Spillover from the political forum

[lookout123]

For anyone who already read this over there - i am sorry. i haven't changed anything in it so just skip to the next step.

Pop quiz: If this far fetched alternate future happened, where would you go? what would you do? can you cope? how many guns do you carry? do you take lots of people with you and set up camp or do you just go with your immediate family and hide out? do we have one of the future leaders of this conflict within our own cellar?

post election 2004. extremely problematic election.

Scenario: i think there would be an internal power struggle with the big players activating military forces to counteract a "terrorist attack", which is of course their own uprising. senior military officers will of course be in on it and as the calls go down the chain some branches of the military will land on either side of the conflict. civil war involving our own military without the shooters even knowing what is happening in the beginning, by the time they do it is too late. individuals and small groups (think some members of the cellar) will collect their guns, camping gear, and families and head to the hills a la Red Dawn . soon the entire nation is involved in a guerilla style civil war with 2 governments in place. the "leftist" forces will be based in washington dc and the "conservative patriots" will be based from San Antonio. WMD will not be used because everyone knows someone on the other side, but a hell of a lot of lead will fly. after enough of the existing command structure has disintegrated prominent members of the EU will see this as their chance to regain their rightful place as leaders of the world and will go to the UN asking for action against the former US to protect the world from the Nuclear weapons that are in the control of opposing factions. the UN will of course support intervention which the factions will reject. The UN/EU will send in "peacekeeping" forces who will enter the conflict as a 3rd party with all 3 sides fighting each other. russia will invade alaska for easy access to oil. japan will invade hawaii, guam, etc. Canada will slowly stretch into some of the northern tier states. eventually the UN/EU forces will realize that they can't suppress the conflict because the military forces are the least of their worries; every crazy ass american with a glock and a .22 is taking potshots at them so they say screw it and leave. the firefights will slow down as the fragmentary groups divide into regions by race and religion issues. it will calm into a cold war for awhile and someday the former US will be like the Europe of the early 20th century - many small countries on one continent.

[jaguar]

There are times I wonder about this. If and when I have the cash my intention is to organise a group of around 20 people, buy a warehouse (something in the 30x30m range), 4 unimogs, 3 preferably armoured offroad vehicles and the equipment needed to establish basic farming, power supply etc. A fair amount of high illegal weaponary would be wise as well. In the event of something happening that suggests it's time to high-tail it, meet up, whoever gets there in time comes and get going. Of course if I was back in melbourne it'd make more sense to convert a fishing vessel and head to the uncharted wilds of Tasmania.

Your little scenario does get less and less realistic though. It would be facinating to read all the classified 'what ifs' that the US govt brainstorms, instructions for silo commanders in the event of a chain of command colapse etc. every few years the aussie does an informal survey - in the event of a chain of command colapse or similar event would your loyalty lie with the government of the day, the head of the military or your CO, overwhelming answer is always the CO.

If anyone is wondering this is not related to the 4x4 discussion in LJs forum, it did educate me a little though.

[lookout123]

i know it is unrealistic. i was just pounding it out really fast and then posted it thinking it was fairly humorous. then i got to thinking about it. when i was active duty we would have excercises - the theory was that we could move the functions of an entire air base in 72 hours. the whole process started with a telephone call from the base commander, who would have been notified from the really higher-ups. some of us were sitting around BSing the idea of what would happen if there were some folks who wanted a coup? wouldn't activating a few bases on the premise of "defending" the government in DC from a coup be the easiest way to get it started.

anyway - for me and mine i don't want any special equipment. normal firearms that won't sound out of place if fired, good quality camping equipment, non-perishable food stuffs, military mre's i have 2 dependable offroad vehicles of a common make and model, functional non-military clothing so as not to draw too much attention. a couple of different mountain cabin locations within 1-3 hours drive... not that i day dream about it at all.

[jaguar]

I would have thought military gear and equip would be good, paints you in the 'do not fuck with this person they will fill you with lead' category.

[lookout123]

Originally Posted by jaguar

I would have thought military gear and equip would be good, paints you in the 'do not fuck with this person they will fill you with lead' category.

maybe, it could also paint you in the "i'm gonna fuck with this person to show 'em i'm tougher than them" category. i prefer to talk softly, blend in, and carry a kick ass arsenal under my jacket. i've found that true leaders are usually the ones you don't expect it from. the tough-guy, high school quarterback, knuckle-dragging, mouth breathing types usually fold under pressure. IMO

also - if i am in hiding from the war - i want to be inconspicuous as possible. and eddie bauer tent and an F150 will stand out less than a camouflage tent and an armored vehicle.

[wolf]

I am sorry, but I cannot disclose any plans in this regard. None of you are cleared to the necessary level. In any event, I can neither confirm nor deny that there are any such plans in place.

[lookout123]

oh, c'mon wolf - i was really looking forward to yours. i gotta believe you have a little of the "red dawn" in you.

[Troubleshooter]

Originally Posted by wolf

I am sorry, but I cannot disclose any plans in this regard. None of you are cleared to the necessary level. In any event, I can neither confirm nor deny that there are any such plans in place.

[flashback to clearance days]*shudders*[/flashback to clearance days]

[jaguar]

Hm you're right, i guess I look at different scenarios.

What interests me is how little it takes for cities to colapse. When you talk to guys that play out scenarios like this for a job, particularly for risk assessment work for financial firms. Take for example the heatwave in Chicago in 95, it was close to causing breakdown of the emergency services. It was a heatwave. Our infrastructure is incredibly vunerable, it's not designed to cope with any major rapid change or any kind of major breakdown, the scenarios that can cause mass death and total colapse of authority are endless. The edge is always closer than we think.

[lookout123]

Originally Posted by jaguar

...The edge is always closer than we think.

i know that is why i decided to turn a new leaf. after i make money selling quality investments to my clients i'll take my entire check to the lottery booth. if i do that often enough i HAVE to win, right??? then when i win i will take the money, buy my own island and live out the rest of my life as a hermit shooting at ships that get too close to my island... maybe planes too.


ok, maybe i should lay off the caffeine. or the meth. *plea to wolf * Help?

[russotto]

Originally Posted by jaguar

What interests me is how little it takes for cities to colapse. When you talk to guys that play out scenarios like this for a job, particularly for risk assessment work for financial firms. Take for example the heatwave in Chicago in 95, it was close to causing breakdown of the emergency services.

"We were this -><- close to collapse" == "We want more money".

The edge is NOT all that close. And even when it's reached, total collapse of authority is not the result -- rather, things go out of control for a while, and authority re-asserts itself. See any riot for an example, or any large set of riots for a better example. Society -- at least Western society -- is STABLE. Depressingly so, for any revolutionary.

[jaguar]

Well yes and no. More stable of late for a variety of reasons, whether it will remain stable is another matter.

The first thing is you're confusing stability and flexability. Look at the relative insanity of the middle ages, wars raging everywhere and all the associated chaos yet somehow, things went on.

Colapse is complicated, without specifying a certain scenario or trigger the extent, bredth and timeframe is pointless to speculate but the amount of damoclean swords that could trigger long term failure are in double figures. A riot is over faily quickly but what about someone unleashing some of those tasty anti-food supply bioagents the soviets kindly developed, then watch the impact of rioting and chaos as dirty bombs spray radioactive isotopes across a few major cities Green Run style (notorious intentional release of about 350,000 curies worth of radioactive isotopes by the US army).

Hell, something as simple as a serious nuclear weapon going off in the middle of Europe could cause at least medium term breakdown. In short, you're not thinking big enough, the kind of sceanrios that get gamed out are well beyond rioting, rioting is a side effect, not a root cause.

Lets play a game. I want to fuck up the UK. Let's get to work. First of all, we're going to bomb two seperate nuclear holding facalities, these tanks hold millions of litres on some seriously nasty stuff. They're well re-inforced by modern anti-bunker shoulder mounted weaponary could do the job. As huge clouds of radioactive material spew forth anthrax is being released in 20-30 location, aerosol style, killing both wildlife and people, not to mention causing a total breakdown in cities as people flea both. The anthrax lives in the soil for up to 20 years rendering most farmland inhabitable, though that's the least of your problems when you consider the radiological contamination, cities lie abandoned, must of europe is a wasteland.

[Uryoces]

Originally Posted by russotto

"We were this -><- close to collapse" == "We want more money".

The edge is NOT all that close. And even when it's reached, total collapse of authority is not the result -- rather, things go out of control for a while, and authority re-asserts itself. See any riot for an example, or any large set of riots for a better example. Society -- at least Western society -- is STABLE. Depressingly so, for any revolutionary.

I think it's resistance to change more than anything. People want to eat, buy smokes, drink in bars, etc. They kind of touched on that in the Matrix actually, something along the lines of people becoming so dependent on the Matrix [stable society], that they wouldn't want the alternative.

[lookout123]

hmmm, jag i like the way you think. continue please.

[jaguar]

I've always wondered what would happen to a nuclear submarine in the event of a US civil war. I mean you've got a completely silent sub capable of staying underwater for months that suddenly has o boss and is armed with 30 odd nukes capable of hitting 4 or so targets each that suddenly has no command.

I know there are a shitload of scenarios involving rogue subs, if one of those crews decided to somehow blackmail fucking everyone, they could. As for remote overrides on nuke launches, when you've got months to pull apart electronics you've worked with for years and re-wire them, I doubt they'd pose much of a probem.

I'll have a beer to go with my apocalypse thanks.