How we know what we know: utter denial in human beings

[Undertoad]

Utter denial: once in a while you get a clear example of this sort of thing, and I think it is fasinating to see.

Billy posted the web site for a project by two Brits who reenacted Mao's "Long March". Mao himself said that the length of this march was 25,000 li, or about 7800 miles. That "fact" became a truth for the Chinese people.

But when they actually studied it and walked it, it turned out to be shorter:

The best I can reckon is between 13,000 and 18,000 li, or 4,060 to 5,625 miles. To my mind, this arithmetical revisionism doesn’t belittle the Long March at all. Whichever way you cut it, 4,000 miles is still a bloody long way. But to Chinese people reared on the "25,000-li Long March", my conclusion on the distance is the worst possible heresy. I could tell a dozen tales about Red atrocities or hypocrisy, or say Mao was a buffoon who knew nothing about military strategy, and still get nothing like the horrified, disbelieving response I get when I say, "You know, the Long March wasn’t really 25,000 li."

'You must have gone the wrong way," they say, as if by turning left instead of right I somehow took a 3,000-mile shortcut.

OK, that's the setup. Here's the detail. Confronted with the actual fact right before his eyes, the fact simply can't change for one gentleman:

Ever since my marching partner, Andrew McEwen, and I published our results, we’ve been patronized and insulted by everyone from taxi drivers to Communist Party historians. The latter are the most entertaining, because of the contortions they perform to "prove" Chairman Mao’s calculation was scientifically correct.

In spring 2005, Chinese National Geography [sic] surprised me by asking if I could write an article outlining why I believed the Long March was shorter than Mao said. They also commissioned a Party expert to rebut my conclusions. This gentleman marshaled all the available evidence [not a particularly onerous task, as verifying Mao’s statements by empirical research has not been a popular activity in China since the Revolution] and demonstrated that the Long March was, er, between 16,000 and 18,000 li. He concluded his article with these immortal words: "Although we are unable to identify exactly which part of the Red Army marched 25,000 li, the above facts clearly demonstrate that the 25,000 li are an unchallengeable historical fact."

Chinese National Geography cancelled the feature.

This kind of partisan denial happens in all societies, in ourselves too, and we just can't see it. It's "the truth hole" and I hope to try to understand it.

[Undertoad]

My thinking on this is affected by an NPR piece I listened to about two years ago. There was this guy who was half black as his mother had sex with a gentleman of color. Mom however steadfastly denied it to the kid all his life. She told him that there was American Indian in their bloodline and his darkish appearance was due to that. His belief became so steadfast that even when presented with scientific evidence that showed the contrary, he refused to believe it for years and years, and lived in the denial state. That denial state is fascinating to me. Things that are not true, but are believed anyway because to not believe them is psychologically difficult.

[Rock Steady]

DENIAL: Don't Even kNow I Am Lying

[MaggieL]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

Things that are not true, but are believed anyway because to not believe them is psychologically difficult.

Cognitive dissonance is a powerful thing.

[Trilby]

Labs, especially understaffed and overpressed American labs, have been known to make HUGE mistakes. HUGE. A man was poisoned by his wife with Anti-Freeze: the testing lab made a fatal error (very usual, by the way) and misplaced a decimal point in the results. Neveryoumind that antifreeze in ANY amount should NOT be found in humans...the lab dismissed it. Years went by before the wife was prosecuted. Medical mistakes are de riguer. It is POSSIBLE to doubt results--either lab or otherwise. Thats all I mean. d'you know how many false negative pap smears go by?

[SteveDallas]

Originally Posted by Jeffrey Pfeffer and Robert Sutton, 'Hard Facts, Dangerous Half-Truths, and Total Nonsense: Profiting from Evidence-Based Management'

The third flawed and widespread basis for decisions often does the most damage because it is the most difficult to change. It happens when people are overly influenced by deeply held ideologies or beliefs--causing their organization to adopt some management practice not because it is based on sonud logic or hard facts but because managers "believe" it works, or it matches their (sometimes flawed) assumptions about what propels people and organizations to be successful.

Very interesting subject .

Let's start with getting rid of the easy reply 'what is truth anyway?' I have a lot of problems with the concept of time for example . I know that X particular event only ran on for a couple of hours , but why the hell does it take up the whole of my head then ? I know that that other X period of time ran on for years and years , but why does it only take up about one second of my brain ?

OK , now that is out of the way , it is interesting to remember that not all cultures count like we do . In many languages , once you have got past the fingers and toes , everything else is 'a lot' ( those cultures put detail elsewhere) . We can hardly say that the Chinese think in terms of 'a lot' . No one knows more about counting than they do . Mao obviously played around with figures and other people's credibility . This is not good , but then neither was Mao .

Seeing how little things actually were is part of growing up . We have all gone back to that huge tree of our childhood only to find out that it is just an ordinary old tree . That bottomless , scary cupboard turns out to be a scruffy little glory-hole . I have never been able to grow up completely though , as I still see my father as tall , brave and wonderful . Well , he IS tall , brave and wonderful .

And apparently it is not true about being able to see the Great Wall of China from outer space .

[Ridgeplate]

As a recent historical corollary, one could ask how many men were in the Million Man March? So long as history names it such, the actual number won't really matter, as it's as much a symbol as anything. In this case, the numbers aren't quite so conclusive as the Long March, but the effects of a significant number remain.

"The Boston University team figured that there were 878,587 marchers. With an estimated error margin of 25%, the number of participants could have been as high as 1,098,234 or as low as 658,940."

Info found here: http://observe.arc.nasa.gov/nasa/edu...llion_man.html

Good point , Ridgeplate . It is also a very white American point , as was Undertoad's . Both your complementary points are valid , of course . Perhaps we choose to count when it is in our interest ? And how many tears have you counted in The Trail of Tears ?

And in America , do they do what they do in France , Ridgeplate ? Whenever there is a public demonstration , the trade unions give one figure , and the police a much lower one .

(There are no more public demonstrations in the United Kingdom , by the way . Mrs Thatcher managed to kill all the trade unions , and no one dares to demonstrate against capitalism in the UK any more .)

[BlueSky_TheMan]

I experience MY truth about the world. This truth is based on my perceptions of all past experiences and knowledge. Joe has his truth, Mary has her truth, Dave has his truth, etc, etc until we encompass every person living, as well as all those that came before us. Some of us group together and agree to have an identical portion of the truth. Thus we have a mathematical group that agrees 4 + 4 = 8, we have a Christian group that agrees in salvation through Christ, we have an alcoholic group that agrees a liquid substance can control their lives,etc, etc until we encompass every group that is and has ever been. The largest group around , humans, (most humans anyway) have a truth inside us that says "I AM this truth that I perceive". So if you disagree with one of my truths you are attacking me personally as well as all my groups that I belong to. Also, if I would happen to allow myself to believe your truth that means part (if not all) of me dies.

Truth in this world is only perceptual.

Accepting a new truth = death.

Denial becomes survival

Very interesting , Bluesky .

What do you do to the people who you think are attacking you and your groups ?

[BlueSky_TheMan]

If I'm speaking in generalities (as I was in my previous post), I'll speak as most humans do:

I will kill you spiritually, emotionally, or physically to prove my truth is stronger than yours.

If I'm speaking for me personally:
I TRY to acknowledge that your attack on my truth is only an ill conceived attempt for you to protect yourself and then communicate understanding back. Notice I said try, it is a very ingrained habit in all of us to perceive these things as attacks and then attack back.

I shall have to be very careful then .

[MaggieL]

Originally Posted by Buddug

Good point , Ridgeplate . It is also a very white American point , as was Undertoad's .

Points apparently now have race and nationality...that's ever so much more interesting than just having validity. Now one can be racist or nationalist about a point without any people actually being involved. Would pointing out that "Bolshevik" was not in fact the "majority party" at the time also be a white American point? One must think so now.

I guess we'll deprecate Orwell's observations on language and politics too...perhaps not American, but certainly white. Clearly guilty of excessive occidentalism.

And here is a point that may be a white American point without the speaker even being white. A miracle!

Most people choose to put a point over when it happens to coincide with their vision of the world , MaggieL . There are loads of points all over the place . One can pick and choose .

A few people - not very many - try to see the points , and then they try to make sense of them .

I try to belong to the latter group , but I no doubt belong to the former .