Pakistan

[Lamplighter]

While the military operations continue in Afghanistan,
the border regions with Pakistan have become a major issue.
The US does not formally admit to military actions inside Pakistan,
but is widely believed to exist.

Here are two news articles from the Voice of America and the The Wall Street Journal,
I believe describe the frustration of the situation.

VOA
US Demands More Progress by Pakistan in Afghan War

This week, President Obama released a progress report on the Afghan war, now in its tenth year.
The five-page summary of the Afghanistan and Pakistan Annual Review
says "there are notable operational gains."

For example, the president welcomed major Pakistani offensives in the tribal areas.
But he said progress has not come fast enough.
<snip>
Interior Minister Rehman Malik dismissed criticism of his country.
"If you see the statistics in terms of the casualties and injuries,
it is Pakistan which has suffered the most in the world.
We have done a lot. We are suffering in terms of our economy and obviously
it is affecting our common man in the country."

A new survey by the Washington Post and ABC News found that
sixty percent of Americans now think the war is not worth fighting.

WSJ
CIA Station Chief, His Cover Blown, Departs Pakistan

WASHINGTON—The Central Intelligence Agency pulled its top spy out of Pakistan,
citing threats to his life after a lawsuit revealed his name and accused him of helping to orchestrate
the agency's campaign of drone missile strikes in the country.

Officials said the agency is looking into the possibility that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency, the ISI,
may have had a role in blowing the CIA station chief's cover, a sign of tensions in relations.

U.S. officials say ties between the CIA and ISI have expanded in recent years,
but tensions remain, particularly over U.S. assertions that elements of the Pakistani spy agency
still provide support to the Taliban and some of their allies.

[TheMercenary]

Sounds very similar to Vietnam when we were working over in Laos and Cambodia disrupting their rat lines.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Interior Minister Rehman Malik dismissed criticism of his country.
"If you see the statistics in terms of the casualties and injuries,
it is Pakistan which has suffered the most in the world.
We have done a lot. We are suffering in terms of our economy and obviously
it is affecting our common man in the country."

But, for a few billion more American dollars, we could pretend to try harder... maybe kill a few Shepards and call them taliban for the spreadsheets.

[tw]

We still have little idea how much ISI is supporting the Taliban. We know some of that is happening. And we know why. First Pakistan must hedge all bets. Second, no country is monolithic. For the same reason that most support for the Irish Republican Army and against the British came from America.

For the Pakistani army to win any offensive means they must have a reason to do so. Currently they do not for what should be obvious reasons.

[ZenGum]

Hee hee ... cellar search for "Pakistan" in titles reveals this: http://cellar.org/search.php?searchid=2886590

[Lamplighter]

MasterCharge has disconnected all links with Wikileaks and TheCellar

[Undertoad]

Saving search doesn't work that way I suppose

[Lamplighter]

And so it begins (or continues)... as predictable as a lunar eclipse

NY Times
U.S. Military Seeks to Expand Raids in Pakistan
By MARK MAZZETTI and DEXTER FILKINS
Published: December 20, 2010

WASHINGTON — Senior American military commanders in Afghanistan are pushing
for an expanded campaign of Special Operations ground raids across the border into Pakistan’s tribal areas,
a risky strategy reflecting the growing frustration with Pakistan’s efforts to root out militants there.

The proposal, described by American officials in Washington and Afghanistan,
would escalate military activities inside Pakistan, where the movement of American forces
has been largely prohibited because of fears of provoking a backlash.

America’s clandestine war in Pakistan has for the most part been carried out
by armed drones operated by the C.I.A.

The decision to expand American military activity in Pakistan,
which would almost certainly have to be approved by President Obama himself,
would amount to the opening of a new front in the nine-year-old war,
which has grown increasingly unpopular among Americans.

According to an Afghan political leader, one of the raids was initiated to capture
a Taliban commander working inside Pakistan.
When the Afghan troops reached the compound, they did not find the Taliban commander,
but the Pakistani militants opened fire on them, the Afghan said.

An American official disputed this account, saying that the C.I.A. militias are not sent
over the border to capture militant leaders, but merely to gather intelligence.
<snip>
Two years earlier, in September 2008, American commandos carried out a raid in Pakistan’s tribal areas
and killed several people suspected of being insurgents.
The episode led to outrage among Pakistan’s leaders — and warnings not to try again.

[TheMercenary]

Sounds like a great idea.

[Lamplighter]

What is that old Arab proverb: "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" ( for now )
Here's another one: "It is good to strike the serpent's head with your enemy's hand."
Here's another one: "For every action there's a reaction"

Our US leadership should not ignore the direction of the current military surge,
and should break up Gen. Petreus' "Not-on-my-watch" chain of command.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/29/wo...lines&emc=tha2
Insurgents Set Aside Rivalries on Afghan Border
By THOM SHANKER
Published: December 28, 2010

Rival militant organizations on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan
border have increasingly been teaming up in deadly raids,
in what military and intelligence officials say is the insurgents’ latest
attempt to regain the initiative after months of withering attacks
from American and allied forces. <snip>

In the past, these insurgent groups have been seen as sharing ideology and inspiration,
but less often plans for specific missions.<snip>

These extremist groups have begun granting one another safe passage
through their areas of control in Afghanistan and Pakistan,
sharing new recruits and coordinating their propaganda responses
to American and allied actions on the ground, officials said.

American commanders recently have been seeking even more latitude to operate freely
along the porous border, including inside Pakistan, and have consistently warned that
whatever gains they have made in the past few months are fragile.
<snip>
Increased cooperation among insurgent factions also is being reported inside Pakistan,
where many of the extremist organizations are based or where their leaders have found a haven.

Commanders also warn of another response to the increase of American troop levels
in Afghanistan: larger numbers of insurgent foot soldiers are expected to be ordered
to remain in Afghanistan this winter to fight on, rather than retreat to havens in Pakistan
to await the spring thaw and a return to combat.

[TheMercenary]

I say we decrease the troop levels and significantly increase the frequency of drone strikes guided by smaller groups of special forces who go into Pakistan and id the targets.

[Lamplighter]

This event seems important and illustrative to me as to what the US is facing in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

We continue to hear news of US interactions with the Pakistani government leaders,
but it's the religious leaders behind the scenes who are truly running the show.
In my mind, military actions in Pakistan should be based on it being a religious, not a political, war.

NY Times
Assassination Deepens Divide in Pakistan
By CARLOTTA GALL
Published: January 5, 2011

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The emotional funeral of the assassinated governor of Punjab
and the cheering of his killer in court Wednesday highlighted the intensifying struggle between
secular and religious forces in Pakistan that has grown nastier than ever in the country’s history.
<snip>
Moderate religious leaders refused to condemn the assassination, and some
hard-line religious leaders appeared obliquely to condone the attack.

Certainly the assassination has thrown the government off balance while the religious right,
as the conservative and religious parties are generally described,
remains unabashed in its open loathing of Mr. Taseer and his opposition to Pakistan’s
strict blasphemy laws, for which, apparently, he was killed.

Government ministers and party officials indicated that they were dropping the campaign
to change the blasphemy laws that Mr. Taseer had championed.
<snip>
No senior official would be drawn to comment on the religious extremist
aspect of the killing at the funeral.
Those who did comment, indicated a shift in the government position,
by suggesting the killing was a political murder and a conspiracy,
rather than a religiously motivated attack.

[ZenGum]

That killing is a great tragedy. He was that rare and precious thing, a brave outspoken moderate.

Shortly before this, the Government of Pakistan lost it's majority when a coalition partner split from them and joined the opposition. Parliament has yet to return, but if the govt cannot cobble together a new coalition, Pakistan could see either legislative deadlock or a no confidence motion, leading to the fall of the government and an election. Lord knows who would win that just now, probably no majority but various political and religious groups in rivalry and coalition. The other possibility is government paralysis leading to a military take-over. You know, the same military that provided the bodyguard mentioned above.

Take your pick. Me no like.

[Lamplighter]

This article surprised me because just a few years ago these young attorneys
seemed to be a stabilizing force in the Pakistani government.

The tone of the article reminds me of the "student demonstrations" in Japan in the 60's
when younger generations of professionals took over the universities, and prevented
older members from even entering their offices or classrooms.

Japanese student protest in the late 60s
as in America, were largely fueled by opposition to the Vietnam war.
Because of the security treaty between Japan and America,
and because of the many US military bases on Japan, the Japanese students
felt that Japan bore some responsibility for the Vietnam War.

NYTimes
Pakistan Faces a Divide of Age on Muslim Law
By CARLOTTA GALL
Published: January 10, 2011

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Cheering crowds have gathered in recent days to support the assassin
who riddled the governor of Punjab with 26 bullets and to praise his attack
— carried out in the name of the Prophet Muhammad — as an act of heroism.
To the surprise of many, chief among them have been Pakistan’s young lawyers,
once seen as a force for democracy.

It may seem a stark turnabout for a group that just a few years ago
looked like the vanguard of a democracy movement.
They waged months of protests in 2007 and 2008 to challenge Pakistan’s
military dictator after he unlawfully removed the chief justice.

They are often described as the Zia generation:
Pakistanis who have come of age since the 1980s, when the military dictator,
Gen. Mohammad Zia ul-Haq, began to promote Islam in public education
and to use it as a political tool to unify this young and insecure nation.

In their deep religious conviction, and in their energy and commitment
to the cause of the blasphemy laws, they are miles apart from the
older generation of lawyers and law enforcement officials above them.

“I felt this is a different society,” said one former law enforcement official
when he saw the lawyers celebrating Mr. Qadri.

“There is a disconnect in society.”

“The silence of the armed forces is ominous,” Mr. Sethi added.

“Unless the government does something serious and sustained,” the official warned,
“we are on a very dangerous trajectory.”

[TheMercenary]

The Threat of Civil Unrest in Pakistan and the Davis Case

On Feb. 13, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) issued a statement demanding that the government of Pakistan execute U.S. government contractor Raymond Davis or turn him over to the TTP for judgment. Davis, a contract security officer for the CIA, has been in Pakistani custody since a Jan. 27 incident in which he shot two men who reportedly pointed a pistol at him in an apparent robbery attempt.

Pakistani officials have corroborated Davis’ version of events and, according to their preliminary report, Davis appears to have acted in self-defense. From a tactical perspective, the incident appears to have been (in tactical security parlance) a “good shoot,” but the matter has been taken out of the tactical realm and has become mired in transnational politics and Pakistani public sentiment. Whether the shooting was justified or not, Davis has now become a pawn in a larger game being played out between the United States and Pakistan.

When one considers the way similar periods of tension between the Pakistanis and Americans have unfolded in the past, it is not unreasonable to conclude that as this current period plays out, it could have larger consequences for Davis and for American diplomatic facilities and commercial interests in Pakistan. Unless the Pakistani government is willing and able to defuse the situation, the case could indeed provoke violent protests against the United States, and U.S. citizens and businesses in Pakistan should be prepared for this backlash.

Read more:
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110...d9e579ab94944b