Betting tips

[classicman]

As you can probably tell, I have placed exactly zero bets in my life. I'm curious and I'm attempting to follow the logic. thanks.

[W.HI.P]

Sunday December 20
1]New Orleans Bowl
Southern Mississippi[-3.5] - Middle Tenn. St.

Monday December 28
2]Independence Bowl
Texas A&M - Georgia[-7.0]

Tuesday December 29
3]Champs Sports Bowl
Miami (FL)[-3.5] - Wisconsin

4]Sun Bowl
Oklahoma[-9.5] - Stanford

5]Capital One Bowl
Penn St.[-2.5] - LSU

6]Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma St. - Mississippi[-3.0]

Tuesday January 5
7]Orange Bowl
Iowa - Georgia Tech[-4.0]

Thursday January 7
8]BCS Championship
Texas - Alabama[-5.5]

8 games combined make up 56 bets
$100 a bet x 56 = $5.600

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124
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128
134
135
136
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138
145
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148
156
157
158
167
168
178
234
235
236
237
238
245
246
247
248
256
257
258
267
268
278
345
346
347
348
356
357
358
367
368
378
456
457
458
467
468
478
567
568
578
678

3 wins = $700
4 wins = $2.800
5 wins = $7.000
6 wins = $14.000
7 wins = $24.500
8 wins = $39.200

[W.HI.P]

despite some good games, lets take it easy till the free money play-off games come.

1] atlanta falcons vs new orlean saints[-10.5]
2]minnesota vikings[-7.0] vs cincinnati bengals
3]dallas cowboys[-1.5] vs san diego chargers
4]new york giants vs philadelphia eagles[-1.5]
5]san fransisco 49ers vs arizona cardinals[-6.5]

10 bets x $300 = $3.000

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345

3 wins = $2.100
4 wins = $8.400
5 wins = $21.000

the idea here is to get 4 wins if you can.
5 wins is not really expected, but may come for that big cash-out.
hopefully if its a bad week, we get $2.100 back out of the $3.000 wagered.

[xxxshowxxx]

1] Green Bay [-3.0] vs Chicago
2]San Diego vs Dallas[-3]
3]dallas cowboys[-1.5] vs san diego chargers
4]new york giants vs philadelphia eagles[-1.5]5]san fransisco 49ers vs arizona cardinals[-3.5]

10 bets x $300 = $3.000

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345

And also i predict :
Min -6.5 Over Cin
Ind -6.5 over Den
Buf -2 over KS
NYJ -3 over TB
Miami +3 over jack
Det +14 over Bal
And finally NO -9.5 over atl

[xxxshowxxx]

1] Green Bay [-3.0] vs Chicago
2]San Diego vs Dallas[-3]
3]NYJ -3 vs TB
4]new york giants vs philadelphia eagles[-1.5]
5]san fransisco 49ers vs arizona cardinals[-3.5]

[xxxshowxxx]

Whips got a great method of betting here its all about the base teams winning and if you can pick to winning spreads in a week which is really easy then your making money easy easy money !

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by xxxshowxxx

Whips got a great method of betting here its all about the base teams winning and if you can pick to winning spreads in a week which is really easy then your making money easy easy money !

thanks there xxxshowxxx ,as i've said before, this thread is not so much about what to bet on, but how to bet.

i see you've done pretty well this week... 4 out of 4

1] Green Bay [-3.0] vs Chicago
2]San Diego vs Dallas[-3]
3]NYJ -3 vs TB
4]new york giants vs philadelphia eagles[-1.5]
5]san fransisco 49ers vs arizona cardinals[-3.5]

10 bets x $300 = $3.000

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345

well, you're already cashing in on $8.400.
with a chance to make it $21.000 if arizona beats the spread...not bad , not bad at all.

[W.HI.P]

just so people get the true idea of what this sytem is, i'll go into further detail.

most people, make one straight bet on 3-6 games.
this would require them to win 100 percent of their games to cash in.
if we look at our accomplishments over the past 3 years in this thread, we will see that the majority of time, while picking 5 games, we get [3 out of 5] or [4 out of 5] correct.
if we were to have wagered these weeks the way the majority of people gamble, we would have zero returns on these weeks.

what this system provides is, instead of winning nothing on weeks where you go [3 out of 5] or [4 out of 5], you collect almost all of your money back while going [3 out of 5], and almost tripling your money while going [4 out of 5].

in a 3 week span, if you can achieve [4 out of 5] in 1 of those weeks, you will be in a positive $ net.

the only negative aspect of this defencive system of wagering, is that should a week come around where you achieve [5 out of 5] your return is less than it would be than if you had bet the way most people bet.
lets use xxxshowxxx's week for example.
he's gone 4 out of 4 with 1 game left.

what position would you rather be in.
having wagered $3.000

would you rather have $8.400 already won and $21.000 sitting on arizona -3.5?

or would you chose to be in a position where you've won nothing, but
waiting on $60.000.

greed would have us going after the larger sum, but thats where they get us.

if you do the math, you'll see that [4 out of 5] comes a lot more often than [5 out of 5], and i'd like to cash in on that $8.400, so that its all good in the end no matter how that 5th game goes.

look at the net of the year rather than the particular week you're in.

[xxxshowxxx]

hey guys well i guess luck was not with me completely last week end as arizona did not come threw but as whip was saying the method works for example if i were to of made the 5 team bet i would of lost as sure as i was on arizona winning they didnt. they had a terrible game and because of the defensive betting i stil won.Hopefully this week i can go 5 for 5 with these picks.

1] Ind -3 over Jack
2]GB +2 over Pit
3]NYG -3 over Was
4]Phi -8 over SF
5]Ks -1.5 over clev

10 bets x $300 = $3.000

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And also for the remaining game:

NO -7 over Dal
Buf +7 over NE
Ari -12 over Det
Chi+11 over Bal
Oak+14 over denver
Seatle -6.5 over TB
MIN -9 over Car

[classicman]

That Philly pick scares me - although I'm a nobody and never bet anything.
Well actually I bet Radar once. . . sorta. I was right, but he'll never admit it.

[W.HI.P]

we'll be using saturday nights game as our base.

1]new orlean saints[-7.0] vs dallas cowboys

i don't get the hype that this new orleans team is getting.
this attack, is as good as it was last year.
it was amazing last year, and it is amazing this year.
what has improved a little bit, is their defence.
does it make them more of a contender than last year?
possibly.
this bet is not about that, its about this weeks game against the desperate cowboys.
with the saints motives under serious question in addition to the perception of the masses, we'll have to use this game as a base.


2]tennessee titans[-3.5] vs miami dolphins

this dolphins team is what it is because of bill.
no ronnie brown injury is gonna get rid of this team, which has introduced a revolution of the sport that is being used throughout the nfl and college football.
the miami dolphins can win this division for the 2nd year in a row, but they're gonna have to beat the titans in tennessee to maintain their title.

3]seattle seahawks[-7.5] vs tampa bay bucs

both teams motives are under question here, as both teams are looking to lose for draft purposes at this point.
it is more than likely that the home team achieves this draft goal.
huge 7.5 point cushion on ability alone.

4]pittsburgh steelers vs green bay packers[-1.5]

i have to give some credit to ben here as he has taken a greater beating over the past 2 seasons than any qb in the league.
he is an iron horse.
the attack is a mess.
the steelers are falling to the pit of the nfl.
however, their aging defence, although on the way out, still has this time to play, and they will.
watch this possible wild card packers attack to get banged up in these match-ups

5]carolina panthers vs minnesota vikings[-9.5].

its resting time.

6]washington redskins vs new york giants[-3.5]

the redskins need to replace clinton portis, and they're aiming very very high in the draft.
is the team capable? clearly they are, but they will not win this game.
the chances of the giants winning by 3 points is a lot less probable than the chances of the giants winning by 4 or more, so given the odds, we're gonna have to go with the play-off team.

1 base combined with 5 games make up 10 bets.
10 bets x $300 = $3.000

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the base with

2 wins = $2.100
3 wins = $6.300
4 wins = $12.600
5 wins = $21.000

[xxxshowxxx]

Originally Posted by xxxshowxxx

And also for the remaining game:

NO -7 over Dal
Buf +7 over NE
Ari -12 over Det
Chi+11 over Bal
Oak+14 over denver
Seatle -6.5 over TB
MIN -9 over Car

Im actually gona switch the NE game pick and Put it NE -7 Over buffalo as i dont see buffalo matching NE offensively. i think this game will be a 10 pointer by the end.

[xxxshowxxx]

Originally Posted by W.HI.P

4]pittsburgh steelers vs green bay packers[-1.5]

i have to give some credit to ben here as he has taken a greater beating over the past 2 seasons than any qb in the league.
he is an iron horse.
the attack is a mess.
the steelers are falling to the pit of the nfl.
however, their aging defence, although on the way out, still has this time to play, and they will.
watch this possible wild card packers attack to get banged up in these match-ups

Hey whip regarding this pick you have. The pittsburgh steelers defence in regards to the QB has been below par if i must say and against a weaker clev team Pit was ruined on sacked and ben was tossed around. how will Pit fair beter against a beter GB team who has been playing prety well lately. Pit had there game to win last week and i see this being a close game but it coming down to who can play the best defence. if Ben cant get the ball off then he cant do much. i see GB playing better on defence and several sacks against PIt.

[W.HI.P]

the steelers ol was outmatched last week against the browns dl, you could see that coming from a mile away.
any week is projected to be a bad week for the steelers protection, but i'm afraid the packers ol is completely outmatched against the steelers kinda pressure, which is overwhelmingly superior to the packers.

i'm not sure how long you've been reading this thread, but nobody on this planet has been pointing at the steelers ol longer than i have.
i'm aware of how weak it is, the difference in this particular game where both ol's are outmatched, is the qb's.
rogers will not have time to use his weapons to their specific attributes.
rogers is not quite as tough as ben is.

maybe we should be giving the under

[lumberjim]

I was actually feeling kind of optimistic about the cowboys chances in New Orleans.....then I read this thread, and WHiP is picking the boys.

I don't like it. I don't like it a little bit.

I still think we take the Saints' perfect record away tonight.

I'm even wearing my Romo jersey today. last time i wore it, the cowboys beat the iggles 20-16. what could possiblie go rong?