North Korea fires missles
 

Not as sophisicated as those of the USA or other strong military countries, but they are buying their technology somewhere.

A cry for attention? Do they plan to hold the west to ransom for not going further?

From another source: "Dubya shouldnt' do anything but tell the Chinese to rein in their chihuahua. China is the 800 pound gorilla here. Kim Il is nucking futz and needs a retroactive abortion."

Do you figure this will go anywhere more serious? Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, N. Korea.

What do you think?

Let's hope to hell we don't do anything about it. I've often heard criticism of the president for ignoring N. Korea in favor of Iraq. THIS IS A BAD THING? It may aggravate the situation to ignore it, but I sincerely hope the next administration is the one to deal with N. Korea. Preferably an administration that doesn't kick all the Generals out of the room when they're planning a freaking war (Someone actually must have thought, "What could possibly go wrong? How hard can war be? We don' need no stinkin' Generals").

Hopefully N. Korea is just being its usual belligerent self. War would be bad there (LOTS of civilians would die. I mean LOTS. Seven figures.) What we need in Korea is a whup-ass diplomat and international backing. The problem with any sort of military conflict is, if we don't disable a lot of their military very quickly, Seoul is gone. Like, poof. And now that they have ICBM's and nukes? Yup. Ignore 'em until we have a savvy admin., keep plugging away with diplomacy of all kinds, keep the nukes on standby as a last ditch option in case Kim Il gets an itchy trigger finger. Tactical nukes, people, not strategic. I wouldn't even advocate that if it wasn't for the population of South Korea that was at risk.

Although I suppose we could always just sell South Korea to 'em. It wouldn't be the first time. And it would save lives. Capitalism in Action, heh.

Last I'd heard, China had lost much of its influence over N. Korea.

Instapundit links to this Strategypage article which says
I bet the US position is to do as little as possible, drag everything out.

It's not our problem. It's Japan's, China's, South Korea's. Japan is looking for a UNSC resolution denouncing the tests. This is the Team America World Police solution, telling them if they do it again they will be sent another nasty letter. No military solution here, the best approach is to wait it out as long as possible until the country dies a natural death.

Ah, it feels good to be at bravo-plus, again.

You'll note that that only referrs to the alert level for the site physical security at NORAD. Doesn't have anything to do with the alert level *of* NORAD...it's not a DEFCON or an EMERGCON. If you don't live at NORAD (like SG-1 does) it doesn't affect you at all.

[quote=Undertoad]It's not our problem. It's Japan's, China's, South Korea's. QUOTE]

I thought our treaty with Japan included defending them against hostile nations. I'm pretty sure we have an agreement with South Korea to do the same, although I don't know how formal it is- I know during WWII
we pledged to defend their sovereignty once they were freed from the Japanese. Or something like that. 'Course, you could say North Korea wasn't in existence then, so that doesn't count, but that's a little shady.

And really, if we don't defend South Korea, it would fall to the North overnight; do we really want lil' Kimmie to have access to the South's resources? Won't it just bite us in the ass if they start really screwing with Japan, and we have to deal with it then?

I was wondering about this, yesterday -- is the homeland security color chart a direct reflection of the DEFCON level?

I really enjoyed this simple solution to the DPRK missile problem:

...or maybe I just really enjoyed the visual of Kim Jong-il throwing a bowl of kimchi at a plasma TV in anger on the evening of the 4th.

That was just KJI's way of saying "Happy Fourth of July!"

Thanks, buddy - we love you too.

We defend those areas but with China's involvement, the last thing the world needs is another stupid proxy war. The news channels are all scary-like but the truth is, the missile failed (or, much less likely, was caused to fail [link: animation video of missile intercept at 60 seconds]) and hopefully our subs will be collecting the missile pieces so the good guys will know what happened and the bad guys won't.

Which goes right back to asking - have you first put yourself into the perspective of the various players in N Korea? Do you understand why S Koreans now consider America a greater threat to peace? Why would they cause missiles to fail? It is a likely scenario and a rather interestingly insightful comment from UT.

Why did they fuel that rocket last week when it had to be launched in two day or eat itself? Oh. Maybe they were going through the steps repeatedly so that everyone knew what was coming. Maybe the purpose was attention? Why would they do that if they wanted to develop offensive weapons? Or maybe N Korea is trying to address the same problem that causes so many S Koreans worry. Southerners are not worried about the North. If you are thinking long term, then a first concept in your mind is, "How will N Korea merge with S Korea just like the Germanys?" "How will it be done when entire generations of N Koreans don't even have knowledge of the world - a problem that Germany did not have?"

Did you ask yourself those questions - or even consider them? If you are thinking 'them verses us', then you have no idea what those missile launches may be about.

I suggest a review this web site in about 3 hours for informaton on their 5 July broadcast to better appreciate the so many perspectives. Appreciate that if you have a belligerent attitude of N Korean missile launches, then you don't understand what is happening AND don't understand the attitudes of both S Korea and Japan: corrected URL
Radio Times of 5 Jul 2006

To appreicate why most S Koreans consider the US a greater threat to their objectives, only then are you ready to appreciate why N Korea may be launching so many missiles. But it means you also understand both North and South Korean objectives. Again, it begs you to learn about and take on so many perspectives in a very complex political discussion. A discusson nearly terminated when someone threw a grenade in the room: "Axis of Evil".

How likely?

Not very. But it is an interesting possibility due to what N Korea's European educated leader must do to bring his country back into the world.

Which is what?

I'm sure I'm overlooking something, but isn't a North Korean ICBM just *begging* for the US to prove its missle defense technology? Not that we have any that works, but I'm just sayin...

That kind of echoes something I'd heard from a friend who had spent several years in S. Korea and put some effort into understanding the situation. It's been a few years, but he said something about the N. Koreans having a very odd negotiating process, and that there was almost no chance that N. Korea would actually start an armed conflict as it would conflict with their goals. This seems very odd for a nation that pours all of its resources into it's military, but... he also said that the Bush admin showed no signs of understanding or respecting the complex relationship between the U.S. and North Korea, and that diplomatic achievements and understandings made during previous admin's were pretty much erased. This seems like a dangerous situation.

Standby, put someone in there who knows what N. Korea's all about, and defend if necessary. From your account, tw, that last option will not be necessary; my earlier, somewhat unclear point was that if by some crazy chance war does break out, the whole peninsula is screwed. Regardless of what N. Korea's true intentions are, what really matters is how they're going to be interpreted by others in power. Which brings me back to, Pres. Bush just leaving the damned situation alone. I don't know. Maybe I'm not giving him enough credit; maybe he has more savvy advisers than he did six years ago. But if he does pick the insane route, i.e. starting a fight with N. Korea, I'm hoping they let the generals into the war room this time- not that it's going to matter much.

Maybe it did.

If it did, they wouldn't say it worked, if it went undetected.

From what I've heard it's not ready yet.

Unlikly a war with North Korea 'cause that could put walmart out of business. ;)

Silly. The US has a paper missile defense system that means we need not waste money on schools. It is nonsense. And then what are we defending from. Only worse case speculation says that missile can reach some remote parts of Alaska. So what? Well it makes those N Korean extremists happy while Kim Jung Il desperately tries to get the world to engage N Korea - to help him get N Koreans to understand a basic fact - the world is not trying to destroy N Korea.

But here in America where Cheney still has a big penis, cold war mentality, we are even building a missile defense system that does not work AND that our best experts say cannot work.

More big penis reasoning by leaders who see enemies everywhere.

We have to because the real problem here probably isn't nukes or missiles. Isn't the real problem all that functional conventional hardware pointed South?

Even world events apply to Korea. For example, how did the US respond to Iran?

How to shake up American who don't take N Korea seriously? Carter did. Albright did. But instead our current leadership promotes N Korean extremists rather then engage N Korean intelligent leaders - centrists - the moderates. It’s called a big penis mentality that too often leads only to war.

N Korea has Cheney type (veins hanging from the lips) extremists AND others who know that will only make N Korea even worse. How do you get those big penis vein eaters to become part of the world?

What does S Korea (and N Korean moderates) want? If your perspective is sound bytes and charactures, then you have not a clue and probably have a big penis brain. Meanwhile, those who deal with Kim Jung Il recognize him as a sophisticated and intelligent man in a country full of 'mad man' leaders. You tell me how he takes his country into the world?

Well Jimmy Carter got the Nobel Prize for finding a perfect solution - that was supported by S Korea and Japan - and then subverted by an intelligent George Jr. George Jr did to the N Korean solution what he also did the Oslo Accords.

The only reason why N Korea is not stepping into becoming part of the world is US - in particular Cheney who does not even understand his 'big penis' mentality also may be recreating a second cold war with Russia. I should not have to explain that either because it is acknowledged and worried about by intelligent scholars.

How to solve two problems with one action. It is no coincidence that they would launch three types of missiles when the shuttle was launched, on 4 July, AND when George Jr is isolating N Korea rather than engaging it. First the big penis extremists in N Korea were appeased because they could show off the size of their penis. At the same time, intelligent N Korean leaders now have Americans - even your - attention. That is what they want. Otherwise the big penis extremists in N Korea entrench the country in to the inevitable - nuclear war.

Are you listening or does you penis replace your brain? If any paragraph here confuses you, you have not been doing what good voters do - learn what is happening. Nothing here should be new to you. Are they saber rattling? Of course. Did you ask why? If you did not understand the many different perspectives from so many different Koreans; if you think for one minute that N Korea is a monolithic entity like George Jr proclaims to his mental midget supporters, then we might as well go to war right now.

Kim Jung Il has long been trying to engage the world while in a country that would rather murder him for doing that. Do you blindly believe Rush Limbaugh hype that Kim Jung Il is a madman? Then you have not a clue.

Mike Chinoy has covered North Korea for nearly two decades. If what he says in not common knowledge, then you a perfect recruit for the big penis attitude promoted by Rush Limbaugh and Cheney. There is no big monolithic 'evil' N Korea as the American mental midgets would promote. This N Korean problem is directly traceable to moderates who desperately need to integrate N Korea into the world and a S Korea that wants to start a reunification that will take over 40+ years - as wacko N Korean extremists learn how not to think like Cheney. Currently most N Koreans are routinely brainwashed in lies that the whole world wants to destroy them. What an almost impossible situation for Kim Jung Il. Made even worse by so many wacko Americans who know and yet did not even learn the many perspectives in N Korea.

My previous URL was in error. This is a one hour discussion that should be common knowledge - to have opinions about N Korea:
Radio Times of 5 Jul 2006

An American friend who is into rockets wrote this...do you agree?

"No Scud Soviet designation SS-1. It works more like a WW2 V2 only more accurate. The booster carries the warhead all the way to target. Staged boosters are a different animal altogether. Its an eclusive club. To my knowledge (I'm no expert) the only countries that posess staged rockets are US, Russia, China, and France. Pakistan and India may have them. If not they probably are not far off.

Although the NK missile failed they still recieved telemetry from it. Correcting the failure could be as simple as adding a battery operated heater to a valve that froze."



"...we have systems that are designed to hit aircraft. Some can be used against a missile IF......IF it is in a position to run it down. Hitting a rocket that can travel into the upper atmosphere is another project altogether. A rocket like a scud travels in a long wide arc or in the case of more sophisticated system like our cruis missiles a flat line. A staged rocket goes almost straight up. Once high enough it can release its warhead which then free falls to its target. When its burning fuel a heat seeker can key in on it if its in position. Once past apogee its no longer burning fuel and it has a very small radar signature to track. Thats what the ballistic missile defence sheild idea was all about. Unfortunantly it was poo pood ridiculed and called Star Wars as if it were fantasy. It was only a matter of time till this genie was out of the bottle."

The official version could never admit that Kim Jong-Il was educated outside the country. Necessary for same reasons that Kim Jong-Il must be very careful in how he engages the world. Again, to admit an education outside of N Korea means extremists might just rise up and kill him. Many in N Korea are that brain washed extremist.

Meanwhile Kim Jung-Il sent his children to be educated in Switzerland - a country that Kim is said to have repeatedly visited. So yes, it is not clear that Kim was educated in Switzerland even though the claim was made long ago. A public acknowledgement of his boys educated in Switzerland is regarded by many that his children will not be permitted to succed Kim Jong-Il even though they were being groomed accordingly. Again, N Korea is that introverted. An official version could never say Kim was educated outside Korea.

Switzerland is a popular destination for all Kims. From english.chosun.com: Yes, I cannot confirm that that Kim Jong-Il was Swiss educated. Only that he and many family members travel to or get educated in Switzerland. His background is cosmopolitian even though the official version will not admit same. The Guardian in Kim is a baby rattling the sides of a cot reports Meanwhile Kim Jong-chul, his son, has been reported with two American friends from his International Swiss school - even at a rock and roll concert in Germany. Repeated rumors say that Kim also has $4billion in Swiss bank accounts.

The point remains that Kim - unlike most of his countrymen - is cosmopolitan and quite knowledgeable of the world as was noted by Sec of State Albright after long discussions. So knowledgeable and daring as to even educate his boys in Switzerland to be groomed as future N Korean leaders. World knowledge that is unusual for N Koreans power brokers.

And again, the point is that Kim Song-Il is playing a dangerous game trying to integrate N Korea into the world. Something he must do and that his extremists will strongly oppose - as what may have happened on a train ride back from China where an explosion later leveled the N Korean town.

Bri asked "Are we secretly doing things to threaten Kim"

One aspect - maybe from tw's radio times link - is that we are shutting down the ability of overseas banks to accept the counterfeit dollars that the Norks are producing, squeezing him economically.

Japan is able to put things into orbit, so I assume that they have multiple staged rockets as well. Since they're still pretty much an unarmed nation since WWII, I'm guessing they were left out of the ICBM discussion, but if you can put something into orbit, you can make something fall down on someone else on another part of the planet.

That is my understanding, yes, while the nukes are an issue the US isn't really concerned with DPRK launching them, but with obliterating Seoul which is within easy shelling distance. I think this comes down to more of the worry of DPRK retaliating against South Korea if we were to try to intervene in any of their arms development and that is why we're hopeful that China will start putting more pressure on Kim.

Full embargo.

Previous was only analysis of past history. Next look future. We had a perfect deal to buy off Kim - to give him something to engage his extremists so they will learn how introverted they were. It got Jimmy Carter the Nobel Peace Prize. And then we (ie Congress) destroyed it using rhetoric rather than logic.

Kim Jong-Il is all but begging the world to buy him out - to give him something so that he can open his country (and his extremists) to the world. But with each new weapon system, that cost becomes higher.

Jimmy Carter bought off Kim cheaply. A couple of nuclear power plants and some oil. The next deal will no longer be so inexpensive. He now has missiles that work (but probably have no accuracy - inferior guidance systems). That means cost of buying him out has become much higher.

Tell an American extremist (like Cheney) that we will buy out Kim and Cheney will instead demand war. That is the current American mentality. The cost of buying out Kim is already way too high for extremist Americans to swallow. And over time, the same price will only get higher. Right now, we could buy out Kim Jong-Il real cheap - when compared to how much more expensive that price will become.

With those missile launches, Kim is telling us what the new price will be. This is not what he wants. This is the price he must get to satisfy his extremists. And without a famine, that price is even higher.

Are you looking forward? Do you see what George Jr did to kill off that Jimmy Carter agreement AND do you understand what ignoring N Korea means in the cost of settlement? Of course, we could just continue sitting on our hands and doing nothing - and then war breaks out. Why do you think the S Koreans (and rightly so) regard American as the greater threat to peace.

That radio broadcast should have opened many eyes to the problem we have created by underming the Jimmy Carter settlement.

War is created by failures at the negotiation table. Kim Jong-Il (probably even to avoid assassination) desperately needs a deal he can sell to his extremists. With each new weapons system, that price increases immensely. When were you going to understand this? The Jimmy Carter deal was what - 10 years ago?

It already exists. It only entrenches those extremists which is why they want more destructive weapons. The only solution is engagement - so that those extremists and their brain washed population learn they have been lied to about the world.

tw has all the answers, all the time.

True, it can be annoying, but I think he may be right on this one. And of course, if I think something's right, it should be national policy. That's not the way it works though, which is why I want my own nukes someday. But I think that's it's own thread.

Other than insanity, there's not much else to explain their actions.

Initiating or provoking conventional military action would be disastrous, but I don't trust this admin to realize or accept that. Maybe they do, and they're waiting for N. Korea to cross some line that will technically justify the use of unconventional weapons. After all, the States are in no danger; it's the Koreans who will pay for any madness that goes down. Well, them and all the poor bastards stationed in S. Korea. Sounds crazy, but I have no faith in the sanity of some people. Especially those hounding glory and a place in the history books.

I believe the story about shutting down the NK counterfeiters was a link in the IOtD thread with the big $100 bill.

With China shutting off aid over the stolen trains, things will get worse quickly in the NK countryside.

I think the nukes are a bargaining chip for NK when the reunification talks develop...they will eventually. The only thing lacking is a Pink Floyd Song to kick it off. :haha:

Looks like the human race is run...

What is that about? Are they counterfeiting Lionel?

No, they're keeping the trains that are carrying the aid from China, claiming that the trains themselves are part of the aid package.

Some thoughts on N.K. I am following:


"In North Korea, the control by the Kim regime is so absolute that televisions and radios by law are soldered to be pre-set to approved TV stations and radio stations, with the death penalty for anyone found to have overriden them.

Just one small taste of how bad it is.

Everybody--absolutely everybody--is required to wear a pin carrying Kim's face. Also, they're required by law to smile when in public, and failure to so smile is a crime.

Pregnant women are not allowed within the city limits of Pyongyang, the North Korean capitol. Why? Because they're ugly and disturbing and should not sully the perfect image of the state there. I swear I am not making this up.

Children can be jailed for not being sufficiently happy.

I repeat: children get jailed for being insufficiently happy. Along with their parents of course. Although they're imprisoned separately for the offense, so they quite likely never see each other again.

Even Castro is not this crazy horrible. It's like something out of Madelaine L'Engle's Time Quartet books in their portrayal of how Satan works: even children and how they must play and behave is governed by the state, with the most horrible of results for those who refuse to comply.

It's not that the North Koreans are inhuman. Far from it. But they've been dehumanized. As I say, even the people under the Taliban had it bettter.

It's horrific. And I don't know any easy answers to it, but I do think there are simple ones. They mostly, in my view, start with this: find a way to kill Kim. Yes, just kill him."


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"Kim is a joke. He probably doesnt even know whats going on. The real power - like in the Soviet Union - is held by the oligarchs and the hidden elites who have avested interest in remaining beyond the spotlight."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"Nice idea, but, as others point out, it is simply impossible to communicate with the population of NK. Plus, it would take more than communication, it would take massive deprogramming to a level that might cause insanity. Imagine the shock of reaching adult hood and being told that everything you know is wrong. I can't imagine how one would mentally process such a thing.

I saw a former NK soldier on a history channel program a few years back. He was explaining how he regularly put whole families in gas chambers and released poison gas, and watched.

He was struck by how the parents, themselves dying, puking, choking, and convulsing, still made desperate attempts to perform mouth to mouth on their own dying, puking, choking, convulsing children. But, at the time, he felt nothing for them because he truly believed, as he had been told to believe his whole life, that these were the brutal enemies of the N. Koreans. He did this all the time.

In reality, their f***in Kim Jong Il pins probably just fell off, or one of them didn't smile enough. That's a lot of brainwashing to overcome in an incredibly isolated society."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"Note that Kim jong-il has a brother, Kim Pyong-il. He has a favored son, Kim Jong-chul. He also has a disfavored son, Kim jong-nam. There are even reports of over a dozen illegitimate children.

There are figureheads a-plenty to keep the machine running."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"The "Happy Ending". Kim falls and another bad dictatorship doesn't take over. Let's say they reunite with SK. SK is screwed. Look at Germany and now imagine an even more oppressed civilation, in greater numbers, being absorbed by a weaker, less numerically superior nation. The GDP of SK would probably at least halve just trying to feed people who think grass soup is a meal.

And all of that is discounting what China will do. People talk about the Korean War, but partway into it it wasn't us fighting the Koreans, it was us fighting the Chinese. They like their buffer states. Look at the map of the world. We have bases in many of the 'stans. Mongolia likes us. South Korea likes us. Japan likes us. We have China surrounded and they don't really like that.
In other words, whatever happens, China is not going to just go along with a free Korea on their border. Heck, they have shown that they don't mind having a, possibly, nulear-armed, lunatic state on their border.

Killing Kim could cause chaos and most likely result in the death of millions without any good resolution.
I would say that a war between the US/South Korea (maybe Japan) and China (maybe Russia) is much more likely than a reunited Korea."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"Much as he deserves it, I doubt merely removing Kim would help. The next thug in line would just take his place. Consider what Iraq would look like had we simply removed Saddam.

No, the fact is, Kim Jong Il will go on raping beautiful 15-year-olds till he's sufficiently enfeebled that someone else seizes the reins.

And that next ruler will probably be even worse."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"NK can be brought down by an economic blockade, but that isn't possible without cooperation from China, and so far China hasn't been willing to participate.

However, that may have changed, very recently. The NK government may have succeeded in doing that which American diplomacy has largely failed.

Some Chinese aid to NK has been going in by train, and the last six times NK kept the trains as well as the aid. China is demanding the trains be returned, but NK is claiming that the trains are part of the aid. Apparently the Chinese are not going to send any more until NK starts returning its empties.

The real question is the pipeline that China has been using to send in heating oil. That is NK's lifeline. If it gets cut or shut down, NK collapses in short order. China has applied pressure to NK in the past by shutting it down for a day or two, and the question is whether they'll do it now, possibly for much longer."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"China will keep NK afloat at all costs. They might slap the dog down for discipline from time to time, but NK is useful as a client state in a region that is overwhelmingly pro-US. China is indeed surrounded on the pacific seabord and NK is their ace in the hole. They will never fully sever the oil pipeline. The trains flap is a minor price for china to bear for teh strategic benefits; watch for the chinese to let the matter drop quietly. Its theater, pure and simple.

And I think that morale-wise, the NK army is indeed ripe for psychological warfare. Its not like we havent done it before; look at the 91 gulf war. but the NK army is even more pathetic in straits; their soldiers risk life and limb to stray into the DMZ looking for food (!!). Yes, soldiers so desperate that they will go fishing in the most heavily mined strip of land on earth!

it takes just one spark of anger in one breast to lead men in search of justice. remember john brown? the sepia mutiny? yes, elites tend to be the bearers of that spark, but 'tis the proles who keep the flame alight once lit. Thats the Amerian Revolution itself in a nutshell.

live free or die. how does that get translated to Korean? would make for a fine cover on a pamphlet, airdropped in by the millions on the army barracks in the dmz."


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"They feed/heat the army first. If they're no longer able to feed/heat them, anything could happen.

Unfortunately, they've already proven they will let everyone else in the country starve/freeze to death first. The world does not have the will to impose that.

Sad as I am to say it, I think the NK regime will persist indefinitely, right up until the AI nanobots take over the world."


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"give japan, taiwan, and sk some deterrent nukes too."


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"But in the meantime, if Uncle Sam isn't prepared unilaterally to flatten Kim il-Sung's vicious and crazy kid, then just stop bleating about them. Lest this turn into another South Viet Nam, Haiti, Somalia mission of mercy and democracy. Or another Iraq, for that matter. "

North Korea is returning to multi-nation talks. Little mentioned - N Korea got what they demanded. N Korea refused to talk multi-nation and wanted bilateral talks with the US. Well the US propaganda machine quickly promoted resumption of multi-nation talks after N Korea did an atomic explosion. What US 'lying by telling half truth' purveyors forget to mention - bilateral talks were conducted elsewhere in Berlin as a pre-requisite for further multi-national discussions. From Washington Post of 8 Feb 2007: What will it take to move forward - to bring N Korea back into the world community? Well already the US is slowly moving back to the same agreement negotiated by Jimmy Carter one decade earlier. Same agreement destroyed by the 'big dic' diplomacy of George Jr. But don't fool yourself. N Korea previously agreed to stop their nuclear program in exchange for oil and two nuclear reactors. Then a Republican Congress canceled those trivial oil shipments. A new deal will cost many times more now that N Korea has demonstrated an atomic explosion. American 'big dics' can dump $billions of American taxpayer money in Iraq (it probably bought all those satellite dishes so hyped as 'progress'). But same 'big dics' even cut off trivial oil shipments to N Korea as too expensive - torpedoing the Carter deal. 'Big dics' apparently only understand fraud, bribery, K-Street, and 'dictatorship masking as democracy'. 'Big dics' fear negotiations to avoid war.

In order to bring N Korea into the world - in order for Kim to buy off his 'big dic' extremists without being killed in a coup d'etat - the cost of an agreement will be significant. Unfortunately, American is dominated by 'big dic' mentalities such as Cheney and Urbane Guerrilla. Talks will probably stalemate until America elects an intelligent leader - a centrist. But that means cost of a settlement - and that settlement is absolutely necessary - will only increase as N Korean 'big dics' accomplish more nuclear advancements and gain more power within N Korea. So a buyout is already very expensive and getting more expensive.

Obviously, Jimmy Carter's deal (which earned him the Nobel Prize) is looking better each year. Shame that so many who listen only to Fox News and Rush Limbaugh were not publicly mocked and hanged in effigy in 2001. So now we pay for the sins of our extremists - our 'big dics'. And that does not even include the $2 trillion for "Mission Accomplished" or that bin Laden runs free. Those too are accomplishments of 'big dics'.

What is the situation with N Korea? Mike Chinoy detailed that relationship in a one hour interview on Radio Times on 5 Jul 2006. Go to that web site for Radio Times to select the broadcast date (5 Jul 2006). Wednesday PBS interview is the first hour.

Found this thread - seems an update was in order.

April 14, 2009 -- Nuclear watchdog asked to leave N.Korea

It is not entirely clear that Kim is still in control. Events since his stroke imply others are now running the country. That opportunity to bring N Korea back into the world might have passed.

Among some of the strange or inconsistent events: the hot line between North and South Korea is no longer being answered on the North's side. A shutdown of that border industrial park and train service is inconsistent with Kim's previous objectives.

Who would take over, the military?

The military was Kim's threat. He could not just open his country to the world. That military has his father's fears and neurosis. Having said that, which military. Guaranteed: the N Korean military is not a monolithic block. Is there infighting? We know so little about this nation let alone the mindset of their military power brokers.

Iran has probably convinced some faction that this is the way to go.

This further begs the question of what China's prime objective or desired outcome of all this is. It is apparent that it is different than that of the US.

There is not monolithic alliance between China and North Korea.

For example, then N Korea was to launch their first missile, China warned them not to saying a launch would have severe consequences. N Korea launched anyway. There were no severe consequences.

When N Korea was to launch their second missile, China did not make the same mistake again. Instead, China just remained silent. Even China does not fully understand what happens in N Korea. But China is better positioned to know more.

Even China's "severe consequences" has little influence in North Korea.

But again, the remaining question. Who really is in charge since Kim had his stroke? The 'powers that be' could be slowly replacing Kim so that N Korea does not rejoin the world. Then any attempt to avert a future war would have been lost. North Korean ignorance of the world is widespread. Such people would fear anyone who has seen the world; such as Kim and his sons. If they put their own person in power, then few alternatives may exist other than war.

Jimmy Carter’s deal was our best chance to defuse this situation. Hopefully Kim remains in power. An alternative is dire.

What the heck are you talking about? What were the severe consequences?

The "There were no severe consequences."
or the "China just remained silent."?

Anyway -

And here is a Q & A with Gordon Flake Executive Director, Mansfield Foundation...

An interview with Sheila A. Smith, Senior Fellow for Japan Studies from council of foreign relations.

http://www.cfr.org/publication/19480...breadcrumb=%2F

Thanks PH. That was a very good, yet disturbing read. I don't see North Korea coming to any table or talking till they are nuclear... then what If Kim is still around ... or if not? I read that his youngest son is suspected to be the heir apparent.

Yes, his son seems to be expected to take over eventually.

I am not sure how to take this. Every source I've read seems to conclude that NK wants to be accepted as a nuclear power just as India was. I haven't seen anything that suggests that NK will be a direct threat to the world because of their severe lack of industrial power. They will not be able to produce a large amount of missiles so any attack SK, Japan, or anyone else would be a suicidal mission. You can never be certain though.

Another viewpoint:
http://www.defencetalk.com/north-kor...e-world-19214/

One fear is that they will sell nukes. They have enough material for 6 of them, and they sure need the dough.

Yep, the same fear with Iran. It really depends on what their goals are. Since NK doesn't have the same perceived mission as Iran (no Israel to "destroy") it will be interesting to see how US policy will change. If the biggest fear is that NK will sell the technology to other groups for needed money, trade may open to NK to get them out of their poverty situation. If NK wants "acceptance" in the world community, a nuclear weapon could be their ticket. The risk is great and I personally don't think it will work but there is a possibility it will open trade and lift sanctions against them.

I've read (take with grain of salt) that they are not planning on getting rid of them at the moment but that stance can change quickly if events change.

NKorea warns of attack after SKorea joins drill

http://www.defencetalk.com/nkorea-wa...s-drill-19265/


I am assuming this is just talk, supposedly NK has done this many times in the past but naval encounters between NK and SK would not be surprising.

Another source:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124339629081257563.html

I wouldn't. This has gone way beyond saber-rattling and my buddy who works in SK as a NK intel analyst has gone silent on me.

I bet he is one very busy man right now - Hope he is ok.

Oh, he's fine, I'm sure. He's not clandestine. I interpret his silence as an indication that we are in a very high state of military alert and all outside comm has been cut off.

...if possible.

To me this guy seems intent on getting the respect of being a nuclear power by the time he dies and thats not too far off apparently.
No talking is going to change that and there are really no more sanctions that will have an effect. Strap on your seatbelts - this is gonna be a rough ride.

I wouldn't be surprised if Japan and SK join in on an East Asian arm's race. They are already extremely scared of China's gaining power and wants an excuse to militarize as well.

I agree, but that is just the immediate effect - this will be further reaching than that.