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Old 03-28-2020, 08:45 AM   #61
sexobon
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The lockdowns are SOP and should've been incorporated from the beginning.

It's like saying that if another country attacks your country, half the population will be killed (without factoring in a military response).

I regard such projections as I regard the chloroquine treatment - as anecdotal.

Government's public endorsement is contraindicated when it can cause more harm than good. Look at panic stockpiling in the rear leaving shortages on the front lines.
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Old 03-28-2020, 10:32 AM   #62
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Yeah, I feel like we've already reached the part of the game where the seriousness of the thing is downplayed because some places were pretty successful implementing the social-distancing plan. Because of late recognition, NYC continues to be behind the curve, but parts of the US would appear to have a little wiggle room. A deeply religious man, Donald J Trump would like to open the country up for business on Easter. The pagans in NYC won't understand how important that is.
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Old 03-28-2020, 12:23 PM   #63
tw
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Originally Posted by Undertoad View Post
The New Scientist story also says it's new data from Europe that drives the change in the model
UTs premise is that the model was defective because an infected person would only infect 2.4 others.

The model did not say 2.4 people WILL be infected - as UT misrepresents. The model said IF the number was 2.4, then these very bad things are expected.

That number was only one input to the model - not a conclusion from the model as UT would have us believe. And as DanaC correctly noted. The model said if infections were only 2.4, then these bad things will happen. Apparently the infection rate is about 3. So things may be even worse.

The model, as reported, said nothing about death rates. Another data input projected that 4.4% of those infected will require hospitalization. Not death. Hospitalization. UT claims the model was defective because death rates in UK may only be 20,000. Hospitalization numbers and death numbers obviously are different.

If 60% must recover from this virus before it subsides, then we can expect maybe 7+ million Americans will eventually require hospitalization. Since nothing was done for supplies, then more nurses and doctors will die. How many? Depends on whether that 7 million arrive immediately. Or require hospitalization between now and November.

Longer means less nurses and doctors are infected. And less people die due to no ventilators.

Another input to the model notes about 8 ICU beds per 100,000 people exist. A number that would never be that low had the nation been led by someone who wanted to avert disaster.

Isolation and lockdown will do nothing to end this pandemic. Those only slow the spread so that medical people have time to obtain 'withheld and now limited' equipment. So that less nurses and doctors die.

Isolation and lockdown made more necessary because 85% of this problem is directly traceable to top management. A White House intentionally subverted any response for two months. As a result, lockdowns may be necessary in some places well into or after May.

Of course, he says it will all be over before Easter. He lies. He would have us do what is clearly wrong and dangerous. We all know who he is.

Lessons from Singapore, Hong Kong, and S Korea demonstrated a pandemic is less problematic when prevention was implemented sooner. Key is testing. No test kits were made or obtained in the US because the White House subverted necessary actions.

Some 3500 people were potential victims on the Grand Princess (outside San Francisco). Many days later, they could only find 45 test kits for that ship. What most prevents widespread infection are test kits and laboratories with equipment to process those kits.

Only place that could do testing in American was the CDC in Atlanta. Two months after the threat was obvious, expected, known, and spreading.

Also key are test kits that can identify an infected person in minutes. That was clearly defined as necessary in the NSC report (a Pandemic Playbook) that was disposed, mocked, and rescinded in 2018. We know by who.

On Tuesday, the president again lied on his propaganda network - Fox. Saying that his administration could not have foreseen the coronavirus pandemic. Even though the intelligence community bluntly told him - in no uncertain terms - it was coming on Jan 12.

Things that could have been done when this pandemic was obvious in January were poo-pooed. He even admits he will intentionally lie to make himself look better. And to make others feel better. 85% of all problems are directly traceable to a man that UT still praises.

Today, NYC has no more available ventilators. 16,000 are in military storage that Trump said would be distributed last week. They still have not shipped. 85% of all problems are directly traceable to who? Trump then said so many ventilators were not necessary. Apparently his staff scolded him. He denied his lie but hours later.

To further promote himself, Trump is moving his hundreds man entourage to Norfolk to sent off a hospital ship Comfort. Why expose hundreds more to infections? Well that ship could not move. Since facts were ignored on 12 Jan, then the ship was under reconstruction and unavailable. As of this afternoon, it still has not moved while ceremonies continue.

Standard SOP is a boss implementing what informed employees say. And not the boss telling the informed that they are wrong and evil. He is also not smarter than the Generals. He has a 30 second attention span. Another reason why more doctors and nurses may die.
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Old 03-28-2020, 12:31 PM   #64
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The model, as reported, said nothing about death rates
Nope. Nobody fucking knows, mate. Incredibly, he won't reveal his model.

He can just publish his code, and immediately end that argument, but he won't.
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Old 03-28-2020, 01:04 PM   #65
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Nope. Nobody fucking knows, mate. Incredibly, he won't reveal his model.
He provides facts that a scumbag president wants to deny. So you attack him rather than a lying idiot with a 30 second attention span? That scumbag even admits he lies to make himself look better. A scumbag loved by people routinely brainwashed by Fox News propaganda. That is not even an opinion. Those are facts.

Facts say a responsible person does not automatically attack all science. The least informed even denied global warming - because Fox News ordered them to. Responsible people do know. The fucking problem is that scumbag.

Covid-19 is just another example of a scumbag who only makes things worse.
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Old 03-28-2020, 01:13 PM   #66
sexobon
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He's just an Epidemiologist. If he wants people to take him seriously, he'll have to go back to school to become a Pandemiologist.
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Old 03-28-2020, 01:17 PM   #67
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So you attack him rather than a lying idiot with a 30 second attention span?
Why should I attack you?
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Old 03-28-2020, 01:22 PM   #68
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Old 03-28-2020, 01:23 PM   #69
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He's just an Epidemiologist. If he wants people to take him seriously, he'll have to go back to school to become a Pandemiologist.
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Old 03-28-2020, 04:56 PM   #70
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Why should I attack you?
You do that in an underhanded manner; constantly. You have long history of touted Fox News lies and denying well proven facts. You denied global warming. Denied Fukushima plants were in (obvious) meltdown. Denied the "Saddam clearly did not have WMDs" reality even after George Jr confirmed it publicly. Denied a Katrina disaster in New Orleans because Fox News even denied people were without food and water for days in the Superdome and Convention center (even after their own reporters told the truth). Because you believe Fox News. And even disparage honest news sources.

An honest person is openly critical of a scumbag president. Instead, you recite Fox News lies that exist only because Fox News is a Trump propaganda machine. Its purpose is to lie when necessary.

You put up the three network anchormen as three monkeys - deaf, dumb and blind. When they were telling the truth and Fox News was lying. Had you ignored Fox News - the fake news - and listened to responsible sources, then you knew the truth about global warming. Know that Trump said there were only five Covid-19 cases and he expected that number to drop to 1 next week. Said we should all fill the churches on Easter. And said old people should ignore their health to save the economy. He even said those Governors, Mayors, and medical professionals were wrong. He would ignore their pleas for help if they did not say nice things about him. They don't need all those ventilators - according to Trump. Did Fox News contradict him? Of course not.

Trump even criticized a federally-funded program, for people exposed to contaminated Flint water, $25 to enroll in support services and programs. He tweeted “this is a total disgrace." Because that is what Fox News said.

That is your responsible news source? No wonder we have been so adversarial since you promoted what was the massacre of 5000 American servicemen for no purpose. And still do not apologize for endorsing that mistake - that continues today.

Having delayed the hospital ship Comfort for another photo-Op, well it finally and just now is leaving Norfolk harbor. And should finally arrive in NYC on Monday - in two days. Two days to travel from Chesapeake Bay to NY harbor.

A president that you still approve of is that bad for every patriotic American.

Last edited by tw; 03-28-2020 at 05:01 PM.
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Old 03-28-2020, 05:36 PM   #71
sexobon
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Worst case of COVFEFE-19 I ever saw.
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Old 03-28-2020, 06:20 PM   #72
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How sad it must be to spend three decades chronicling this and still get it wrong. I mean I would like to answer your shit in kind, but that would be elder abuse.
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Old 03-28-2020, 09:28 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce View Post
All this does is drive his base away from NPR and the slim chance of jump starting critical thinking in some of the base.
Critical thinking is the very thing that elected DJT in the first place; the electorate undertook critical thinking of the political Establishment and concluded that we were come to our unsatisfactory pass *because* of the professional political class -- a class that continues to take a thrashing as the electorate rebels at the prospect of them continuing to fill the seats of power.

Trump has, critical thinkingwise, shown up the value of the political establishment -- it's not high, as la Pelosi's idea of appropriate political conduct and escaping condemnation from her own, this last week will show -- only partly owing to his being an outsider therefrom. This goes back a long ways into a real estate career -- politicians being in the main a line-item expense, and little more.

(Talk radio properly raised hell with Pelosi over that "no crisis unexploited" stunt. Really -- 1400 pages of riders, considerably greater in bulk than the original appropriations bill??)

He's made that public, and they can't fucking stand it -- and that couldn't happen to a nicer and more deserving demographic. Their vocal reluctance to bend over and take one for the free republic is blatant, and their shame. No wonder I quit voting for Donkeys so many years ago. That's the easiest way to perform critical thinking -- and it saves you from voting an antidemcratic socialist (socialism isn't democratic; never be fooled by disguise -- or you can't be a critical thinker) even inadvertently into the bargain. You've still got a couple of decent party choices -- the Republicans do not harbor socialists in their club, and the Libertarians are positively the antisocialists.
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Old 03-28-2020, 09:40 PM   #74
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Shoud tw be taken out of circulation by a moderate attack of Wuhan Coronavirus -- and recover -- it is to be hoped he will thereupon do the just as moderately heroic thing with a plasma and antibodies donation, helping to effect cures for the worse afflicted.

And when enough anecdotes of successful chloroquine and hexachloroquine treatment and cure accumulate, offlabel use or no, they pile up into something that looks a lot like data. Not completely, not rigorously -- but close enough to be useful.
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Old 03-28-2020, 10:52 PM   #75
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A message from Chatham, MA.
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