Election Polls and Prognosticating

[classicman]

I'll kick it off with this one

Here's a quote from said link:

Obama is seen as the most electable Democratic candidate. Eighty-seven percent (87%) believe he would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Clinton and 75% think Edwards would have a chance. Fifty-one percent (51%) of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Obama would be Very Likely to win. Just 38% have such confidence in Clinton.

[piercehawkeye45]

Yes, it seems that a lot of people on all sides are just anti-Clinton.

[classicman]

Fox News host Bill O'Reilly got into a confrontation with an Obama aide after O'Reilly started screaming at him as he tried to get Barack Obama's attention following a rally here. O'Reilly eventually did chat briefly with Obama and asked him to be a guest on his show.

The incident was triggered when O'Reilly--with a Fox News crew shooting--was screaming at Obama National Trip Director Marvin Nicholson "Move" so he could get Obama's attention, according to several eyewitnesses. "O'Reilly was yelling at him, yelling at his face," a photographer shooting the scene said.

O'Reilly grabbed Nicholson's arm and shoved him, another eyewitness said. Nicholson, who is 6'8, said O'Reilly called him "low class."

"He grabbed me with both his hands here," Nicholson said, gesturing to his left arm and O'Reilly "started shoving me." Nicholson said, " He was pretty upset. He was yelling at me."

Secret Service agents who were nearby flanked O 'Reilly after he pushed Nicholson. They told O'Reilly he needed to calm down and get behind the fence-like barricade that contained the press.
Obama had his back turned at this point and did not see any of this.

O'Reilly yelled "sir" at Obama and Obama walked over, not aware of what happened and told him he had an overflow crowd to visit. According to the time code from a photographer shooting the two, Obama and O'Reilly talked near 11:45 a.m. eastern time.

He just came right around the barricade. They shook hands and Mr. O’Reilly said he thought Sen. Obama was great and that he loved him and loved to have him on the show and said he would think about coming on after the primaries.

What an asshole.

[classicman]

Romney Wins Wyoming Caucuses

CASPER, Wyo. (AP) - Mitt Romney captured his first win of the Republican presidential race on Saturday, prevailing in Wyoming caucuses for a much-needed boost to his candidacy three days before the New Hampshire primary.

The former Massachusetts governor won eight delegates, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson got two and California Rep. Duncan Hunter won one, meaning no other candidate could beat Romney. Caucuses were still being held to decide all 12 delegates at stake.

The victory was a welcome development for Romney, coming two days after his loss to Mike Huckabee in the Iowa caucuses and three days before the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire. Those two states have attracted most of the political attention. Wyoming had scheduled its GOP county conventions earlier to attract candidates to the state but had only modest results.

Romney visited Wyoming in August and November and three of his five sons campaigned in the state. One son, Josh Romney, owns a ranch in southwest Wyoming.

"Number one, he campaigned here," delegate Leigh Vosler of Cheyenne said of Romney. "I think that helped while some other candidates ignored us. But also he's the right person for the job."

Hunter, Thompson and Ron Paul all stopped by the state - visits they probably wouldn't have made except for this year's early conventions - and candidates have sent Wyoming's GOP voters a flood of campaign mail. Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, did not visit Wyoming and drew little support. Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani also did not visit and received little support.

"I think we're encouraged that the voters in Wyoming value that my dad had spent time here," Josh Romney said.

The traditional leadoff nomination contests in Iowa and New Hampshire have dominated the attention of both candidates and the national media in recent months, and no candidates had visited Wyoming in the four weeks leading up to the caucuses. Hunter was the last to visit the state on Dec. 4.

Tom Sansonetti, the county convention organizer, maintained Saturday that moving the state's caucuses ahead was the right thing to do.

"The ultimate goal is not how many times we appear on Katie Couric," Sansonetti said. "The ultimate goal was to have attention paid to rank-and-file Republicans by national candidates."

In addition, he said more Wyoming Republicans have become involved in the process.

Wyoming Republicans also paid a price for jumping ahead. The Republican National Committee has slashed half of Wyoming's 28 national convention delegates. National party leaders similarly penalized Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire and South Carolina for moving up the dates of their nomination contests.

RNC rules require the punishment for states that hold their nominating contests earlier than Feb. 5. Iowa, which held caucuses on Thursday, will not be penalized because, technically, the caucuses are not binding on convention delegates. Nevada, which plans to hold its caucuses on Jan. 19, will not be penalized for the same reason.

Besides the 12 delegates chosen at Saturday's county conventions in Wyoming, two delegates to be chosen at a statewide convention in May will also be sent to the national convention in Minneapolis.

I'm embarrassed to say that I didn't even know this was happening. I thought NH was next.

[busterb]

I'm embarrased to say that I didn't even know this was happening.

As you go though life you'll find that's true about alot of things.

[classicman]

lol - thanks Buster - perhaps I should have edited that comment to -
I'm embarrassed to say that was another thing I didn't know was happening.

[piercehawkeye45]

Classic-

Democrat Primary Dates:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democra...rimaries,_2008

Republican Primary Dates:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republi...rimaries,_2008

[wolf]

Based on the polls vs. the actual results in New Hampshire, one could suggest that Hillary's people tampered with the voting machines ...

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by wolf

Based on the polls vs. the actual results in New Hampshire, one could suggest that Hillary's people tampered with the voting machines ...

Never! that lying power hungry bitch would never do such a thing just to win!


Would she???

[Happy Monkey]

There are no touchscreens in New Hampshire, so if she did, it's at least possible to find out.

[piercehawkeye45]

I think it was more that the polls were skewed than the election was bought. There was supposedly a very large margin of error in the polls so that was probably it.

[ZenGum]

The reports I saw on TV about this said that in NH a very large number of people made up their minds at the very last minute - that morning, or even in the actual polling place.
When people are that undecided, there is a tendency to opt for the familiar which at least feels safe.

Edit: Changed "poling place" to "polling place". Then thought about changing it back, all things considered...

[glatt]

An article I read said that 18% were still undecided the day of the vote. That's a huge number of uncertainty.

[Clodfobble]

The thing that irritated me was all the pundits talking about how it was a "critical win" for Hillary--Democratic delegates in NH are awarded proportionally, not winner-take-all. They each got 9. She didn't win crap. If their voting percentages were reversed, everyone would be calling it a "huge loss," but she'd still have the same nine delegates.

[classicman]

Thanks Clod - glass you noticed that too. The media should have reported it more as a tie than a "win". That would have been much more accurate.