Post Election Predictions

[Kitsune]

We've all heard the obvious: "Its going to be a close one." "There will be many errors in the count." "There will be at least one recount." Etc.

But even further down the road, one year, two years, four or more: what do you see happening (good or bad) to this country, as well as the world, depending on who gets elected?

I find it very easy to conjure up ideas based on Bush getting elected, almost none regarding Kerry.

[Trilby]

A letter-writer from Briton to a Clark County, OH resident said that if Bush is re-elected all American's had better adopt a "Canadian accent" while traveling abroad. And this letter-writer is no hack; what do YOU think? I think it's Kerry or we are doomed.

[hot_pastrami]

I think if Kerry is elected, the situation in Iraq will shortly stop getting worse. This isn't exactly the same as improving, but it's much better than the steady decline we see now. Kerry will be able to make decisions which are not motivated by pride, and from an informed perspective which is not tainted by the Bush administration.

I believe that with Kerry in the driver's seat, we'll see progress towards stability in Iraq sooner than with Bush, though on the order of months or years, not weeks. He may also win us back some trust in the world... a little in the short term, and a lot over a couple of years.

With Bush in the driver's seat, even if he puts the draft into effect, the situation in Iraq will probably deteriorate to eventually require a full withdrawal. This will leave the area a complete mess, and effectively destroy what few meager shreds of credibility and support the US has left. After such a catastrophe, any attempt the US makes to police the world will be met with suspicion and hostility, whether the actions are justified or not. Bush completely squandered the trust the US earned over the decades, as well as the post-9/11 goodwill.

[Undertoad]

I remember one wonk predicting what would happen by 1987 based on the 1984 election. He felt that if Reagan got elected, the FBI would be opening the US Mail, while if Mondale was elected, the government wouldn't be competent enough to deliver it.

[Kitsune]

I will be glad when the election is over with, because this country might finally get back to normal and we'll all go back to disliking one another for the important reasons: arguing over who was booted from last night's crappy reality TV show.

Anyways...

Bush gets elected: a return to the religious right. I forsee a new dawn for Christianity all across this great land, and a dive further into the depths of a nationalism that will border on racism. The current boogeyman will be changed from islamic extremists to the seemingly-perverted guy down the street. Faith will be called into government and the educational system, causing our schools to become more of a mockery than they already are and the courts to become a terrifying place. "Family Values" will be the order of the day and the FCC will begin to investigate whether it has jurisdiction over cable/sat TV and satellite radio. Censorship will soar to protect the children and more books will be torn from your local library than have ever been pulled from in the past. The airlines and national security will continue to become less safe while illusionary tactics will continue to keep the public quiet. Less terror alerts will be issued or they will be forgotten completely unless Bush wants more laws passed concerning the removal of civil liberties. The sale of cheap plastic flags will finally plateau, then begin to decline.

Iraq: regardless of who gets elected, this will continue to get worse, cost more money, and continue its spiral into the ground. With Bush, I'd say a draft is a much higher, if not a definite, possibility than with Kerry.

Cuba: Castro dies. If Bush is in office, expect extreme amounts of CIA wackiness to take place so as to push the island nation in the favor of the US.

Economy: If Bush gets elected, stocks will plummet the very next day just as they did four years ago. The promise of not raising taxes will fall through (read my lips) and it will be blamed on the cost of the war. Workers on H1B Visas will be eliminated almost entirely, causing more work to flood offshore and a surplus of used Toyota Camrys and one bedroom apartments the likes of which we have never seen before.

Four years from now: If Bush is elected in 2004, expect a fairly normal election to take place in 2008 and a Democrat to win. If Kerry is elected, I would expect a turbulent election in 2008 with plenty of division in the nation, much more arguing, etc.

[Cyber Wolf]

Originally Posted by Kitsune

Four years from now: If Bush is elected in 2004, expect a fairly normal election to take place in 2008 and a Democrat to win. If Kerry is elected, I would expect a turbulent election in 2008 with plenty of division in the nation, much more arguing, etc.

That's a good point. I'm basically part of the Anyone-But-Bush camp and that's most likely going to be Kerry but that does pose a problem. If Bush is reelected, then we'll be done with him in 4 years and things can move on past him (unless he weasels some other crony from his and Cheney's sandbox into a favorable election position...). However if Kerry is elected, Bush still has a presidental term to have a go at and if things go as badly or worse than Bush managed, he'll come back in 2008 saying "See? You all elected Kerry and see what happened? Elect me again and I'll fix it!" I know it'll be all I can do to keep my blood pressure from going through the roof that year if that should happen.

[glatt]

Originally Posted by Kitsune

Bush gets elected: a return to the religious right. . .

You forgot to mention abortion. If Bush is elected, he will appoint pro-life justices to the Supreme Court. Roe v Wade will be overturned, and anyone wanting an abortion will have to travel to Canada to get one. There will be a sharp rise in teen pregnancies and single moms. The welfare rolls will increase dramatically, and in about 15 years, so will crime.

The irony is that all the newly born kids will grow up to be Democrats, and the Republicans will lose their hold on power in one generation.

[Catwoman]

Originally Posted by Kitsune

I find it very easy to conjure up ideas based on Bush getting elected, almost none regarding Kerry.

And that's probably why Bush will win. People stick to what they know. Safer that way.

[Kitsune]

The irony is that all the newly born kids will grow up to be Democrats, and the Republicans will lose their hold on power in one generation.

Okay, Glatt, you have to explain this one.

[glatt]

Originally Posted by Kitsune

The irony is that all the newly born kids will grow up to be Democrats, and the Republicans will lose their hold on power in one generation.

Okay, Glatt, you have to explain this one.

OK. Most abortions are performed on women who are not ready to have kids yet. Not all, but most. (I'm aware that older women get abortions too.) When those women have children, that will cause them to become poor single moms. As a demographic group, poor single moms vote for Democrats. Children are almost always indoctrinated into the politics of the parents, so those kids will grow up to be Democrats as well. There are about 1.5 million abortions performed each year, so that means about 1.5 million new Democrats will be born each year. In a generation, that should have a significant impact on national politics.

[Kitsune]

I'll... um, I'll accept that. I think.

From a registered Republican in my office: "The Republican Party will cease to exist in twenty years." His reasoning? The growing population of Latinos in this country, who he said always vote democrat and have a population that will soon become the majority in the US.

[Undertoad]

The parties slowly change to match the changes of the country.

[tw]

from The Economist of 9 Oct 2004
This series of briefs seeks to redress the balance by looking at the presidency issue by issue. The record has been mixed. On foreign policy, perhaps the most important issue, Mr Bush has transformed American policy in response to the terrorist attacks and (less noticed) has established good relations with the great powers of Russia, China, India, and Japan. But the costs to the country's moral suasion in Europe and the Middle East has been steep. All America's principle allies would vote for Mr Kerry by a landslide.

.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Kitsune

The current boogeyman will be changed from islamic extremists to the seemingly-perverted guy down the street.

I know people who have been victims of this new 'we fear everyone' mentality.

from The Economist of 8 Oct 2004
In May, Brandon Mayfiled, a 37 year old Oregon lawyer, was arrested and thrown in jail when federal agents incorrectly matched his fingerprint with one found on a bag of detonators in a station near Madrid after the March train bombings. Earlier, FBI agents had sneaked into his home and taken "Spanish documents" (namely his son's Spanish homework), along with copies of the Koran (Mr Mayfield is a convert to Islam). Two weeks later, most of it spent in solitary cofinement, all charges were dropped and he was released with an apology for the FBI.

This is how the "war on terror" is sometimes fought. Since the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001, the Bush administration has brought in a slew of law-enforcement and surveillance powers that critics fear is turning America into an Orwellian nightmare. The worriers are thinking of the all-seeing Big Brother of "1984", though so far the chaos of "Animal Farm" may be closer to it. ...

In September 2002 the government launched a "call-in" registration progmramme, requiring visiting men aged 16-45 from 25 predominantly Arab of Muslim countries to be photographed, fingerprinted, and questioned under oath. Access to lawyers was denied. More than 80,000 complied. Most were found to be ordinary law-abiding people. Again, not a single terrorist was unmasked. But a lot of resentment was caused.

Expected when we immediately see evil everywhere. After the election, many new surprises including a massive new budget for the Iraq war (to pay the bills from this past year and many years hence) will be unveiled. Expect many questionable provisions of the Patriot Act that must expire in 2005 to be made permanent. I expect more of my friends (most of whom are American citizens) to be held again in jail without a lawyer. In one case, seven cop cars surrounded his car in Valley Forge only because a dark skinned man (an Indian) was using his cell phone in a suspicious manner. He was using the calculator. Fortunately he had his two year old son with him. Otherwise he believes he was about to be 'detained' until his son started crying.

Promoting fear and 'good verses evil' could get Hitler elected. Why not a president? Screw the Oregon lawyer. He should have known better than to leave his son's homework sitting around for an FBI that is 120 days behind in foreign language translations. Thank you George Jr for saving us money by not funding the FBI. He had a Koran. He must have been evil.

For me, and for many other disabled and elderly Americans, Bush's re-election will mean devastation. The Bush administration's cuts in housing assistance are already having a profound negative impact, and Bush proposes even deeper cuts over the next 4 years. This country will see many more people on the streets and the number of people living below the poverty line will increase significantly. I will end up back on the banks of the San Miguel River with no hope for anything better. I won't accept such a life.