Global Warmists back off on prediction

Griff · 05-15-2007, 06:59 AM

Guess what? The earth's climate is kind of stable. Yes, global warming could be a problem, but we know that despite Al Gore's phoney charts, the earth has been warmer quite recently than it is now. Anyway, at least we can take this particular bit of paranoia off the table... unless these computer models are as bad as the previous ones. *dulp!*

OSLO — Mainstream climatologists who have feared that global warming could have the paradoxical effect of cooling northwestern Europe or even plunging it into a small ice age have stopped worrying about that particular disaster, although it retains a vivid hold on the public imagination.

glatt · 05-15-2007, 07:24 AM

This is interesting, because I just read in the paper yesterday that NASA has just completed some computer modeling that was too late to include in the inter-government panel's report a couple months ago. Their models show that the effects of global warming will be far worse much sooner than anyone else had predicted.

I'll see if I can dig that up.

Griff · 05-15-2007, 07:28 AM

I think the NASA model shows things getting hotter faster. This doesn't dispute that, they're just saying Northern Europe won't get cold from the changing current temp.

glatt · 05-15-2007, 07:50 AM

It will be interesting to see the changes in localized weather patterns as the average global temperature rises. The article about the NASA model said that for the Eastern US seaboard, the changes would not be good at all. Instead of summer temps in the upper 80s they were talking about summer temps over 100 for extended periods of time. This is by the end of the century.

xoxoxoBruce · 05-15-2007, 10:44 AM

They had a guy on the news over the weekend that was predicting 108 deg F for the East Coast Summers.

A hundred years from now.

Happy Monkey · 05-15-2007, 12:08 PM

Up ten degrees in 70 years. That's a hell of a lot.

But hey, we'll probably be dead by then. Our kids will probably invent a fix-everything ray in the last minute. Anything we do now is just wasting money.

Beestie · 05-15-2007, 12:56 PM

The unfortunate fact is that we really have no freakin' idea what the climate will be like in 10, 50 or 250 years. However, it does make good sense not to screw with the atmosphere or the oceans too much so we should probably just stick with that.

Less fortunate still is the sad fact that because there is so much static about who's right/wrong that even if someone did produce a correct model, we wouldn't even know it.

piercehawkeye45 · 05-15-2007, 03:06 PM

Equation for global warming.

X = Man made global warming

Y = Natural global warming

X + Y =10

Find X

xoxoxoBruce · 05-15-2007, 03:19 PM

Quote:

snip~even if someone did produce a correct model, we wouldn't even know it.

Nor would they.

Happy Monkey · 05-15-2007, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

Equation for global warming.

X = Man made global warming

Y = Natural global warming

X + Y =10

Find X

And as long as there's uncertainty about X, we should assume it's zero and not do anything.

piercehawkeye45 · 05-15-2007, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey

And as long as there's uncertainty about X, we should assume it's zero and not do anything.

Well, we always have the fix-everything ray if we are wrong.

Flint · 05-15-2007, 04:12 PM

I thought, maybe our kids should invent a time-machine, and bring the fix-everything-ray back here, but then I guess if they do that, they'd have done that, and everything could be fixed already. then I thought maybe there is a reason for that not happening yet, and then I thought there's a reason for everything, because The Lord works in mysterious ways. So, in conclusion, yeah we should just do nothing.

Beestie · 05-15-2007, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

Equation for global warming.

X = Man made global warming

Y = Natural global warming

X + Y =10

Find X

Why do X and Y sum to a constant? I think its...

X + Y = Z

Solve for Z.

HungLikeJesus · 05-15-2007, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

Equation for global warming.

X = Man made global warming
Y = Natural global warming
X + Y =10
Find X

Your reasoning reminds me of this scene in Fight Club:

Quote:

Narrator: A new car built by my company leaves somewhere traveling at 60 mph. The rear differential locks up. The car crashes and burns with everyone trapped inside. Now, should we initiate a recall? Take the number of vehicles in the field, A, multiply by the probable rate of failure, B, multiply by the average out-of-court settlement, C. A times B times C equals X. If X is less than the cost of a recall, we don't do one.
Business woman on plane: Are there a lot of these kinds of accidents?
Narrator: You wouldn't believe.
Business woman on plane: Which car company do you work for?
Narrator: A major one.

...except that X, the consequential cost, is probably a lot higher than the cost of fixing the problem.

xoxoxoBruce · 05-15-2007, 09:39 PM

Invest in high ground.

05-15-2007, 06:59 AM	#1
Griff still says videotape Join Date: Feb 2001 Posts: 26,813	Global Warmists back off on prediction Guess what? The earth's climate is kind of stable. Yes, global warming could be a problem, but we know that despite Al Gore's phoney charts, the earth has been warmer quite recently than it is now. Anyway, at least we can take this particular bit of paranoia off the table... unless these computer models are as bad as the previous ones. dulp! OSLO — Mainstream climatologists who have feared that global warming could have the paradoxical effect of cooling northwestern Europe or even plunging it into a small ice age have stopped worrying about that particular disaster, although it retains a vivid hold on the public imagination.

05-15-2007, 10:44 AM	#5
xoxoxoBruce The future is unwritten Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 71,105	They had a guy on the news over the weekend that was predicting 108 deg F for the East Coast Summers. A hundred years from now. __________________ The descent of man ~ Nixon, Friedman, Reagan, Trump.

05-15-2007, 12:08 PM	#6
Happy Monkey I think this line's mostly filler. Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: DC Posts: 13,575	Up ten degrees in 70 years. That's a hell of a lot. But hey, we'll probably be dead by then. Our kids will probably invent a fix-everything ray in the last minute. Anything we do now is just wasting money. __________________ _________________ \|...............\| We live in the nick of times. \| Len 17, Wid 3 \| \|_______________\| [pics]

05-15-2007, 12:56 PM	#7
Beestie -◊\|≡·∙■·∙≡\|◊- Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Parts unknown. Posts: 4,081	The unfortunate fact is that we really have no freakin' idea what the climate will be like in 10, 50 or 250 years. However, it does make good sense not to screw with the atmosphere or the oceans too much so we should probably just stick with that. Less fortunate still is the sad fact that because there is so much static about who's right/wrong that even if someone did produce a correct model, we wouldn't even know it. __________________ ♠ ♥ ♣ ♦

05-15-2007, 04:12 PM	#12
Flint Snowflake Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Dystopia Posts: 13,136	I thought, maybe our kids should invent a time-machine, and bring the fix-everything-ray back here, but then I guess if they do that, they'd have done that, and everything could be fixed already. then I thought maybe there is a reason for that not happening yet, and then I thought there's a reason for everything, because The Lord works in mysterious ways. So, in conclusion, yeah we should just do nothing. __________________ **************** There's a level of facility that everyone needs to accomplish, and from there it's a matter of deciding for yourself how important ultra-facility is to your expression. ... I found, like Joseph Campbell said, if you just follow whatever gives you a little joy or excitement or awe, then you're on the right track. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Terry Bozzio**

05-15-2007, 07:24 AM	#2
glatt ™ Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Arlington, VA Posts: 27,717	This is interesting, because I just read in the paper yesterday that NASA has just completed some computer modeling that was too late to include in the inter-government panel's report a couple months ago. Their models show that the effects of global warming will be far worse much sooner than anyone else had predicted. I'll see if I can dig that up.

05-15-2007, 07:28 AM	#3
Griff still says videotape Join Date: Feb 2001 Posts: 26,813	I think the NASA model shows things getting hotter faster. This doesn't dispute that, they're just saying Northern Europe won't get cold from the changing current temp.

05-15-2007, 07:50 AM	#4
glatt ™ Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Arlington, VA Posts: 27,717	It will be interesting to see the changes in localized weather patterns as the average global temperature rises. The article about the NASA model said that for the Eastern US seaboard, the changes would not be good at all. Instead of summer temps in the upper 80s they were talking about summer temps over 100 for extended periods of time. This is by the end of the century.

05-15-2007, 03:06 PM	#8
piercehawkeye45 Franklin Pierce Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Minnesota Posts: 3,695	Equation for global warming. X = Man made global warming Y = Natural global warming X + Y =10 Find X

05-15-2007, 09:39 PM	#15
xoxoxoBruce The future is unwritten Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 71,105	Invest in high ground. __________________ The descent of man ~ Nixon, Friedman, Reagan, Trump.

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