AlQuida / al-Qaeda, in Iraq.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Shhhhhhhhhh, don't tell tw.
I know tw keeps telling us they aren't there but General Barry R McCaffrey (Ret), disagrees in his After Action Report on Mike Yon's site.

It's very good reading but the font is tiny and it's pretty long. I copied it to a msWord Doc in arial-12pt and it's 8 pages.

The first reference was; 3. The Problem

In total, enemy insurgents or armed sectarian militias (SCIRI, JAM, Pesh Merga, AQI, 1920’s Brigade, et. al.) probably exceed 100,000 armed fighters. These non-government armed bands are in some ways more capable of independent operations than the regularly constituted ISF. They do not depend fundamentally on foreign support for their operations. Most of their money, explosives, and leadership are generated inside Iraq. The majority of the Iraqi population (Sunni and Shia) support armed attacks on American forces. Although we have arrested 120,000 insurgents (hold 27,000) and killed some huge number of enemy combatants (perhaps 20,000+) — the armed insurgents, militias, and Al Qaeda in Iraq without fail apparently re-generate both leadership cadres and foot soldiers. Their sophistication, numbers, and lethality go up— not down— as they incur these staggering battle losses.

The next reference; 4. THE CURRENT SITUATION:

4th: There is a real and growing ground swell of Sunni tribal opposition to the Al Qaeda-in-Iraq terror formations. (90% Iraqi.) This counter-Al Qaeda movement in Anbar Province was fostered by brilliant US Marine leadership. There is now unmistakable evidence that the western Sunni tribes are increasingly convinced that they blundered badly by sitting out the political process. They are also keenly aware of the fragility of the continued US military presence that stands between them and a vengeful and overwhelming Shia-Kurdish majority class— which was brutally treated by Saddam and his cruel regime. There is now active combat between Sunni tribal leadership and AQI terrorists. Of even greater importance, the Sunni tribes are now supplying their young men as drafts for the Iraqi Police. (IP). AQI is responding with customary and sickening violence. Police are beheaded in groups; families of IP officers are murdered (or in one case a 12 year old boy was run over multiple times by a truck in front of his family)—all designed to intimidate the tribes. It is not working. The Takfiri AQI extremism of: no music, no photos, no videos, no cutting of beards, etc does not sit well with the moderate form of Islam practiced among the western tribes. This is a crucial struggle and it is going our way—for now.

In that same section;

6th: Reconciliation of the internal warring elements in Iraq will be how we eventually win the war in Iraq—if it happens. There is a very sophisticated and carefully integrated approach by the Iraqi government and Coalition actors to defuse the armed violence from internal enemies and bring people into the political process. There are encouraging signs that the peace and participation message does resonate with many of the more moderate Sunni and Shia warring factions. Of course, there is no intent to negotiate with either the extreme Bathist elements or the Al Qaeda in Iraq terrorists. The UK three star Deputy MNF-I Commander – (LTG Graeme Lamb) has done a superb job with this process.

So, by golly, I do believe there's some AlQuiden going on in Iraq.
But really, if you've got a couple minutes, do yourself a favor and find out what's happening in Iraq, the surrounding countries, our military, Iraq's politics and our politics. You won't find a better way to know the big picture in what appears to me to be an honest assessment by a credible source.

[TheMercenary]

Looks great. I will read it. I read a number of Mil blogs. Have you read Blackfive? that is one of the best IMHO.

http://www.blackfive.net/

[Undertoad]

It's sobering to read. He describes extremely grim conditions in the country in general and in the readiness of the Iraqi army.

He backs up Yon's perception that Gen'l Petraeus is very smart, having capably proven himself in another sector of Iraq, and is the right guy for the job right now.

He is non-partisan, saying that the D time pressures are useful to underline the situation for Maliki.

He thinks that the new ROE are effective and is optimistic about the surge.

In the last Yon piece, it was revealed that embedded reporters cannot talk about the changes in rules of engagement, by law. Since McCaffrey isn't an embedded reporter, he lets loose a little more than the reporters do, about the new approaches and what kinds of results they are seeing.

[tw]

The piece says we must be in Iraq for another five years. The piece says we have serious supply problems because so much of the American military is stuck deep in Iraq for too long. A five year Persian Gulf supply line that remains exposed because even the Brits will leave. (Brits are leaving because Iraq is now as good as we can make it). Well this nation does not have money for more C-17s because we have spent so much shipping so much to Iraq. The piece says we need to double the number of C-17s so we can continue massive military exploits all over the world (ie Iraq). (C-17 assembly line is planning to close soon).

The piece confuses strategic concepts with tactical. Lt Gen Odiero's surge is a temporary and tactical objective - similar to stabilizing Saigon - as the numerous insurgencies let the surge flail in Baghdad while they rebuild and train. Insurgencies don't confront organized militaries. Surges won every tactical victory in Vietnam. Lessons well taught on Hamburger Hill. Therefore, just like in Nam, as tactical victories pile up, the strategic objective is lost to an insurgency that only gets stronger. A simple concept that 'big dic' tactical thinkers never grasp.

McCaffrey's piece is wonderful news if taking a 'big dic' attitude - tactical victory means strategic victory. A cheerleader's report to officers who otherwise would be so despondent. It reads almost exactly like Westmoreland's reports from Nam and articles rewrote by Henry Luce in Washington and NY. Clearly we also won that war by simply staying five years and only reporting good news.

McCaffrey forgets to mention that Americans on Iraq's street only create more enemies. And yet only Americans can do the street work. Although Iraqi locals are happy to have Americans in their neighborhood now (and never leave), their contempt for Americans in Iraq makes insurgencies grow faster. Americans can never stay in any neighborhood long enough to keep the local happy. Obviously.

Just another example of a 'good news' tactical perspective while ignoring the 'bad news' strategic objective. If we keep major units only in that neighborhood, then no insurgents kill and kidnap - tactical solution. But Americans are in Iraq and rarely in that neighborhood. Civil war therefore exists; all blamed on Americans - a strategic defeat.

Iraqi army and police basically have pickup trucks for military vehicles - no different than technicals in Somalia. After 100 trained Battalions, Iraq still has near zero army. These 'forgotten lies' also continue. Police are part of the insurgency - what is sometimes officially called al Qaeda (a stolen name since bin Laden has zero relation to it). What created that massacre in Talafar? The Police went door to door killing Iraqis. Don't worry. We will graduate more police.

McCaffrey's summary reads like a cheerleader's report - too many good things. No mention of so many bad things we all know are ongoing. Therefore Iraq is even worse. If you desperately need some propaganda to raise emotional spirits, to ignore reality, to also believe in the Wizard of Oz, then this is your report. To uplift troop commander's sinking hearts, this is your report. It is quite good. And if you believe the US military can continue with these destruction rates for five more years, then this is your report.

How does xoxoxoBruce explain, for example, so much American military destruction that even a Division Ready Brigade has been lost:
Bush's Shrinking Safety Zone
Massive destruction of US military readiness - irrelevant? Don't worry, be happy.

Five more years in Iraq. Five more years ... and we will see light at the end of the tunnel. That is also in the piece. Finally. We've been waiting for 40 years now. Vietnam deja vue. Just give us another five years and we can win this thing ... is that what xoxoxoBruce believes?

Conditions have become that bad that commanders need McCaffrey's 'rally the troops' assessment. And blame it on Al Qaeda since we need a boogey man to blame. Good for troop moral.

Call me in five years when you see the light.

[TheMercenary]

Friday, March 23, 2007
NEWS FROM THE FRONT - Interview with a Warrior

SFC Thomas Nichols is also a fellow blogger and posts at JACK ARMY as well as guest blogging: VA JOE.

He gives his views on his current mission, the Army and even Walter Reed Army Medical Center. Here’s what he had to say:

In which province are you currently deployed (if you can tell)?
I am deployed in the Saladin Province. The area that my unit operates in is relatively calm but there is still a threat. There are people that are taking advantage of the situation for personal gain, but the Iraqi Police in this area are stepping up to that challenge more and more every day.
(NOTE: Salah ad-Din includes Tikrit and Samarra - two formerly very anti-American areas.)

How do the Iraqi civilians view/treat you and your soldiers?
We are generally well received by the civilians in this area. Coalition Forces do not have as large a presence in this area as in some other places in Iraq, but the locals are used to seeing us and treat us well. I think that my commander has a lot to do with that, though. He has worked hard to develop friendships in this area with local leaders and it shows. He treats everyone with respect and dignity and even when we can’t help, he still listens to their problems and offers alternate solutions. A lot of times, just showing that he cares is enough to make the Iraqi people we work with feel better. Of course, he attempts to guide them to solutions to their problems and if it is something that we can do, like provide security during important events, he is quick to offer help. In our time here, we have seen the people grow more and more friendly toward us. When we started waving at passing motorists and pedestrians as we drove by in our up-armored humvee’s, people looked confused and unsure what we were doing. Now, we wave and smile and get waves and smiles in return.
Now, this doesn’t mean that everything is always roses and sunshine. There was one patrol to a small town in our sector and some teenage boys threw rocks at one of our trucks. They were in a schoolyard behind a wall, but there was no doubt where the rocks came from. Nobody was hurt, but we had a stern conversation with the school principal and haven’t had any problems since. It did not seem that there was an “anti-American” thing going on, just some boys goading each other into doing something stupid. I remember doing the same sorts of things when I was that age.

Have you heard or sensed any shift in Iraqis against insurgents (i.e. the Anbar Salvation Council is allegedly fed up with Al-Qaeda and are now battling them in places like Habbaniyah)?
Yes, there is a definite shift in how Iraqis view insurgents. Iraqis are turning in insurgents, calling when they see IEDs and even chasing away bad guys in some cases. Is it enough? No, not yet, but it is improvement and hopefully the momentum is shifting enough to make it a permanent thing. Only time will tell.

How long have you been there; how long until redeployment?
With just over seven months completed, we redeploy back to Schofield barracks in about five months or so. I haven’t heard a specific date yet. I don’t focus on that, though, because it tends to lead to complacency and that is not good. A year is a long time, not nearly enough to finish the work of fighting an insurgency, but for a family it is very long.
(How many of you are willing to spend a full year away from your family?)

Have you had any contact with journalists during your tour? (I read Bill Roggio virtually everyday since he seems to bring the best information without editorials.)
A couple by email. In fact, I just responded to an email interview from a journalist from a magazine called the Global Journalist . There have been a few here in person, but I didn’t conduct personal interviews with any of them.

As a followup -- Have you had any DVs for which you had to put on the requisite “dog and pony” show? Choose one of the following to describe the visit:
• I felt he/she brought a great deal to raise morale to my troops
• He/She asked a few questions, but really didn’t seem all that interested
• He/She just came for a “Photo Op”
We have had a few Distinguished Visitors, but I don’t feel we put on a dog and pony show for them. The highest ranking visitor was a major general… Did we take special care in presenting a professional appearance? Sure, but not the typical garrison “spit and polish” show. My commander and I have the philosophy that we will not change the standard for visitors, meaning that if it is the right thing to do because the brigade commander is visiting, then it is the right thing to do all the time. We really don’t spend much time preparing for distinguished visitors.
(NOTE: Sounds like great leadership philosophy. I expected nothing less from our great military professionals.)

What gives you the greatest satisfaction with your current mission? What gives you the least?
The best part is seeing the Iraqis take charge of situations in the area. From IED discoveries to crowd control to providing security for pilgrims moving through the area, the Iraqi Army and Police are performing more and more of those tasks with less involvement from Coalition Forces. We are able to mentor and guide more than having to take charge and lead them by the nose. The least satisfaction comes on days when we can’t do what we planned, for example, our medic planned and coordinated for a three-day combat lifesaver course for the Iraqi Army troops. The IA medics would train the IA Soldiers under his supervision. He coordinated this training several weeks prior and even confirmed the training the day prior. At the appointed time, nobody showed for the training, not even the medics. When the IA battalion staff was asked what was going on, they simply forgot. Frustrating. Not the end of the world, I know, but a distinct challenge in maintaining motivation and mission focus. Is it merely a cultural difference? I’m not sure, but I am disappointed by it.

If you were General Schoomaker for one day, what changes would you make?
Wow. That is a tough question. I probably wouldn’t make any changes. I don’t have the lifetime of experiences and training that he has and I haven’t had months of briefings and intel dumps that he has received. It wouldn’t make sense for me to make changes without the information that he has.”
(Besides getting rid of Velcro on Army uniforms) the Army is a good organization with good people. There are teams of Soldiers with the job of making recommendations for changes to the top leaders. Those are the guys that should be answering this question.”

Here’s something I would do if I were king for a day: I’d make myself the official blogger for MNCI. I’d travel around the theater of operations and interview troops and observe first hand all the things we are doing and report on them with a military man’s eye for detail. Would it all be good news? Not if I could blog the way I want to. I want to tell the story of Iraq as it is, not as I want it to be. It would mostly be good news, though, because that is what is mostly going on: infrastructure projects, new schools and medical clinics, humanitarian programs, security operations, etc. If I could go home for a couple of weeks every four months or so, this would be my dream job and I’d like to think I’d do a great service to the Army and MNCI. Press releases are great and all, but that’s old school. Blogging is the new media and we (the military) need to get our message out in the blogosphere as well as the traditional media venues.

When you hear those who haven’t served and do not seem particularly informed comment on military operations, what is your first reaction?
I’m pleased that they are even paying attention to what is going on. I feel like too many Americans don’t even know what is going on in Iraq, Afghanistan or elsewhere that they don’t bother to comment because they don’t know. Are there commentators that are misinformed or underinformed? Sure, but at least they are trying to participate in the discussion about what is going on. I do think that many people speak before listening, though. What I mean is that they take one news article or commentary and run with it, forming opinions and making political statements without gathering more information and opinions. I wish more folks would read more and listen more to the folks that are fighting this war.
Among the services the Army has always been known to focus less on facilities and more on warfighting systems. Were you surprised at the civilian media's focus on Walter Reed AMC?
No, I wasn’t surprised in the least. The sudden focus was obviously politically motivated. There is a segment of our country that is engaged in an all-out war against the current administration and the current commander-in-chief in particular. I don’t know why exactly, but it is destructive and demotivating, to say the least. I commented on the crux of your question on my blog, the fact that facilities have always gotten shortshrifted in the Army while equipment and training has been top-notch for the most part. The good news is that despite the less-than-sincere motives, the troops and veterans will benefit from this “uproar”. While I believe that the same media and politicians who’ve been in and out of Walter Reed many times and suddenly find the conditions appalling are hypocrites, the increased scrutiny will hopefully spur Congress to spend the money to make our military and veterans hospitals the quality facilities that they should be. I’m not talking about turning them into hospital versions of five-star hotels, just clean and functional facilities that any American would be proud of.
http://anti-contrarian.blogspot.com/...-front_23.html

[DanaC]

I doubt anybody would deny that groups who consider themselves to be part of the Al Quaeda movement are now operating in Iraq. Doesn't in any way mean they were there before we invaded.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by DanaC

I doubt anybody would deny that groups who consider themselves to be part of the Al Quaeda movement are now operating in Iraq. Doesn't in any way mean they were there before we invaded.

Agreed. The invasion gave them a greater purpose and fomented the movement.

[warch]

Indeed. Wish we could have planned a bit better for that via Afghanistan.

[tw]

Originally Posted by DanaC

I doubt anybody would deny that groups who consider themselves to be part of the Al Quaeda movement are now operating in Iraq.

Just because you put a Ford logo on any truck means it is a Ford? Al Qaeda was this tiny little movement - just an other dandelion on the lawn. Suddenly all the dandelions now want to call themselves Al Qaeda. And it work in America where the message is more important than reality.

bin Laden has as many troops in Iraq as you have wings.

Real question is whether bin Laden will sue for trademark infringement.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by tw

...bin Laden has as many troops in Iraq as you have wings.

Ok, since none of us have wings are you trying to say that there are no factions in Iraq that consider themselves to be alingned with al-Qaeda in Iraq?

[xoxoxoBruce]

That's what he's been saying, but in truth every Islamic anti-American group in the world sent organizers in to Iraq, to recruit, train and organize Iraqi insurgents. The reasons are 1- To smite the western devil. 2- to try and get a little, or lot, of influence in the composition of Iraq.

The C-17 line closing is so, like, ya know, yesterday's news. They've gotten more orders since then.

Pickups with machine guns work great against everything....except an army, or even police, with armor.

It will be interesting to see how the General does with his predictions... if the link goes away... I have a copy.
tw's predictions are also archived

[DanaC]

Just because you put a Ford logo on any truck means it is a Ford? Al Qaeda was this tiny little movement - just an other dandelion on the lawn. Suddenly all the dandelions now want to call themselves Al Qaeda. And it work in America where the message is more important than reality.

tw, I was very careful in my wording. I have serious doubts as to whether 'al-qaeda' still exists in the form it once did. In fact I think 'al-qaeda' was a bit of a misnoma. It's like International Communism; most of the groups weren't actually connected to the rest in any meaningful way, they merely shared some objectives. What I said, was that there are groups currently in Iraq who consider themselves a part of the AQ movement.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by DanaC

tw, I was very careful in my wording. I have serious doubts as to whether 'al-qaeda' still exists in the form it once did. In fact I think 'al-qaeda' was a bit of a misnoma. It's like International Communism; most of the groups weren't actually connected to the rest in any meaningful way, they merely shared some objectives. What I said, was that there are groups currently in Iraq who consider themselves a part of the AQ movement.

There is no doubt that they have gotten what they wanted to some part. The western world is against them and they are trying hard to make it a war between religions, that would be the ultimate goal of the extremists IMHO. The problem is that in the long run they are further isolating and alienating what little gains have been made by Muslims who have integrated successfully in Western society.

[Happy Monkey]

That's not a problem, from their POV.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey

That's not a problem, from their POV.

You're right, but it could be yours one day.