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   Undertoad  Sunday Sep 16 01:22 PM

9/16: Sea level change map



Perhaps you wanted something ELSE to worry about, if the possibility of war was not enough. Here is a bit of map of the Gulf Coast that would be extremely vulnerable to sea level rise due to global warming. This area would be the most affected in the US.

Well maybe. You know that what somebody did was to get topographic maps of the US and color in the bits under 1.5 meters and then under 3.5 meters. The caveat they admit is right up front in their abstract: "In many cases, the results are as sensitive to uncertainty regarding geological processes as to the rate of sea level rise."

Yah. Also, the EPA itself - the source for this - says that they think the next century's rise in sea level will be two feet. The red area shown is about 5 feet. (Note the mix of metric and non-metric is theirs, not mine...) Most of the red area is 1.3 metres above sea level and so a rise of two feet has little effect.

They think the chance of sea level rising 1.5 meters in 60 years is 1%. *I* think if you are going to mix science and probability, you need to show your work.

For more info:
http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/pub...aps/index.html



elSicomoro  Sunday Sep 16 07:57 PM

The area around Louisiana wouldn't surprise me though...isn't New Orleans already sinking into the Mississippi?



Count Zero  Sunday Sep 16 09:02 PM

Re: 9/16: Sea level change map

Quote:
Originally posted by Undertoad

They think the chance of sea level rising 1.5 meters in 60 years is 1%. *I* think if you are going to mix science and probability, you need to show your work.

If the sea would rise 1.5 meters, there would be almost no ice left at the poles. Think about the water volume !

But regarding you comment, It's a very common thing to use statistics in science. Quantum Mechanics, for instance, is based entirely on probabilistic treatment. Experimental Physics in general rely heavily on that.

But of course, when you show statistical results without making your considerations explicit (like ALL newspapers do), then your results are completly, 100% worthless.

I think that's what you meant by your comment, and I agree with you.


dynamo  Monday Sep 17 11:55 AM

Re: Re: 9/16: Sea level change map

Quote:
Originally posted by Count Zero


If the sea would rise 1.5 meters, there would be almost no ice left at the poles. Think about the water volume !
There's plenty of water to flood the planet. Consider: the entire midwest of the US was an inland sea throughout the cretaceous (144 million to 66 million years ago). What is now North America was separated into three parts strictly because of the change in water level, and those oceans were as deep as 600 feet.

neat stuff

dynamo


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