Somebody knows somth'in bout birth'n hurricanes

[Kitsune]

Oh man is this shit getting old! I'd run outside to curse at the skies and ocean for all the destruction, but I know not to make that mistake ever again...

[plthijinx]

and the sucky part is NBN and I are where the red dot is....

[plthijinx]

here is a GOES satellite image of the gulf.....

[Kitsune]

Plthijinx, how far inland are you?

[plthijinx]

roughly 50 miles and 83 feet msl.

[Undertoad]

Well if anything happens to you, you can be sure that your local, state, and national officials have it covered.

[plthijinx]

yeah, that gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. i've been dealing with the sheriff's department since last month on another matter. they can't figure out whether to pick their head or scratch their ass.

[plthijinx]

and to make matters worse for the folks on the coastal and bay areas, the storm surge is coming at high tide.

[tw]

When a hurricane gets down to 920 mb, well that is a low pressure system that would bottom out most barometers. However tonight's statement from the National Hurricane Center (22 September 2005 0300 zulu) has this little gem:

RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE OF RITA AROUND 21/2309Z RECORDED A PRESSURE OF 899 MB WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 32 KT. ANYTHING BELOW 10 KT IS USUALLY CONSIDERED A VALID PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THUMB RULE IS TO DECREASE THE PRESSURE 1 MB FOR EVERY 10 KT ABOVE THAT WIND SPEED. IN THIS CASE... RITA'S CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 897 MB...MAKING IT THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

Using Rush Limbaugh logic, global warming has clearly increased the intensity of hurricanes. But Rush Limbaugh logic also has another commandment from his god. Pervert facts only for a political agenda. And you thought Rush was playing dead due to criticism from The Cellar.

[Kitsune]

They're <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=135&tstamp=200509">predicting some potentially massive flooding from Rita far inland</a>.

The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area.

[plthijinx]

bouy data:

Conditions at 42001 as of
(9:50 am CDT)
1450 GMT on 09/22/2005:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 50.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 68.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 34.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 14 sec
Average Period (APD): 10.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): E ( 89 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.31 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.7 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 84.4 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[tw]

Originally Posted by plthijinx

bouy data: ...
Conditions at 42001 as of
(9:50 am CDT)
1450 GMT on 09/22/2005:
Wave Height (WVHT): 34.1 ft

34 foot waves are not that high for a storm of this magnitude. Last year, an Atlantic hurricane created 40+ foot waves for the data buoy off of Frying Pan Shoals in SC ... before the buoy failed. I watched it as it was failing.

Meanwhile buoy 42003 was capsized by Katrina. These deep water buoys are typically archored in 3300 meters. A picture that gives some idea as to how large this only family of buoys (including 42001) really are:

[richlevy]

Originally Posted by Kitsune

If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area.

Don't worry, I'm sure GWB has another $40 billion on hand to fix Texas. And I'm sure that he'll want to triple his tax cuts to rev up the economy to help pay for the cost. After all, the more we spend, the more we save

[tw]

This is Forest Oil's High Island HI-334B rig a few hundred miles off of Galveston that is right in Rita's path.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/Stations/fgbl1.jpg

Nearby is a data buoy (from Texas A&M) that failed even from distant Katrina. These small data buoys fail often in serious storms.


This is one of NOAA's more robust data buoys - a 3 meter discus anchored in about 1100 meters. Although maybe 100 miles east and sligtly south of that rig (and adjacent to a Shell oil rig), it was liberated by Katrina, remained operational, and was recovered. No weather data available.


NOAA buoy 40019, another 3 meter discus, is an only operational data buoy that can provide wave height. It is maybe 100 miles south of Galveston, currently sees barometric pressure drop to about 29.4 inches (just under 1000 millibars), and only reports 19 foot waves.

NOAA buoy 42001 cited above by plthijinx, a 12 meter discus, was also liberated from its 3000 meter anchor by Katrina. It also remained operational and was directly struck when Rita was reporting extremely low pressures. Waves at that point were up to 39 feet. However during Rita's visit, something rather interesting occurred at 42001. Ocean temperature dropped 5 degrees F to about 81 degrees. Ocean has since gone down to a cool 79 degrees. This would explain Rita's sudden decrease in strength.

Also on the northern edge of Rita and just below Western and Central LA are three Shell oil rigs in about 900 meters of water: Auger GB426 and

and Brutus GC158

Mars MC807 is similar, is directly south of New Orleans and would have suffered more from Katrina. Surprisingly, little information on the integrity of these rigs after Katrina and previous hurricanes is apparently available; as if it were a state secret.

These are but four of many hundreds, maybe a few thousand rigs that dot the Gulf. It demonstrates how much of us remains out there AND how difficult what has happened is learned.

[xoxoxoBruce]

NOAA site has a video showing the ocean fom Africa to Mexico with the colors changing (blue, yellow,orange, red) as the water temperature changes over the summer. Once in a while a blue spot will move across the ocean showing the water temperature drop as a hurricane moves over it. Pretty cool.