Somebody knows somth'in bout birth'n hurricanes

[Kitsune]

A couple people have mentioned something about a hurricane in passing, but otherwise... not much.

Well, kind of.

Its too early to tell where Wilma wants to go and so everything here is currently business as usual. There are no boards up, yet, and I even have work scheduled on Sunday. I'm sure it might be somewhat different to the south of me, but even they have to continue on with their lives. If everything stopped everytime a hurricane set her gaze on the penninsula, we'd have absolutely no progress at all every June through November. I've simply made sure I have enough gasoline to get out of town, but I've not even packed up anything, yet. With a projected landfall not until Sunday and now the change to BAMM and GFDL that projects Wilma might not even hit FL, leaving now is far too early and preparing in any major way is questionable these days, anyways. As my friends in New Orleans said after their experience (they did end up losing their apartment and a lot of their belongings due to a partial roof failure), "Grab cash and get out. Your friends, your family, and your insurance company will take care of much more than water purification tablets and canned food ever would." Riding these things out just isn't as fun as people make it out to be, especially when hurricanes like Charley with a projected landfall of a category one come to shore suddenly with a different path and 145+mph winds.

Come Friday, midday, I'll make my decision if she continues towards the west coast. Friday night or Saturday morning, I'll be out of here if she proves a threat. I-75, SR301, and US441 will be parkinglots. Nothing new, there.

It is important to note that unless she gets much larger, this will be a very small storm. In fact, if Wilma were to hit thirty miles from me and come inland right now, we'd get a slightly breezy day with some normal summer-like rainfall. When Charley hit Punta Gorda, my area of Tampa (the original target and in a total state of panic at the time!) saw a light mist of rain and barely a breeze. Wilma's eye is only 4mi in diameter and the hurricane force winds only extend out ~15mi. This is going to change, of course, but so is the intensity and windspeed as she moves into cooler waters North of the Keys.

...if she does so. This is very much a wait and see game in FL and, as usual, it is a nerve-racking experience. I tend to get sick to my stomach watching the news, checking the tracks, and waiting. In the previous two years, I've tried to learn to not think about it until about 48 hours before landfall. With the way the media is treating these storms, that proves really tough, anymore. But until they get close, there is not much to do and there is absolutely nothing that can be done through worrying. In an odd twist, if I had no outside media notification at all, I would have found the windy storms we got in 2004 to be curious and annoying because of the power outtages, but not much else. Aside from cause me to turn up a bottle of rum and run outside to beg the sky for mercy, the concern shown more than two days out did no good at all.

[Kitsune]

The magic number, by the way, is sixty miles. All predicted tracks twenty-four hours out in the past ten years have never been off by more than sixty miles. If anything appears to get close to that threshold, its time to get out.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Looks like naples.

[Kitsune]

A beautiful, yet ominous sight, this morning around 8am: I rushed to the deck on hearing an amazing roar and saw scores of fighters thundering overhead, headed North. I'm not sure what base they're from, but the military even knows it is time to get out of South Florida.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Kitsune

A beautiful, yet ominous sight, ... scores of fighters thundering overhead, headed North. ... even knows it is time to get out of South Florida.

Do you feel like a 100,000 left in New Orleans - abandoned by the government?

What we do know - George Jr did not have to read a PDB or make a decision before those planes could be evacuated. But to do same for you requires George Jr to make a decision. Ominous.

[Kitsune]

Originally Posted by tw

Do you feel like a 100,000 left in New Orleans - abandoned by the government?

Uh... wha? I don't know what you're getting at.

Originally Posted by tw

What we do know - George Jr did not have to read a PDB or make a decision before those planes could be evacuated. But to do same for you requires George Jr to make a decision. Ominous.

I dunno, I figured the bases probably made the decision to fly those planes out. It really is in their best interest.

I've always felt that I could evacuate whenever I wanted to -- I sure as hell aren't waiting for the pres to give the word since it isn't even his responsibility. If you're talking about the issued voluntary and mandatory evac orders by the gov, I'd like to remind everyone that the evac zones and evac statements that are based on storm category have nothing to do with survival. All of them are based on tidal flooding and the ability of emergency services to access the area. The evac orders have nothing to do with your roof coming off, your home collapsing, etc. If a category five comes inland, I will not be told to leave...but I'm not sticking around for the storm!

I've never quite felt left behind during any of the hurricanes, in fact. Actually, much to the contrary -- the Florida Shrub at least fakes that he knows what he's doing in these situations. Maybe because we've had a lot more hurricanes in recent years, but Jeb gives a reasonable presentation on television and actually plays it fairly professional. "Emergency Services will not come for you during or for sometime after the hurricane. Prepare now, not moments before." The tax holiday issued at the beginning of this year for hurricane supplies, while not the best of ideas, at least got a lot of us thinking about our plans and got some of us to head to the store early for plywood, generators, etc.

Florida isn't New Orleans, but Andrew/Homestead years ago did prove it has the potential to be. I just don't allow myself to be placed in the position that would cause me to have to endure it.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Kitsune

I dunno, I figured the bases probably made the decision to fly those planes out. It really is in their best interest.

Exactly. Those squadrons did not need 'glorious leader' to make a decision. Apparently, you too need not feel like 100,000 in New Orleans - dependent on a president and his personal respresentative making a decision. So the answer is simply, "No".

No, you don't feel like 100,000 residents in New Orleans who could not get out - as a president, so in denial, did a San Diego fund raiser while a killer hurricane beat down on those 100,000. Same man who said, "No body expected the levees to be breached." No, you are not at the mercy of George Jr.

Actually you have little to worry about. Cheney is now back from vacation. The real president is now making decisions. But just imagine how ominious it would be if you had to depend on George Jr to make a decision - as even the military was bugging out. Ominous.

BTW, no hurricane has balls enough to go after the Cellar. God saves the Cellar. Ominous.

[tw]

Wilma will proabably past west of this data buoy. However on Thursday night, data buoy 42056 may measure some of the largest waves. Currently they are at 33 feet. 40 feet would be very unusual. And then, will this buoy survive:
Yucatan Basin Data Buoy

[Elspode]

Looks like it not only survived, but the worst has passed?

[BigV]

Originally Posted by tw

--snip--
BTW, no hurricane has balls enough to go after the Cellar. God saves the Cellar. Ominous.

Not ominous, tw. cellars are at peril from floods, hurricanes menace the parts that protrude above the ground.

Have you forgotten the lessons of New Orleans so soon?

[xoxoxoBruce]

Wilma in the Cayman Islands.

[richlevy]

This just in.

System Failures Seen in Levees
The massive failures of levees in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina, which flooded the city and caused hundreds of deaths, resulted from flaws at almost every level in the conception, design, construction and maintenance of the region's flood-control system, according to the preliminary findings of investigators.

The Army Corps of Engineers, local levee boards in Louisiana and other agencies failed to grasp warning signs over the last decade that the levees were not as strong as expected, reflecting a cultural mind-set that did not pay enough attention to public safety, according to Robert Bea, an engineering professor at UC Berkeley who is part of a National Science Foundation investigating team.

Now I know that I am in for another TW lecture here, but it doesn't seem too improbable that a system built in the 1900's and updated as late as the 1980's might be obsolete by todays standards. The question becomes "why wasn't this addressed"?

Construction defects also may have played a role. Analysis of concrete samples from the 17th Street Canal shows that the levee fractured in ways that suggest the material was substandard.

Let me see, substandard materials in a public construction contract. Who would have guessed?

[wolf]

So wait, are you telling me that Minister Farrakhan lied to me?

[tw]

Originally Posted by richlevy

... but it doesn't seem too improbable that a system built in the 1900's and updated as late as the 1980's might be obsolete by todays standards. The question becomes "why wasn't this addressed"?

Why are so many are being taken on this ride of irrelevance? Is this controversy so that we forget the lies of George Jr - ie "Nobody expected the levees to be breached"?

Everyone expected the levees to be breached. Levees were upgraded to survive a category 3 storm. They did that just fine. They were predicted to be breached by a category 4 or 5 storm. Again, they performed as expected. Where is the controversy? Facts remain: Michael Brown's own subordinate, Bahamonde, personally e-mailed Michael Brown and numerous other FEMA managers that the levee had been breached. He even personally told Michael Brown that same thing about 7 hours later by phone. And yet facts remain - Michael Brown and FEMA were in complete denial that the levees were breached - as predicted - for almost one day. Furthermore, when Brown said the levees were breached, he also said New Orleans was not filling up like a bowl. The levee breach is about FEMA lies - not about the levee construction. Those levees perfomed exactly as pedicted. It was FEMA that was in denial - letting people die while FEMA did nothing.

Construction of those levees is an interesting engineering analysis; totally irrelevant to layman. The levees performed exactly as predicted. Don't for a minute forget why 1050+ people died in New Orleans - FEMA top management AND George Jr who was told those levees would be breached and then went to San Diego for a political fund raiser.

Don't let them confuse you with irrelevant facts. People died in New Orleans as Michael Brown and George Jr remained in denial - as demonstrated by what happened to the USS Bataan.

[xoxoxoBruce]

FEMA top management AND George Jr who was told those levees would be breached and then went to San Diego for a political fund raiser.

That sounds like a damn good idea. It's a shame he didn't tell everyone else to do the same.