Nuclear Iran is now the world's #1 problem

Originally Posted by Ibram

I'm sorry, tw, but I gotta say it; his name is not "George Jr." He's not George H. W. Bush Junior, he's George W. Bush. I'm sorry, but that was just bugging me. I get a little OCD over things like that sometimes.

Nope he's Bubba Dubya and does not deserve any more respect than that.

[tw]

Originally Posted by kitsune

I think Russia was offering to enrich the uranium for Iran so that it could be used for power generation. That way, the world would know for sure that the product Iran was getting could not be used for weapons.

Originally Posted by skysidhe

The U.S. was suppose to be buying all that from Russia.'INSTEAD' but NOOO nobody would listen to Gore.

Details to these stories go far beyond what is implied here.

First, uranium for a nuclear power station is sufficiently enriched to make a bomb. Even so called 'waste' can be bomb grade material. Yucca Mountain not being operational means potentially weapons grade 'waste' is sitting in pools next to all American nuclear power plants.

Current nuclear power plants are so inefficient as to use less than 5% of energy in that fuel. But worse, such plants required highly enriched uranium (HEU). There was an ongoing program to convert nuclear power plants all over the world to use LEU - less enriched uranium. Most of these unconverted power plants are in the old USSR. However, when George Jr began undermining relations with Russia, the program to perform these conversions halted.

HEU sufficient for nuclear power plants can make a Hiroshima bomb. Furthermore, it can be further enriched to be better bomb grade material. Can HEU fuel be made difficult to further enrich? I am not sure. Can further enriching be made detectable? If uranium enrichment is performed in Russia, then details such as amounts and other 'detectable' features can be known and used. One reason why uranium enrichment in Russia is desirable: makes further enrichment or diverting of uranium to bombs difficult to hide.

Return same principles used by Kennedy to avoid world wide nuclear destruction. But what does he see? What is he being told? What is his perspective?

One of Russia's best neighbors has been Iran. Indeed, Iran was little threat to Russia or other Iranian neighbors. What does Russia fear most - and for good reason? Pakistan. Pakistan had been one of if not the most destabilizing force in that region. Iran, on the other hand, has been very cooperative and very stabilizing to that region. Russia most appreciates that. Russia's one fear is that the entire region - especially due to American allies Israel and Pakistan - has become so unstable that all powers - even Turkey - need nuclear weapons.

Where are all those high explosives that disappeared from Iraq (because US forces did not guard them); explosive perfect for making bombs? Where are all those machine tools necessary for manufacturing bombs that completely dissappeared from an industrial complex while US forces moved on to Baghdad? These facilities were tagged and known to UN inspectors - and yet the US did not have sufficient forces to protect them? So where did all that material go? At least some metals from those facilities were discovered in a dump in the Netherlands. Where did all this bomb making material disappear to while not guarded by invading American forces? Unanswered questions that would make Russia nervous.

Best that Russia can do is keep accounting of what Iran is doing - ie process that fuel in Russia and build the Iranian nuclear reactor. Russia's proposals may have been some of the most stabilizing especially given that the United States has so destabilized the region using pre-emption, offering uranium to India without any strings, and not condemning Pakistan for proliferating nuclear technology.

Don't forget China's position. Pakistan (and India) both make China nervous. China also does not appreciate these instabilities created by US actions. It left me wondering why the President of China made that visit to the White House even without honors such as a black tie dinner. I suspect the Chinese leader needed to gauge George Jr because China is getting nervous about south central Asia, American trade, a dollar that is too high combined (while Americans instead demand Chinese currency to increase) and a few other hardening problems. From the perspective of this discussion, China also worries about instability created by United States actions including uranium to India without signing the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and without other restrictions such as inspections of their fast breeder project.

Both Russia and China need stability in South Asia where nuclear proliferation will only get worse given current political positions. Russia is doing what it can especially since Russia has no reason to trust US intentions. Any trust Russia has with the US was quashed by George Jr which is why Russia would limit any future nuclear cooperation with the United States.

If Russia builds Iranian reactors, would they be LEU type? Maybe. Just another way to stabilize the region. But without many of the above details, no one can make any assumptions as to Russia's (or China's) intents. Start by asking what their perspective is. The perspective in both Russia and China should be obvious. America is creating instability everywhere from Turkey to India; from the Indian Ocean to the K'stan nations (where American assets recently were thrown out of another country).

I cannot be sure of what Russia's nor China's intents are. But once a perspective is international, then their actions both imply stability in a region that appears to be getting ripe for nuclear war!

Nuclear war! a concept so adverse that explanation points are necessary. Both China and Russia appreciate that danger. Question is whether their actions might or even can avert such war!

[Ibby]

I really say that the China/Taiwan problem is what we need to be watching out for. If things across the strait go to hell, we're all fucked. And I don't just mean those of us in Taiwan.

China invades Taiwan. Taiwan calls on America. America declares war on China. North Korea may or may not declare war on America... Etc, etc, etc. World War 3.

And I'm sure that someone is going to get itchy button finger.

[9th Engineer]

I really don't think there's a good way to make sure Iran doesn't have the ability to clandistinely make nuclear weapons. The question I would really like an answer to is whether or not the rest of the world is in agreement over what the consequences would be if they ever supplied the weapons for or launched a nuclear attack on another country. Would we revoke the Iranian's right to self-governence for the next 50 years? Or would there be alot of mucking around and warnings?

[tw]

Originally Posted by Ibram

I really say that the China/Taiwan problem is what we need to be watching out for.

That's only one of so many potential problems. You know about Sprately Islands?

As was demonstrated by a silly spy plane incident in Spring 2001, both sides had too many extremists inciting war. China's Zemin (the outgoing president) was working hard to keep his extremists in line. His efforts were little reported in the US. Making that hard for him were Senior White House officials even calling for retaliatory action; from opposing the 2008 Olympics and trade embargos to outright military actions. Powell finally stepped up and demanded all White House people shut up. It also empowered Zemin.

These little things can easily escalate because extremist minorities on both sides see enemies everywhere. What would happen if China's new leader was a George Jr type with a pre-emption agenda? The statistical possibilities are massive.

Too many - a minority - on both sides see 'them and us'; 'black and white'. One must recognize that China also has their Joseph McCarthy types. They also have Cheney's who viewed the entire spy plane incident as aggression against the United States. Currently, the 'powers that be' in China are working for cooperation. It would explain Hu's visit without a black tie dinner and corresponding honors. The Taiwan issue is widely touted and carefully studied. Instead worry more about other minor issues, not well understood, that could make two friendly nations into enemies.

Remember that Vietnam asked to be made a protectorate of the United States. But somehow socialism was spun into communism - and we eventually ended up in a war against a nation that loved and admired the United States. How much? The Declaration of Independence for Vietnam was a duplication of America's. But some in America instead saw enemies everywhere. It can happen in any nation.

[JayMcGee]

nah, do it the Bush way..... bring Democracy to Iran, via the B52.....