Dow drops to 5 year low after speech

[tw]

Originally posted by Tobiasly
Just out of curiosity tw, did Clinton or his friends ever do anything wrong?

For that matter, have Dubya or his friends ever done anything right?

Clinton's first two years were just terrible. It took him time to get his staff together and functional. I never did vote for Clinton. But then Clinton's first two years were not as bad as George Jr.

George Jr promised to be a man of consensus. It was said that much of what he did in TX was in concert with the TX Democratic party. However, and so far, he has done anything but that. He has been adversarial and confrontational. Christie Whitman is told what the EPA will decide. The China Spy Plane incident demonstrated who really runs the henhouse. Colin Powell appears to be running a rear guard action as right wing extremist dictate policies that in some case, the entire G-8 and entire UN Security Council disagree with - and rightly so.

The Economist recently did a piece on Tony Blair, George Jr's closest international ally. Blair's own domestic popularity and EU influence are both being undermined by his association with George Jr. Our other closest friends are talking among themselves in worry about a less responsible 800 pound gorilla that now act unilaterally - without even consulting its closest friends.

In April 2001, the 2002 budget as submitted, reduced the SEC staff when it was long obvious even during in the Clinton Administration that SEC needed massively more staff, money, and enforcment power. Even worse, turnover in the SEC is so high that the entire staff is virtually gone within three years.

Even worse is Harvey Pitts (SEC Commissioner) response. He wants a trivial $100 million for staff overtime - the number of companies now in SEC investigation is a continuous, weekly wave. Even Cheney's Haliburton is under investigation. But the SEC commissioner sees no conflict of interest in investigating the man who hired him. Almost as if the SEC commissioner was told at the White House what the SEC needs do. Decisions based first upon what is written in the political bible - facts of the problem be damned.

Clinton badly mishandled early government direction changes such as health insurance and gays in military. But Clinton at least did not try to gut basic government services when those services were most required and did not massively increase government spending in wild and unnecessary functions. Clinton did not submit outright budget lies such as a massively reorganized Homeland Security office that would cost $0 - classic MBA thinking to make the books look as the top man wants them to look - reality be damned.

George Jr has also demonstrated two poor years. Only his radical extremist supporters would have said otherwise. The question is whether he can rein in his extrmists and move forward with what government really needs to address - domestic issues being number 1. George Jr has a fear of doing anything Clinton - therefore will not say "Its the economy stupid".

So far, George Jr's agenda has been only to do everything different from Clinton - facts and issues be damned. As a result, other nations are now openly grumbling that they must do something about an irresponsible and unconstrained 800 Lbs gorrilla that threatens to make life difficult for all. Those nations are suppose to be America's closest friends.

Rather scary how this administration is meddling in the politics and policies of virtually every nation in Central Asia and Middle East. This warmongering attitude - to see enemies everywere - are what got us into VietNam. That would not be so bad except that George Jr and his adminstration do so without any apparent foresight as to the dangers they expose us to. Just the planning for an unjustified attack on Iraq demonstrates how naive this adminstration is about getting into quicksand - without any real agenda and by outrightly ignoring the lessons of history.

George Jr has had a terrible two years. Like Clinton, he could reform. However George Jr's future plans are only for things that will make things worse. Unjustified attacks on other nations. The destruction of government budget surpluses so quickly. Even a pathetic response to widespread corporate corruption. These are not things a president does today to say next year that he has improved America. When it comes to major Presidental functions, this president has yet so accomplish anything positive. The massive budget deficit created so quickly in combination with mythical budget control on spending suggest things have only started to get worse. In thirty years, no President, except Nixon, has ever earned so little respect so quickly.

[spinningfetus]

Originally posted by Tobiasly


The whole reacting-to-9/11 thing. I shudder to think of what Gore would (or wouldn't) have done.

And although I agree to an extent that our political system discourages good leaders, we are obviously talking about two separate things if you think Jesse Ventura is a good example of that.

You thought he did a good job with 9-11? Now I'm really intrigued, in what aspects?

My comments on Ventura have more to do with comment on a political system in with pro wrestlers are able to capitalize on their fame enough to gain office. As well as the fact that most of those guys are more popular amoung many americans than any politcal leaders.

[tw]

The market rose 35 points last weekin expectation of a speech on Wall Street by George Jr. His speech was so pathetic that the market immediately dropped that day and every day since to finish the worst week since 11 Sept. This week, it continued that down attitude until, after droppng the Dow another 400 points in one day, analysts decided it was bargin hunting time. Still the market dropped today. Then Greespan gave a speech.

Greenspan talked responsibly noting that economic fundamentals are solid and that corporate problems are directly traceable to top management. He said that a responsible CEO wants solid, consistent, boring, spread sheets so that he can learn what did and did not work inside his company. Irresponsible CEOs instead only want to look good to the public. This is what Wall Street wants to hear - not the nonsense in speeches from a President who was also investigated for insider trading when George Sr was president.

One of the stupid ideas by George Jr is a fraud task force in the Justice Department. Bull. That is what the SEC is for. However for some reason (maybe because of past investigations of George Jr), George Jr refuses to empower the SEC. Harvey Pitts is clearly demonstrating the White House line that the SEC needs no enforcement or investigative powers and money. And yet that is exactly what the Clinton White House and current Congress both deem necessary. What makes George Jr so obstinate?

At least Greenspan is saying what mustbe said. Markets respond positively to honest talk. George Jr is operating consistently. Clinton wanted to fix the problem using the SEC - using what the SEC was setup and designed to do. But George JR instead created more bureacracy elsewhere. Just so we don't do what Clinton recommended? Why does this president so fear Clinton? Or is he more driven by his 'previous insider trading' mentality to properly fund the SEC?

[Undertoad]

...and even after Greenspan, the market wound up down on the day.

I wouldn't put too much blame on the speeches. These days the market is going down when somebody sneezes.

[russotto]

The market reacts to bad news by dropping, and to good news by either dropping or doing nothing. I think some aerosol Prozac on the trading floors is called for.

[MaggieL]

Originally posted by russotto
The market reacts to bad news by dropping, and to good news by either dropping or doing nothing. I think some aerosol Prozac on the trading floors is called for.

It's called a correction.

People have suddenly realized that stocks aren't a lottery, they're a way of participating in the profitablility of a company, and that for the game to work the company needs to actually be profitable. Until the boards and stockholders start rewarding management for actual success instead of falling for smoke and mirrors and handing out golden parachutes, we're not going to see many truly profitable companies.

There's no point in paying a premium to be a part of the lottery anymore, so now the stocks are seeking price levels that their true values will support.

[spinningfetus]

Down another 200 as of 1 pm monday. When is the White House going to admit that there may be a problem on our hands???

[elSicomoro]

Who says there is necessarily a problem? If anything, the problem appears to be psychological on the part of the traders.

The fundamentals of the economy seem solid, so this could still be part of the correction.

[spinningfetus]

Originally posted by sycamore

The fundamentals of the economy seem solid, so this could still be part of the correction.

Bush's mantra I know, but if greed is you fundamental aren't these scandals just a logical outcome, rather than an anomoly?

[elSicomoro]

Originally posted by spinningfetus
Bush's mantra I know, but if greed is you fundamental aren't these scandals just a logical outcome, rather than an anomoly?

It's not just Bush's mantra, though he was spot on yesterday.

I'm afraid I don't understand what you were saying in the portion I italicized. As a whole, I would say that greed should be expected out of some businesses. Unfortunately, the ones that have been caught recently are big guns.

[tw]

Originally posted by sycamore
Who says there is necessarily a problem? If anything, the problem appears to be psychological on the part of the traders.
The fundamentals of the economy seem solid, so this could still be part of the correction.

An invested public whose confidence in how government is handling widespread corporate fraud suddenly turned into a herd mentality of theater goers who discovered fire existed behind the smoke - despite what management (government) kept saying.

Months ago, it was clear that fire was not isolated to a broom closet. Government said nothing. OK. Economic fundamentals are still good - although not great.. Air is still breathable. Investors either withdrew to cash or sat to wait out the event. However, so many falsified spread sheets in cooperation with at least four of the big five accounting firms; then Enron. Clearly government was going to do something. Investors still waited.

George Jr finally defined a government's response to widespread corruption. He endorsed a policy of business as usual - do nothing - protect top executives. That did it. Investors began running for the door when it became obvious that George Jr would deny a fire even if his own arm was burning.

The Economist, a conservative publication, summarizes best:

For an administration haunted by the ghost of George Bush Senior, whose defeat in 1992 was blamed on a sluggish economy, the parallels are becoming painful, not least because the current president's efforts to assure Americans are also falling flat.
Mr Bush's trip to Wall Street to preach about corporate ethics was widely derided as too little, too late. This week's follow-up, a hastily arranged pep talk on the economy in Alabama, proved another embarrassment.

That was last week. Earlier this week, George Jr gave another speech. The market dropped another 200+ points in direct response.

It is irrelevant whether the economy is sluggish, in recession, or recovering. Investors are saying, in large numbers, that government response is favoring people who are the problem. George Jr's solutions ignore reasons for this problem - many of whom are his biggest campaign contributors.

Fundamental to the problem is an accounting industry that sets their own stanadards: GAAP -via their own FASB. The accounting industry does not even have to be responsible for their own work! Such problems are not widespread in the IASB which sets international standards for accounting. For all the worry that corrupt accounting practices are worldwide - where is the evidence? Evidence is in waves only in US corporations, many using practices deemed acceptable by GAAP, intentionally deceive their investors and even their own Board of Directors for self serving interests of management.

As if it was not bad enough, Harvey Pitts of the SEC appears disinterested in addressing widespread corporate fraud causing demands for his resignation. Will that happen? If yes, it will occur months later when all this quiets down. However, based upon George Jr's own response (actually no response), it appears unlikely - which was just another reason for stockmarket downturn.

Today something happened. The market went up with first indications that government might do something to address the problem. Investors are so disappointed with George Jr's response that a few pieces of good news caused the highest one day upturn in the market in 15 years - and the second highest point gain ever on the DOW.

First, congressional Republicans finally decided to side with inverstors rather than with corporate corruption. The House and Senate agreed in committee on a bill to address some problems. Incomplete but at least it was something from a Republican dominated government that outrightly lied - foolishly said last Monday that everything will get better now that Worldcom declared bankruptcy. We still have more bad news coming, but at least someone in government thinks better of honesty in American accounting practices. Congressional Republicans have stopped protecting criminal actions - and demanded some responsibility from corporate management. The laws in that bill are really trivial - do very little to address the problem. But congressional Republicans conceded because most of America (according to polls) is saying what is in this post - address corporate corruption now.

Second, in Congressional testimony today, it appears that Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase were not intentionally involved in the Enron coverup. Another reason for an upturn.

Third, evidence is starting to emerge that some companies such as ExxonMobil have been honest in their bookkeeping and that 3M is even being profitable - more good news.

Fourth - a coup de grace. Adelphia executives who stole $millions, maybe with cooperation of their accounting firm, were hauled off in handcuffs. Those handcuffs pictured on screens all through Wall Street that finally said, "maybe somebody in government *does* care to address corruption even if the president and his SEC Chairman do not".

Those who said, "It's called a correction" were only fooling themselves. If the market needed correction, it would not have been so much so fast. If it was only a correction, then a little good news about government responding to outright corporate fraud would not have created this 15 year record gain. Two glaring reasons why calling it a correction was rediculous. The market is so frustrated with government's response to outright corruption that only minor good news resulted in an almost 500 point gain in only one day! It demonstrates how 'out of touch' investors consider government in general and the George Jr administration in particular. This downturn is directly traceable to government's no response to standardized corruption - including by some of its own people. (Testimony earlier this week said Cheney clear knew every detail of accounting fraud in Haliburton.)

As Sycamore noted, economic fundamentals are not bad AND are slowly improving. There was no reason for a correction this fast and this deep based upon market prices or the economy. A market meltdown and corresponding one day gain demonstrate that the reason for a bad market is the administration's and Republican party's response to obvious and widespread corruption. Making a little effort to address corruption nearly set records on Wall Street. Investors are that starved for any government reponse to the problem.

Don't get cocky. There are probably more down days ahead. Today's news was really minor and mostly psychological. When the market realizes that, it will slip back some. More bad corporate news may be forthcoming. The market may rattle about at its lows at least for a week - maybe more. But at least someone in government wants to hold corporate criminals responsible - something that was not apparent last week by everything that George Jr said.

[tw]

Warren Buffet talks honest:

If stock options aren't a form of compensation, what are they? If compensation isn't an expense, then what is it? And if expenses shouldn't go into the calculation of earnings, where in the world do they go?

Buffet was talking honestly. So was Dick Cheney before we discovered the books in Haliburton had been cooked. In discussing his firm's accountants - Arthur Andersen:

One of the things I like that they do for us is that ... I get good advice ... over and above the normal by-the-books audit arrangements.

America may have rediscovered the purpose of accounting that the FASB seems to have forgotten - The Economist of 2 May 2002:

The primary purpose of financial statements is to show the underlying economic performance of a company. The balance sheet provides a snapshot, at a moment in time, of the assets, liabilities and capital of the business; and the income statement, or profit-and-loss account, shows the difference between total revenues and total expenses. The auditors vouchsafe that these present a fair view, acknowledging the subjective nature of some of the measures behind the accounts. The independence of the auditors guarantees, in theory, that “fair” is just that.
Somewhere along the line, though, things seem to have gone wrong. “Our financial reporting model is broken,” said Joseph Berardino, former head of Andersen, Enron's auditor, last year. Designed in the 1930s for an industrial age, financial statements, he argued, look backwards to historic costs; they give investors little clue about the future. Companies cannot include internally-produced software, drugs or brands in their balance sheets because they are intangible assets. That has led to an increasing gap between the value of companies as measured by the stockmarket and the value measured by their account ...