Pending Invasion

[xoxoxoBruce]

Got in an email...

Maybe we should not have cut our military force back.
Maybe we need a president with military experience.
And more militant diplomats.

I responded with a long list of logistic and strategy problems that come into play, and got back...

...it is not halfway around the world Alaska is very close to Russia. They can attack us easily on the Alaska and northern Calif coasts.

Where do I even start.

[Dagney]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

Got in an email...

I responded with a long list of logistic and strategy problems that come into play, and got back...

Where do I even start.

If Sarah just turns off the porchlight, the Russians can't find her - yanno, since they're so close up there and all.

[tw]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

From email: Maybe we should not have cut our military force back.

A larger miltary does nothing for a political chess game. Where the board has far more than 64 squares. And most do not even know where all squares are located.

For example, Saakashvili discusses one square. Europe gets 30% of its gas (methane) from Russia. The Crimea apparently has a massive shale gas reserve. Had Ukraine moved politically more westward, Europe would be gas sufficient; not dependent on Russia.

Putin's actions may be knee-jerk. But he is also playing chess by planning all possible moves at least three in advance. He needed to make that gas available only through a Russian market; not via an EU nation.

The weakest part of this game is Europe whose leaders probably will not get off their ass to make a united stand (politically - not militarily). As in the Balkans, Europe may again need the US to get them to act in their own interests. And to realize what this long term game is that Putin is playing.

Closest Europe has to any leader with foresight is Merkel.

Putin has already exercised plans in Georgia, Armenia, and has one ongoing with Turkey. And apparently did not succeed in the Baltic nations.

And you thought 3D chess was hard.

[glatt]

Originally Posted by glatt

I have a hard time caring much that Russian troops are digging in there. I mean, Russia used to own the Ukraine. And the Ukraine let Russia have bases there. And the are lots of pro-Russia people there who welcome the troops. There's a sovereignty issue, sure, but I don't see why I should be getting worked up over it.

And why is Obama making it a thing? Russia's going to ignore him. And then he'll look like an ineffectual fool. And the entire US will too. The most we can expect him to do is throw some sanctions at Russia.

Basically, who cares?

OK, so just to recap events, Crimea held a vote and the majority of the citizens who voted said that they wanted to be with Russia. Russia wants Crimea. Crimea wants Russia. It's done.

I don't care about this issue. If the number of posts in this thread is any indication, the Cellar doesn't care about this issue either.

I still don't understand what Obama is doing trying to block this. I give the man credit for being intelligent, but I can't see it in this instance. By making it a thing, and then failing to prevent it, he doesn't look so good.

[xoxoxoBruce]

How about if Russia takes Alaska, no reason for Europeans to be concerned?

So if Christy sends thousands armed unmarked cops into Long Island, takes a poll saying most Long Islanders want to live in Jersey, and claims Long Island is now part of New Jersey, The other states shouldn't be concerned?

[Griff]

Russia has a long history in the Crimea and Alaska was paid for...

[tw]

Originally Posted by Griff

Russia has a long history in the Crimea and Alaska was paid for...

Nobody wants a slum. We already tapped out all oil in Alaska. Crimea has a potential major gas field.

Besides, Americans might get angry. Nobody cares if Ukrainians do. As Putin says, they are illegitament. Second class people no different then Czechs in the Sudetenland.

[glatt]

I just saw a short blurb in today's paper of some poll of American attitudes about this. Along bipartisan lines, most American don't trust Putin and don't like the guy, but also don't want the US to get involved in this Crimean issue.

[glatt]

Oh, and the radio this morning was saying that the Crimea sucks anyway. (Maybe it's a case of sour grapes.) But apparently, Crimea needs 40% of its economy subsidized by whatever country it belongs to. So the Ukraine will be losing a parasite and Russia will be gaining one, at least in the short term. Maybe the fossil fuels will eventually make Crimea a prize.

[Undertoad]

Europe has more experience with guys with control issues taking over powerless countries under any flimsy pretense. I'm sure they will signal the US when it's a real emergency.

Britain, don't complain about fracking. You'll need to do that in a few years, when Putin cuts off energy and the entire continent calls and asks you to rescue their ass again. The down side is you'll end up rich -- and hated. Welcome to our world, 51st state.

[Spexxvet]

Personally, I don't care about Crimea.

I can see where Russia/Crimea broke international law, and the US is the only entity willing/able to do something about it

On the other hand

The US took similar action in 1776, without joining with another country

[tw]

Originally Posted by glatt

Along bipartisan lines, most American don't trust Putin and don't like the guy, but also don't want the US to get involved in this Crimean issue.

First, this is a regional issue no different than Rwanda and Burundi, the Balkans, Syria, and Somolia. Merkel (who demonstrates leadership abilities) is even saying this. America's job is to backup its NATO allies who must be fully involved here - nothing else matters. Obama has been doing that. But you would never know this from the press ... especially due to pathetic responses from Italy, Britian, France, and other European leaders.

Crimea is gone. Time to avert this was long ago. Nobody is (should be) discussing that. Discussion should be about the response so that Ukraine is not invaded. So that another Georgia does not happen.

Second, the current response says no consequences exist when (if) Russia invades Ukraine. That should have everyones attentaion especially if distracted by something trivial like a missing airplane.

So what happens if Belarus or Russia invaded Ukranine using the same rationalization used by Hilter in Czechoslavakia? Ukraine is not a NATO country. It has no military alliances. And yet all of the EU and NATO must have a reaction clearly planned long before that happens. It is called Chess. To pretend every country in the world is not playing in this game is to all but want another Cold War. Don't fool yourself. This even affects disputes and solutions ongoing in the Senkukas, Arctic Ocean, Syria, Iran, and even the ISS. And Moldova.

An "I do not care" attitude is exactly what happened when an Iron Curtain decended on Eastern Europe. The attitude encouraged Stalin, create 50 years of crisis, the Korean War, and almost (many times) the destructiion of mankind.

Third, wasted bandwidth is discussion of a missing airliner. That is about emotion attached to something that does not have decades of consequences to every nation. What is happening in Ukraine , if ignored, can have major consequences for the next 50 years. It is no exaggeration that another Cold War was made necessary when trust was so subverted in 2000-2008.

No current news story is more serious; could potentially change everyone's future. But only if the "I don't care" attitude makes that happen. What happens now with every little response could defuse what is otherwise the precursor to WWIII. As happened in late 1940s Europe to almost blow up the entire world in the 1960s. It should be your most important new story. An "I don't care" atttitude is why it is so serious. As if nobody learned anything from Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, etc.

You do also know about the nine dash line?

[xoxoxoBruce]

The Battle for the Hearts and Minds...

From Pravda...

The media reported that the EU and the U.S. were negotiating with the current central government of Ukraine regarding the disposal of nuclear waste in the western territories of the country. According to some reports, Kiev would be paid a considerable sum of money that would help to stabilize the economic situation in the country for the provision of land for the burial of nuclear waste.

A reader of Pravda.Ru wrote: "in the south of Italy and the island of Sardinia radioactive waste is stockpiled, awaiting shipment to Ukraine. Containers arriving from Syria will also be sent our way, they are just waiting for the opposition to come to power. The source of information is our countrymen working in those areas in ports. Italians are chatty and readily disclose the destination of the dangerous goods. "

In addition, social network Maxpark reported that trucks with military and nuclear waste were already at the Polish-Ukrainian border, pending the signing of a contract for the burial on the territory of Ukraine.
Pravda.Ru reporter interviewed experts to find out whether Ukraine was facing a threat of becoming a nuclear burial ground for its western neighbors.

A deputy of the Ukrainian Party of Regions Oleg Tsarev noted that the negotiations on the disposal of nuclear waste on the territory of Ukraine began long before the current events.

Another one...

EU aid destroyed Portugal.
Portugal, a member of the EU since 1986, is rapidly losing its population due to significant emigration. In terms of the economic indicators Portugal is approaching the level of the least developed countries in the Eastern Europe. The decline became particularly rapid three years ago, when Portugal began to receive financial assistance from the EU. Isn't it an odd coincidence?

The country is deteriorating politically, economically, and morally. Public debt and unemployment are on the rise, and increasingly more able-bodied people of reproductive age are leaving the country. According to the data by Observatório da Emigração, since 2008 about 400,000 people left Portugal, it terms of the percentage of the total population (10.6 million people) this is the second maximum rate in Europe after Malta with a population of just under one million. The country has lost a fifth of its resources in the skilled labor segment.

[tw]

Since so little has hype to make the news, then many have little idea that a potential occupation of Ukraine remains ongoing. Putin has appeared to be doing nothing while major efforts are ongoing to create the next step in annexing Ukraine. If I did not note it in other threads, watch the city of Donetsk. Next step is to create instability in regions where Russians are a minority but a major section of that region. So that Russian armor and paratroops already massed on Ukraine borders can step in to restore order.

Negotiations were successful in slowing Putin. But we have no reason to believe he has tabled his ego. He made a big deal about withdrawing a few troops. While tens of thousands remains perched for invasion.

Putin has stated his intent - to restore Russia's power and glory. Putiin has again threatened Europe's gas supply. And will again cut off gas to Ukraine. Since the corruption by Yanukovych means $billion to pay previous gas bills is missing. Another excuse by Russia to increase pressure and harm to Ukraine's economy. To make instablity more likely.

He is playing a long term game. Opposition by Obama and Merkel have caused him to slow his game. But the game is still afoot.

[Urbane Guerrilla]

Originally Posted by tw

. . . Consequences exist because a US public loved a wacko extremist doing permentently damage America's reputation. An America that criticizes Putin must also acknowledge similar evils and lies performed by George Jr. No American president will do that.

Tw certainly will not think the present President is a wacko extremist, and hence this part of his post dwells in a particularly hazy cloud-cuckoo-land; execrable and highly dishonorable leftism raves through his frontal lobes, causing him to write pernicious drivel, often at length, and generally support Democratic candidates, as unbalanced as he is. While his hobby keeps him in the basement and off the streets, there its virtues rather come to an end.

I've been contemptuous of tw's political thinking from the first day I met it.