Somebody knows somth'in bout birth'n hurricanes
 

Here it comes folks. Tropical Storm #5 will hit Puerto Rico as a hurricane in only 100 hours. Anyone in Florida want to scream yet? Somebody said, "Head for the hills!" One problem. FL has no hills. RockyTop NC sounds like a good summer and fall vacation home. Or go live with The Cellar. Hurricanes never come to the Cellar... yet.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AT 11/0300 UTC. T.D. FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.8N 42.9N MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. FIVE IS WELL DEFINED AND IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

Well, I'm not going to scream about it. Of course living in Colorado does wonders for one's blase' factor about such things.

Who needs hurricanes when you've got hackers, anyhow?

I lived in Scarolina on an island for 3 1/2 years.. when the national guard came around trying to get us to put toe tags on we just laughed and had a party. ah, the good days! salad days..

I was reading a yahoo news article yesterday about Dennis, and it said that emergency personnel were telling those people who planned to stay in the area against evacuation warnings to "write their names across their chests in waterproof ink to make identification easier".

I thought that was great.

I find it ironic that the expert on hurricanes, Dr Gray, is in Colorado.
The Tropical Meteorology Project

Meanwhile, Dennis is right on his predicted track. First to southern Ill. He should now turn sharply east to head for NC or NJ.

Dennis could have been a very destructive storm. The Carribean is ripe and warm early. There were no upper air currents to rip the roof on that storm. However just like Andrew suddenly intensified for reasons not fully understood; Dennis fizzled about 50 miles before hitting the mainland coast. Those who talk lightly about the hazards of these storms usually assume they survived a big one. If it was Dennis, then one suffered damage from what ended up being a minor hurricane. Currently no way to know that storm was not going to be destructive because we still don't understand the mechanism that so sharply intensifies or deflates these storms without warning.

I read somewhere that a person is convinced the storm will not be dangerous as long as he does not put on that toe tag. He says he can prove it. He's not dead. Amazing the religions that some people practice.

[quote=tw]
Yeah, we got NCAR here and NOAA, and CSU has a pretty good department of study devoted to such matters. That's why the national forecasters can dispatch their predictions of doom with such sangfroid. Ain't happening here! ;)

I'm looking forward to Dennis rain all day tomorrow... he best deliver because i think one of my trees is dying.

An ex-coworker and her family would rent a house on the beach in the Carolinas every year during hurricane season. On purpose. In the event of storm warnings they would refuse to be evacuated and would have an extra-big party at which they served Hurricanes as the beverage of choice and watch the storm approach. This included the year that the storm did hit and swept all the water out of the pool in front of the beach-side window wall of their rented home.

She was later found to be crazy. When she popped her noodle we quietly made arrangements for her to be admitted to another hospital. This is a service we cheerfully provide for our employees and their relatives.

how considerate of you.
so your first choice in case we need to notify your current co-workers?

They'll have to find me first ...

And remember she's armed and knows how to use a weapon! :worried:

If you don't see me, worry.

Hey, wolf, who's the latest murder vic at your place of employ? Or has it been a relatively ho-hum summer thus far? No one dead in a basement? Come on! You guys can do it! :)

:worried:

ew boy. looks like i might be moving some airplanes! emily is way the F out there and at 90 mph winds and growing, also looking at the other data, i say between rockport and port arthur tx. oh, and a cat 5 when/where it does hit. hopefully in a sparsely populated area.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.....28.59 INCHES

jeez-louise! a cat 3 already and the second major hurricane in a row. cripes! it's only freakin' july!

As with last year, been watching storms roll off Africa. Emily is just above South America at about 65 degrees W. Behind her are two more storms at about 40 W and 28 W. The second looked like it was going to be another whopper. It started to spin, then spread out (disintegrated) upon hitting the Atlantic. Meanwhile the next storm is about to roll out of Africa. It too could be Tropical Storm #6. These storms are rolling out of Africa just like they were last year. Except last year, this much 'rolling' was in August and September.

Storms continued to roll off of Africa. But few turned into tropical storms. The problem lately has been upper atmosphere winds that were (in simple terms) ripping the tops off of potential hurricanes. Meanwhile, a few did form only to turn northward before approaching the US. Latest (the first week in August) is Harvey. Currently located about 65 degree W (due south of Nova Scotia), Harvey can be see in this satellite photo. Notice potential hurricane producing storms continue to flow off of Africa:

Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lee, Maria, and Nate are names you will become familiar with. As Harvey continues moving off to the NW - maybe going after the Brits - a new tropical depression has already formed before even getting half way across the Atlantic. Currently around 30-35 degree W, this storm is on a slightly more southern track that should bring it closer to the US mainland next week. Have you made your plans yet for August 13?

Its now called Irene. But FL residents can take a breather. It too is headed north following the path of Tropical Storm Harvey - and maybe threaten Bermuda.

Looks like Irene is aimed right for the Cellar. It's still a tropical storm, but is expected to be upgraded to a hurricane before it hits Philadelphia on Thursday morning.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...145135W_sm.gif

Edit: This image is hosted by NOAA, and is updated regularly. It seems to be turning more toward NYC now.

Start charging those digital video/still device batteries now, Cellarites. We'll need to see some first hand coverage.

There is an interview with Gray, the meteorologist tw mentioned, in the September Discover. He feels he had his funding cut under Clinton/Gore because of his opposition to the idea that global warming increases the severity of hurricane seasons.

I can help - I'll be somewhere around ground zero for Irene. I'm right now in lovely Raleigh NC, and am slated to leave on Saturday morning and possibly to return on Tuesday.

Unless Irene has different plans for me. Toilet Paper, dried milk, bottled water, and crackers anyone?

(Much different storm prep than the PA Snow runs that's for sure!)

How are you going to make french toast out of that?

Bah. The eye isnt even coming onshore. It's a rainstorm, ya'll.

The image I posted above is hosted by NOAA, and is updated once or twice a day. Storm seems to be turning slightly to the North now and may miss NC, DC, and Philly as it targets Long Island and New England.

We'll see...

Well, he should be happier now that the current administration's attitude is pretty much "anything that makes money can't be bad for the environment." Bet he'll get plenty of funding.

this'll help..... National Hurricane Center

what? no chef-boy-r-dee? and where's the beer?

And waterproof porn. :mg:

Try this link, let me know if it works.....
http://www.weathertap.com/satellite/SATATLIR4ANI.html

There is also a storm right off the coast of florida...forecasters say it's unlikely, but it MAY become a depression/storm once it leaves the west coast of florida and then turn north....there is also another storm in the gulf of mexico that appears from animated images from weathertap.com to be coalescing (sp) a little too much for my liking.

Possibility of two more storms slamming the gulf coast, in the midst of chaos. Feels like Dennis/Floyd.

Been watching the current tropical storms for weeks. Currently we are up to Nate. In the attached picture, Nate sits between Puerto Rico and Nova Scotia. The larger hurricane is maybe 500 miles to the NE. Notice I have also included other storms in the lower right corner. Is this a hurricane?

Katrina was a nothing the entire time it crossed the Atlantic. It only formed when it hit the Gulf Stream off of FL, made a left turn, and got into the Gulf of Mexico.

This is the problem. Surface temperatures in the Gulf have been at record levels - consistent with global warming - 85 plus degrees F. And since the temperatures are slowly getting warmer deeper every year, then hurricanes that get into the Gulf have been getting quite strong. This is not enough to prove global warming is causing more severe hurricanes. But it is why research is ongoing to better understand the process.

Andrew was a small storm that suddenly turned into a monster just as it hit the Gulf Stream. It is believed that Andrew yanked up a large warm pocket of water that suddenly charged it into a category 5 storm. It is also suspected that Katrina got same in the Gulf. Unfortuntely, last I read, we don't have data on such temperatures. Even the data buoys only monitor surface temperatures. There is much research to do in order to explain why Katrina, et al are occuring.

Whoops! While I was not looking, that little storm off the FL coast (located where Katrina got her upbringing) has suddently turned into the 16th Tropical Depression of the season. Three of them are out there in the Atlantic. The remaining names are Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, and Wilma. It is possible we use them all.

I was just about to post that, Tee...the storm off the eastern coast of Florida is now TD16, and will be Ophelia if she strengthens that much.

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/OSEIiod.html (NOAA IOD)

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2484.htm (NOAA Hurricane Outlook)

The 4th and 5th pictures down illustrate why we're having more hurricanes (warmer than average surface temps and lower than average wind shear = more hurricanes. But they can't tell us WHY the temps are warmer or WHY the wind shear is lower.

Nevermind that pesky Kyoto treaty.....

The irony of the fourth and fifth pictures in that URL - Katrina neither formed nor passed through that black box called the "hurricane development region". What has made hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico so severe is abnormal warning throughout in the northern Gulf. The URL (dated 2 Aug 2005) does not even note that area as having unusually high water temperatures.

Actually, yes it does, the fourth picture is http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...08-02-2005.jpg, and that is the slide for high surface water temps.

??? Unless I misunderstood your post, Tee?

Draw a horizontal line between the southern tips of FL and TX. These past few years, the Gulf of Mexico above that line (along the US Gulf coast) were reported unusually warmer and warmer earlier in the season. At least that is what I was getting from summaries. This fourth picture does not suggest that. I don't know if this fourth picture is only for short term temperatures or for seasonal temperatures. But Katrina got most of its energy from the region above that horizontal line; an area that the fourth picture says is not above normal.

I cannot provide details since some usual sources such as the US Navy Surface Temperature maps long longer are available. Ironically many sources apparently were served out of New Orleans.

Shearing and other effects (some of which are somehow related to El Nino) can make or break hurricanes. These effects tend to cycle. But one effect that is not cycling - is only getting warming - is ocean temperature. That would mean more severe hurricanes that tend to cycle with wind shear and El Nino as they get worse over the decades. Currently the relationship between global warming (ocean warming) and more severe hurricanes is only apparent; has not been definitely proven.

But again, the irony is that Katrina got its energy in locations not listed as warmer (red) on that chart. Katrina never exited in the black box described as "the hurrican development region". OK, maybe Katrina was not really the big one (gasp). Maybe we are still waiting for the really big one from that "hurricane development region" and those red (warmer) regions.

I found this animated surface temperature map. Notice the suddenly high water temperatures that preceded Katrina's visit to those areas.
Weekly Sea Surface Temperatures
The dark red areas are water that is above 30 degree C. To Americans, that is water above 86 degrees F; water that was reported elsewhere to be as much as 90 degrees F.

At one point, the water off east coast FL gets that warm. This is where Katrina suddenly became a hurricane. Suddenly because I was watching that trivial storm long before - and it remained a nothing until it got to the east FL coast.

Based only upon those maps, then one could speculate that Katrina took a lot of heat out of the Gulf.

And now we have Tropical Storm PHILIPPE located in the Atlantic due east of the windward antillies and Carribean Sea. But why stop there? Sitting for a long time NE of Puerto Rico over a hot spot was what we now call Tropical Depression 18. Having moved westward towards the Bahamas, it is targeting the center of the Gulf of Mexico. This could be Rita. Wait. Rita would be 17th. Only one Tropical Depression did not get strong enough to be named.

Of course the Pacific had it worse last year. If I remember, they had either 24 or 26 powerful storms. But the trend is on. Many hurricanes and cyclones in both oceans.

plthijinx: very true. we'll just have to see what happenes. my only hope is that nothing comes my way, or if it does, it goes southward between corpus and b-ville like before....

It's now called Tropical Storm Rita, headed for warmer water between Cuba and FL. In about 5 days, somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Chasing Rita is Phillipe. Oh Stan, where art thou.

Just so long as it makes landfall before I get there ...

hmpf. looks like i'll be moving airplanes this weekend instead of dove hunting like originally planned.

The 5 day outlook:

<img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5_sm2+gif/145605W_sm.gif">

Oh man is this shit getting old! I'd run outside to curse at the skies and ocean for all the destruction, but I know not to make that mistake ever again...

and the sucky part is NBN and I are where the red dot is....

here is a GOES satellite image of the gulf.....

Plthijinx, how far inland are you?

roughly 50 miles and 83 feet msl.

Well if anything happens to you, you can be sure that your local, state, and national officials have it covered.

yeah, that gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. i've been dealing with the sheriff's department since last month on another matter. they can't figure out whether to pick their head or scratch their ass.

and to make matters worse for the folks on the coastal and bay areas, the storm surge is coming at high tide.

When a hurricane gets down to 920 mb, well that is a low pressure system that would bottom out most barometers. However tonight's statement from the National Hurricane Center (22 September 2005 0300 zulu) has this little gem: Using Rush Limbaugh logic, global warming has clearly increased the intensity of hurricanes. But Rush Limbaugh logic also has another commandment from his god. Pervert facts only for a political agenda. And you thought Rush was playing dead due to criticism from The Cellar.

They're <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=135&tstamp=200509">predicting some potentially massive flooding from Rita far inland</a>.

The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area.

bouy data: :mg: :eek:

Conditions at 42001 as of
(9:50 am CDT)
1450 GMT on 09/22/2005:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 50.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 68.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 34.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 14 sec
Average Period (APD): 10.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): E ( 89 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.31 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.7 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 84.4 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

34 foot waves are not that high for a storm of this magnitude. Last year, an Atlantic hurricane created 40+ foot waves for the data buoy off of Frying Pan Shoals in SC ... before the buoy failed. I watched it as it was failing.

Meanwhile buoy 42003 was capsized by Katrina. These deep water buoys are typically archored in 3300 meters. A picture that gives some idea as to how large this only family of buoys (including 42001) really are:

Don't worry, I'm sure GWB has another $40 billion on hand to fix Texas. And I'm sure that he'll want to triple his tax cuts to rev up the economy to help pay for the cost. After all, the more we spend, the more we save :rar: :yelgreedy

This is Forest Oil's High Island HI-334B rig a few hundred miles off of Galveston that is right in Rita's path.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/Stations/fgbl1.jpg

Nearby is a data buoy (from Texas A&M) that failed even from distant Katrina. These small data buoys fail often in serious storms.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/Stations/42046.jpg

This is one of NOAA's more robust data buoys - a 3 meter discus anchored in about 1100 meters. Although maybe 100 miles east and sligtly south of that rig (and adjacent to a Shell oil rig), it was liberated by Katrina, remained operational, and was recovered. No weather data available.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/Stations/3m.jpg

NOAA buoy 40019, another 3 meter discus, is an only operational data buoy that can provide wave height. It is maybe 100 miles south of Galveston, currently sees barometric pressure drop to about 29.4 inches (just under 1000 millibars), and only reports 19 foot waves.

NOAA buoy 42001 cited above by plthijinx, a 12 meter discus, was also liberated from its 3000 meter anchor by Katrina. It also remained operational and was directly struck when Rita was reporting extremely low pressures. Waves at that point were up to 39 feet. However during Rita's visit, something rather interesting occurred at 42001. Ocean temperature dropped 5 degrees F to about 81 degrees. Ocean has since gone down to a cool 79 degrees. This would explain Rita's sudden decrease in strength.

Also on the northern edge of Rita and just below Western and Central LA are three Shell oil rigs in about 900 meters of water: Auger GB426 and
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/Stations/42361.jpg
and Brutus GC158
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/Stations/42362.jpg
Mars MC807 is similar, is directly south of New Orleans and would have suffered more from Katrina. Surprisingly, little information on the integrity of these rigs after Katrina and previous hurricanes is apparently available; as if it were a state secret.

These are but four of many hundreds, maybe a few thousand rigs that dot the Gulf. It demonstrates how much of us remains out there AND how difficult what has happened is learned.

NOAA site has a video showing the ocean fom Africa to Mexico with the colors changing (blue, yellow,orange, red) as the water temperature changes over the summer. Once in a while a blue spot will move across the ocean showing the water temperature drop as a hurricane moves over it. Pretty cool. :biggrin: