why it is better to name then after girls? |
I'd need to see a few more maps...corresponding temperature maps, infared maps to show high and low pressure centers...before I made any bets. would wsi.com have those too? (I'm guessing that's where you got the image, seeing it's at the top there...)
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The eastern Pacific also had three potential hurricanes rolling about. One just turned away from Hawaii. A quick view suggests China may be due for another significant Typhoon: The World satellite view |
Go ahead, start your global warming rant.
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We have a winner - maybe. The rainstorm from Africa last week grew into a Category 4 hurricane called Frances. It is predicted to strike SC sometime around Saturday - in about four days. However the predictions have been pushing it northward having originally been predicted to hit Cape Canaveral. And so we wonder if The Cellar may again be threatened by another environmental catastrophy:
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One of those little pud storm systems on the earlier map grew into T.S. Gaston, whose remains have, as you've probably heard by now, inundated part of the sotuheast, in NC and VA. Richmond VA got it especially bad, I-95 and I-64, the two main highway arteries through Richmond both closed by floodwater, along with the whole downtown area (Shockoe Bottom for those who know) under water in depths ranging from 2 to 8 to 12 feet. It's a total mess. And NOW we have about a week before Frances gets here. This is going to be an interesting Labor Day weekend. My parents made it through just fine though, so that's cool.
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Can someone do a "delay the rain until Sunday or Monday" dance? I"m moving this weekend, and Frances is the last visitor I need.
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Kitsune can do a Hurricane Safety Dance--will that do?
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Oh, so Kitsune hasn't mentioned the fact that he once really honked off the lightning spirits, and was a storm *attractor*? :eek: No offense, but I'd rather have someone else do the storm deflection dance. |
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Well, it can end with a thriller, just as long as it starts once my electronics are safely in my new house :)
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Neat weather watching pages:
The Weather Matrix: (wow!) http://www.weathermatrix.net/ National Hurricane Center-NOAA: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Hurricanes.net: http://www.hurricanes.net/ Hurricane and Extreme Storm Impact Studies: http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ Hurricanes Theme Page: http://www.cln.org/themes/hurricanes.html Unisys Hurricane/Tropical Data: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/ The Hurricane Watch Net: http://www.hwn.org/ |
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In light of this new information, I withdraw my vote for Kitsune. |
Oh, so Kitsune hasn't mentioned the fact that he once really honked off the lightning spirits, and was a storm *attractor*?
I made my peace with the electrical storms sometime ago! And my new hurricane dance, complete with rum, has done wonders so far. In light of this new information, I withdraw my vote for Kitsune. Yeah? Thats find by me. Of course, I wouldn't hold harsh feelings against me if I were you -- my friend that lives on the East coast of Florida is about to find out what happens when you don't pay me back in a timely manner. |
Gosh Kit, unleashing a #5 hurricane on the Eastern Seaboard to punish one delinquent deadbeat, sounds....well....Biblical. :eek:
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XO. Thank you. I saw your pix. It is a real big damage.
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Your welcome, Billy. Yeah, some of those pictures were amazing. :eek:
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I have returned from the mass evacuation! What a hellish, exhausting drive both out and back. I never want to have to do it, again.
Oh, what's that? I should keep my bags packed? Shit. http://fox.org/~vince/photos/out/frances.jpg |
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And where is the next one(s)? Ivan is just entering the Carribean Sea. Behind him is another? I don't think so. It never remained stable after leaving Africa. So maybe we have had enough fun this year at the expense of Kitsune?
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http://fox.org/~vince/out/ivan.gif
While this has a chance of hitting the Tampa Bay area, its still far too early to tell. Still, it is on the same track as Charley. |
12:24 pm - Remaining Residents Defiant As Florida Braces For More
October 30, 2004 ORLANDO, Florida -- After being ravaged by a total of 17 different hurricanes in the course of a single season, five of which reached Category 5, the highest wind speed rating, remaining residents are battening down the hatches yet again as Hurricane Zoe approaches. "Hurricane Zoe breaks the mold in several ways," said Dr. Harmon Gale, acting director of the National Hurricane Center's new Orlando office, the Miami office having been damaged beyond repair in Hurricane Nicole weeks earlier. "For one thing, after Hurricane Walter appeared, we realized we'd run out of names for Atlantic storms, so in a pinch we adopted Xenia, Yuri and Zoe. This will be the first time we've ever used all the letters. It's a good thing the tropical storm season is ending, or we'd have to go back and pick up Q and U as well. "For another, Hurricane Zoe is so powerful that we have assigned it to a new Category 6, defined as having sustained winds of 250 miles per hour or higher. After Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie, Walter, Xenia and Yuri all bowled through Florida at approximately four-day intervals, we thought we'd seen everything. But Zoe is shaping up to be the worst storm in all of human history. I would strongly recommend evacuating to someplace safe, like central Asia." And Floridians have been taking that advice: of the estimated 20 million state residents at the beginning of 2004, at least 80 percent have abandoned their homes. Hurricane-related deaths this year are estimated in the tens of thousands. Every square mile of Florida has been assaulted by hurricane-force winds on multiple occasions in the last few weeks. Heavily populated regions such as West Palm Beach and St. Petersburg are still substantially submerged, and the transformation of the Everglades into huge salt marshes has made most of southern Florida effectively impassable by automobile. Damage is estimated at over 5 trillion dollars, insurance companies are refusing to do any further business in the state even on pain of federal litigation, and due to the rapid succession of storms, there has been no time to perform any but the crudest of repairs to utilities. Florida is a wasteland, and experts estimate it will remain one for decades to come. Many of those we interviewed at the refugee camps in the hills of northern Georgia, when we asked if they would be going back, screamed curses at us, or simply wept. Despite all this, a few hardy souls have hung on through it all. We found one man (who refused to give his name) in the Orlando area who decided he was staying, no matter what. In exchange for several cans of gasoline, he agreed to an interview. "I have nowhere else to go," he said, sitting in a lounge chair on his driveway, a wall of sandbags surrounding his property, wearing a bandolier of shotgun shells. "And after Karl passed through, I figured it was too late to go anywhere anyway. Insurance won't pay, and the house isn't worth a dime on the dollar now." And how was he able to survive all this time? "Believe it or not, after Karl it got a lot easier. People had had enough, so they loaded up their cars with whatever they had and made a run for it. When they heard I was staying, they gave me whatever they couldn't bring along. I don't know how many of them made it, though, since Lisa and Matthew crossed one another in north Florida while they were all parked on I-75. "Anyway, a lot of the stores were abandoned, too. I've got enough food and equipment here for the duration thanks to them. All the levelled houses around here have provided me with enough scrap building materials to reinforce my own house. And did I mention that there's no traffic problems for a change?" And what of the dangers? "Well, yeah, a lot of crazy people out there. All the stinkin' looters somehow find their way here, that and the diseased and the just plain crazy. I hate to have to kill 'em all, but there hasn't been police or emergency service out here for a month. "Yeah, yeah, I've heard about Zoe on the shortwave. Ever since Ivan made three, I figured, what the heck?" he said, scratching at his beard, grinning. "Might as well collect 'em all." |
Um... what? October 30th, 2004 hasn't happened yet...
It's not funny enough to be The Onion, but I can't really figure out who else would write it. |
It's disturbingly hilarious, that is. :D :worried:
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My boss is leaving this weekend to visit his in-laws. He should arrive in Florida just in time for he, his wife, and her parents to be evacuated.
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Oh oh.
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It is somehow custom or mandatory to write something witty on the back window of your car when you're running away from a hurricane. Suggestions appreciated! With this current track, I should be booking it North on I-75 sometime Sunday morning.
"I'm not scared, there's just a bigger party up North" won't fit. Damn. |
"How's My Driving? Call 1-800-ITSAFUCKINGEVACUATIONYOUDUMBASS"
That probably won't fit either. How about: "Yeah, but it's a DRY heat." |
We're all convinced Ivan is Russian. And drunk. We've not seen a track change this much, this frequently, in a long time.
All of this started getting stressful last night when I began sorting through things that are irreplacable. I suddenly realized that cramming all of it into the car isn't possible and you have to figure out what is the most important: family photographs, old books, etc. After I had packed it all into boxes, all it took was for me to look up and see what I was leaving behind before I reconsidered and began trading out items. A disaster that sneaks up on you and takes your home is difficult to deal with, but somehow knowing that the uncertain is just days away seems so much worse right now. One week from now I might be sitting on my couch enjoying more football, sitting in a shelter with no place to live, or, with the way this summer is going, watching another hurricane spiral towards us. This afternoon, a shifting of gears. Packing things into plastic tubs got put on hold as we considered that driving North might be more dangerous than staying put as Ivan takes a Westerly course for the day. Food and water suddenly became important and I made sure I raided the stores, today. On the drive through town, I counted five out of six gas stations that were out of fuel thanks to yesterday's panic started by rumors of gasoline rationing, all of which were eventually dispelled by the govenor. Looking around, it also seemed impossible that we had the possibility of being hit by a catagory four hurricane. During a commercial break on the radio, a correction: catagory five. Great. And now I sit, trying to watch Georgia Tech battle Clemson, only to have the broadcast interrupted by the local news to update everyone on a prediction track that hasn't changed in the last three hours and won't update for at least another two. Once in the crosshairs, I'm now on the very edge of the "cone of probability", but even that will change after Ivan passes Cuba. Friends in New Orleans indicate that even they are getting a bad feeling from this beast and that residents there remain fairly nervous, thinking that the Westerly course might very will continue and throw their city into deep water. Not everyone throws hurricane parties because they're fun. It seems, this season, that its one of the only things that keeps peoples' nerves calm. |
Water, Milk, batteries, and flashlights were all thin but in stock, today. What sold out? Well, I managed to grab the last packet!
http://fox.org/~vince/photos/out/hurricanemix.jpg "Have Fun!" |
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Damn, maybe the Californians are better off with earthquakes that are over before you can worry about them. Priority #1, be safe, man! If your past gets blown away, I'll give you mine :grouphug:
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you guys just hang in there and well, shit, you've had your share of storms this year, i guess h-town could take one for the team. just as long as i get my multi-engine commercial rating out of the way before it gets here! just in case, be safe and for god's sake, protect that bottle of rum!!!
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well hell.....Infrared of the carribean sea
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Yeah, good luck.....looks like your in for some *shit*.
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Yeah, good luck.....looks like your in for some *shit*.
Wrong! WRONG! Thats just wrong. All the unknowns are making everyone uneasy, but we're starting to feel a little bit better, here. My friends in New Orleans, however, sent a one word e-mail along with a URL for the Wednesday 8am computer model for Ivan: "Uh-oh". |
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105mph? Peh. Its a wee baby.
Don't the Pacific ones fizzle out long before they reach the California coast? The water there is ass-cold! |
I don't remember ever hearing anything about wind damage from those west coast storms. They do get tons of rain from them occasionally, which causes massive mud slides. I guess in the surfing culture, house surfing down the mountain, would be the ultimate. :eek:
Life is good, Kit. You had a chance to inventory your possessions and revaluate your priorities. :thumbsup: |
Life is good, Kit. You had a chance to inventory your possessions and revaluate your priorities.
No doubt -- this season had provided some good lessons. Charley: Changes in strength and direction can happen at the last minute. So can pants-shitting. Frances: Flashlights, batteries, gas, water, and food are all mandatory, direct hit or not. I also found out they can ban the sale of alcohol after a storm. With no power and nothing to do for days, what a nightmare that would have been! (Note: as of today, some people in Florida still didn't have power restored.) Ivan: Besides figuring out what is important to pack and checking for insurance validity, I seriously hope Ivan has nothing to teach me. Really, I've learned my lesson. Do you hear me, weather gods? I don't need to learn anything else, like how a roof holds together in catagory five winds or how deep flood waters can get in a state that is essentially nothing more than a large sandbar. At least I found neat old photographs and newspapers in my searches, which was good, and I finally got to generate a proper keepsake box. A waterproof one. :D We're all hoping that wherever Crazy Ivan and Rain of Terror hits that everyone fairs well, and that includes my friends in New Orleans who are, I think, well into Northern Alabama by now to stay with family to weather it out, although it certainly won't get them away from it. At last word, hurricane-force winds exptended out more than 110 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extended out more than 200 miles. Atlanta residents were told yesterday to expect possible catagory one winds. This thing is just now edging past Cuba and around noon, today, we looked up to see "hurricane haze" at high altitudes -- the outflow from an approaching hurricane that starts out as rippled cirrus clouds that melt to a thick overcast layer. All the way in Tampa, we're supposed to get some good winds even if it hits West of the panhandle. That is madness. :eek: |
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And while he was busy watching the Gulf of Mexico, look what popped up behind him
I need to start up a betting pool for these things. My guess: TD11 is headed for the Carolinas with the high that is in place over FL right now -- the same high that might be saving us from Ivan. ("Might" because, well, anything can happen in the wonderful world of random weather and drunk, stumbling Russian hurricanes.) Watch the sky for me watch the night... |
That's 105 knots or about 120 MPH.
I was reading the predicted location at 120 hours past last reported position. Trust me, I'm getting real used to reading these maps. ;) My favorite ones come from Wunderground because you get to see the original computer models they base the predictions on. |
KYAGB
The Hurricane Risk for New Orleans http://americanradioworks.publicradi...es/levels2.jpg "OK, this is tool that I have a range rod," explains Suyhayda. "It will show us how high the water would be if we were hit with a Category Five Hurricane." Which would mean what? "Twenty feet of water above where we are standing now," says Suyhayda. |
Cool maps--weather.com
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Alright, Florida, unless Ivan takes a sharp turn to the east, it looks like you'll get by with just a grazing wound...but if you can spare it, keep your eye on that little upstart over by the Virgin Islands, T.S. Jeanne.
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I hear Wisconsin is nice and pretty hurricane-free this time o' year...
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Everyone have a drink for The Big Easy, tonight. At nine feet below sea level, that city is going to need it. What would we do without the French Quarter?
Going after Kitsume is too much fun. First it was lightning, now hurricanes. The weather is never going to leave me alone! I cannot complain a bit, though. So far, Tampa has faired really well through this year -- so far, so good. And we're just a little more than halfway through hurricane season! |
Jeanne's long range projection takes it over Daytona Beach, again. That's where our home office is, and all this hurricane preparation really screws up my life...and I work in Eastern Kansas, ferchrissake.
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It's that Cellar karma saving your butt.
I've not gotten hit for what I've written here? Ladies and gentlemen, being an asshole can payoff! Woo! |
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Another view of Ivan ---
From the international space station: |
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Another one is forming behind Jeanne having reformed after recently rolling off Africa:
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BTW...I did not, in any way, shape or form mean to indicate that the relatively minor inconvenience caused to me by the current Floridian Hurricane Barrage holds a candle to the death and destruction being endured by those in the middle of these monsters. |
Another one is forming behind Jeanne having reformed after recently rolling off Africa:
I hope that isn't as organized as it looks in the still image. Time to just laugh at them -- because there's not a thing anyone can do. A cruel joke? Well, better than May 20th in Codell, Kansas, I guess! (hit by a tornado on that date in 1916, 1917, and 1918) |
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