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02-28-2017, 12:15 PM | #1 |
Snowflake
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Dystopia
Posts: 13,136
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if News not 'fake' -why was Trump loss predicted?
Of course, the real question is, "can we trust polls?" but... because mainstream media continuously seeks to build a narrative based on polling data, an erosion of our confidence in polling data equals a valid reason to doubt the veracity of what they're telling us is happening in the world.
Step one: major polling aggregates predict Clinton victory as about 90-100% certain. (With the exception of Nate Silver's 538 which gave Clinton a 71.4% chance.) Step two: Trump wins, everyone is shocked, and the world changes overnight--with no warning! Step three: "..fool me once, shame on, shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again.” Today the media is telling me that support for Obamacare is higher than ever. According to polls. :::internally remembering that one time when all the polls were wrong::: Trump saying 'fake news' is ridiculous, on a factual level, but it works on a gut level because the news betrayed us.
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****************** There's a level of facility that everyone needs to accomplish, and from there it's a matter of deciding for yourself how important ultra-facility is to your expression. ... I found, like Joseph Campbell said, if you just follow whatever gives you a little joy or excitement or awe, then you're on the right track. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Terry Bozzio Last edited by Flint; 02-28-2017 at 12:23 PM. |
02-28-2017, 12:16 PM | #2 | |
We have to go back, Kate!
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Yorkshire
Posts: 25,964
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Surely we all understand though, that there is a vast gulf between predicting what will happen and reporting what did happen?
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02-28-2017, 12:22 PM | #3 |
Snowflake
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Dystopia
Posts: 13,136
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Sure, according to nerds who think they know everything.
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****************** There's a level of facility that everyone needs to accomplish, and from there it's a matter of deciding for yourself how important ultra-facility is to your expression. ... I found, like Joseph Campbell said, if you just follow whatever gives you a little joy or excitement or awe, then you're on the right track. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Terry Bozzio |
02-28-2017, 01:19 PM | #4 | |
To shreds, you say?
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: in the house and on the street-how many, many feet we meet!
Posts: 18,449
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Quote:
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The internet is a hateful stew of vomit you can never take completely seriously. - Her Fobs |
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02-28-2017, 06:16 PM | #5 |
Deplorable
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 767
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Polls are not the problem.
People who report polls are the problem. Oversampling the favored group in nearly every Clinton/Trump poll caused the disconnect. They wanted SO MUCH for Clinton to win that they made it happen, kinda like the liberal atheist version of prayer. Now, Trump Derangement Syndrome has taken hold of those same people who believed the polls, much to my amusement. Last edited by Pamela; 02-28-2017 at 06:16 PM. Reason: fixed typo |
02-28-2017, 06:36 PM | #6 | |
I think this line's mostly filler.
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: DC
Posts: 13,575
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The pre-aggragation polls are more checkable, as their percentage can be compared to counted votes. You could probably judge the aggregator's results somewhat, by comparing the actual difference between each poll and relevant vote count with the assumed error range and bias applied to it in the aggregator's formula, and see how much that affects the results. The polls got the nationwide stats pretty accurately, but not some key swing states. Though, if the difference was within their margin of error, there's not much they could have done about that. Of course, none of that matters on the gut level.
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02-28-2017, 08:09 PM | #7 | |
Goon Squad Leader
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Seattle
Posts: 27,063
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02-28-2017, 10:49 PM | #8 |
The future is unwritten
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 71,105
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To the majority of voters, YES.
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The descent of man ~ Nixon, Friedman, Reagan, Trump. |
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