12/19: White Xmas probability

Undertoad · 12-19-2001, 12:56 PM

OK, these probabilities were determined yesterday, and this GIF image is too big and will take a while to load, but anyway...

For all the weather maps that we see, I don't recall ever having seen this particular one: probability of a white Xmas, a week out.

As time goes by, the ability of meteorologists to accurately predict this sort of thing will improve. They've probably been able to make a mpa like this, but to have it reflect any kind of reality - well, that's harder.

Semantically speaking, when forecasters mention "probability of precipitation", they are always wrong, aren't they? Because factored into that probability is the wiggle room that they may be wrong.

I can predict a 50% chance of rain tomorrow and be considered right, but the actual probability is fixed, unknowable by humans, and probably not 50%. And by the time it actually rains or doesn't, probability is no longer a factor. When something actually happens, the probability involved magically goes away.

One thing I find sad about weather maps is how everything just stops at the border. There's no Canada, no Mexico. These places still have probability. And in an increasingly globalized world (there's a redundancy for you!), it doesn't make sense to leave them off.

Dygytyz · 12-19-2001, 01:27 PM

Already at Alta Ski Resort (just east of Salt lake City), 236" of snow has been received in the last 28 days, and I think it snowed again last night. So, folks, if you plan on coming to SLC for the Hellympics, there will be snow and plenty of it.

The problem, however, is that snow in the valley doesn't stay white for more than a few hours. After all of the industrial and automobile pollution, oil from the bottom of cars, oil from asphalt, and dirt in general works it's way into the snow, all you have left is brown muddy slush.

It's disgusting. I think I will head out of the valley this weekend and go snowshoeing up one of the canyons and get some fresh air, sunshine, and maybe work on my chipmunk tan.

...Sean

russotto · 12-19-2001, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Undertoad

OK, these probabilities were determined yesterday, and this GIF image is too big and will take a while to load, but anyway...

IMO those probabilities are inflated by the Wishful Thinking factor on the part of the meteorologists

Whit · 12-19-2001, 04:18 PM

     Oh sure, squash my hopes that a white x-mass will give me an excuse not to visit my family for weekend. Just go ahead and destroy my last hope. Thanks alot.

Undertoad · 12-19-2001, 04:41 PM

Wait a sec - there's no place on that map where the chance is marked as 0%. Even the desert is still marked as "<5%" So just tell the folks that the weather service said there's a "chance of snow", and you'll be accurate and honest. Problem solved!

Also, I realize now that they did include Canada and Mexico. It's just that they're all white - indicating, according to their own legend, that the probability of white xmas is over 90%.

Whit · 12-19-2001, 05:05 PM

     Nah, that would be a very near a lie. I'm to honest for that. Oh well, at least I know they'll hate me being there as much as I do. Gotta love the dysfunctional family gatherings. I have a new niece I'd like to see anyway.

Joe · 12-19-2001, 05:36 PM

I like the banding effect you can see over the great plains. There it would appear the probability depends mainly on latitude, as opposed to the west where it depends on latitude also but to a much greater degree on elevation.

jaguar · 12-19-2001, 08:59 PM

just a general thing - can people please remove the IMG tag from messages they quote......3 copies of the same image rapes my poor little 56k conenction.....

Undertoad · 12-19-2001, 09:06 PM

Not really dude. Once the first one arrives, the second one oughta come from your cache of the first one, and so forth.

If you don't see all the imgs show up at the same time - if your modem is still flashing after the first one is up - check your cache settings.

Or buy some more memory now, while it's cheap as hell.

Bitman · 12-19-2001, 09:09 PM

One thing I haven't heard (so I'm lazy) -- WHY is there no snow? Global warming? Sunspots?

And for russotto and the rest of you, the master rule for quoting is this: Only quote what you're directly responding to. Quoting is especially useless here, since all the posts are on the same page, so we ALREADY know the topic.

-B

blase · 12-20-2001, 05:26 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Undertoad
One thing I find sad about weather maps is how everything just stops at the border. There's no Canada, no Mexico. These places still have probability. And in an increasingly globalized world (there's a redundancy for you!), it doesn't make sense to leave them off. [/b]

I say that sort of stuff is for the Mexican and Canadian versions of NOAA to create.

jaguar · 12-20-2001, 07:15 AM

it loads them simultaniously, mabye you're right.

ON the other hand - ram ain't cheap here anymore, prices have doubled t tripled over the last month argh!
Although i've got 512 in here...

12-20-2001, 09:22 AM

512 is for little girls with Leenux. Try 768 or 1024 with Windows XP.

:P

Griff · 12-20-2001, 02:09 PM

We've picked up about an inch of snow here in NEPA over the last three hours.

russotto · 12-20-2001, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bitman

And for russotto and the rest of you, the master rule for quoting is this: Only quote what you're directly responding to. Quoting is especially useless here, since all the posts are on the same page, so we ALREADY know the topic.

-B

Hey bitman, trying to teach me nettiquette is like teaching grandma to suck eggs.

12-19-2001, 12:56 PM	#1
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	12/19: White Xmas probability OK, these probabilities were determined yesterday, and this GIF image is too big and will take a while to load, but anyway... For all the weather maps that we see, I don't recall ever having seen this particular one: probability of a white Xmas, a week out. As time goes by, the ability of meteorologists to accurately predict this sort of thing will improve. They've probably been able to make a mpa like this, but to have it reflect any kind of reality - well, that's harder. Semantically speaking, when forecasters mention "probability of precipitation", they are always wrong, aren't they? Because factored into that probability is the wiggle room that they may be wrong. I can predict a 50% chance of rain tomorrow and be considered right, but the actual probability is fixed, unknowable by humans, and probably not 50%. And by the time it actually rains or doesn't, probability is no longer a factor. When something actually happens, the probability involved magically goes away. One thing I find sad about weather maps is how everything just stops at the border. There's no Canada, no Mexico. These places still have probability. And in an increasingly globalized world (there's a redundancy for you!), it doesn't make sense to leave them off.

12-19-2001, 04:18 PM	#4
Whit Umm ... yeah. Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Arkansas, USA Posts: 949	Oh sure, squash my hopes that a white x-mass will give me an excuse not to visit my family for weekend. Just go ahead and destroy my last hope. Thanks alot. __________________ A friend will help you move. A true friend will help you move a body.

12-19-2001, 05:05 PM	#6
Whit Umm ... yeah. Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Arkansas, USA Posts: 949	Nah, that would be a very near a lie. I'm to honest for that. Oh well, at least I know they'll hate me being there as much as I do. Gotta love the dysfunctional family gatherings. I have a new niece I'd like to see anyway. __________________ A friend will help you move. A true friend will help you move a body.

12-19-2001, 05:36 PM	#7
Joe Master of the Domain Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: AZ Posts: 221	neato I like the banding effect you can see over the great plains. There it would appear the probability depends mainly on latitude, as opposed to the west where it depends on latitude also but to a much greater degree on elevation.

12-19-2001, 08:59 PM	#8
jaguar whig Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 5,075	just a general thing - can people please remove the IMG tag from messages they quote......3 copies of the same image rapes my poor little 56k conenction..... __________________ Good friends, good books and a sleepy conscience: this is the ideal life. - Twain

12-19-2001, 01:27 PM	#2
Dygytyz Writer of Writings Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Salt Lake City, UT Posts: 14	Already at Alta Ski Resort (just east of Salt lake City), 236" of snow has been received in the last 28 days, and I think it snowed again last night. So, folks, if you plan on coming to SLC for the Hellympics, there will be snow and plenty of it. The problem, however, is that snow in the valley doesn't stay white for more than a few hours. After all of the industrial and automobile pollution, oil from the bottom of cars, oil from asphalt, and dirt in general works it's way into the snow, all you have left is brown muddy slush. It's disgusting. I think I will head out of the valley this weekend and go snowshoeing up one of the canyons and get some fresh air, sunshine, and maybe work on my chipmunk tan. ...Sean

12-19-2001, 04:41 PM	#5
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	Wait a sec - there's no place on that map where the chance is marked as 0%. Even the desert is still marked as "<5%" So just tell the folks that the weather service said there's a "chance of snow", and you'll be accurate and honest. Problem solved! Also, I realize now that they did include Canada and Mexico. It's just that they're all white - indicating, according to their own legend, that the probability of white xmas is over 90%.

12-19-2001, 09:06 PM	#9
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	Not really dude. Once the first one arrives, the second one oughta come from your cache of the first one, and so forth. If you don't see all the imgs show up at the same time - if your modem is still flashing after the first one is up - check your cache settings. Or buy some more memory now, while it's cheap as hell.

12-19-2001, 09:09 PM	#10
Bitman cellar smellar Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: californy, baby! Posts: 403	One thing I haven't heard (so I'm lazy) -- WHY is there no snow? Global warming? Sunspots? And for russotto and the rest of you, the master rule for quoting is this: Only quote what you're directly responding to. Quoting is especially useless here, since all the posts are on the same page, so we ALREADY know the topic. -B

12-20-2001, 07:15 AM	#12
jaguar whig Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 5,075	it loads them simultaniously, mabye you're right. ON the other hand - ram ain't cheap here anymore, prices have doubled t tripled over the last month argh! Although i've got 512 in here... __________________ Good friends, good books and a sleepy conscience: this is the ideal life. - Twain

12-20-2001, 09:22 AM	#13
dave Guest Posts: n/a	512 is for little girls with Leenux. Try 768 or 1024 with Windows XP. :P

12-20-2001, 02:09 PM	#14
Griff still says videotape Join Date: Feb 2001 Posts: 26,813	Its snowing! We've picked up about an inch of snow here in NEPA over the last three hours.

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