Er' She Blows

tw · 07-17-2011, 06:02 PM

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey
Irene Jose Katia Lee Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe
Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
are tropical storms for this year.

Arlene already happened in late June. Made landfall in southern TX and Northern Mexico where rain was welcome due to drought.

A second tropical depression just formed north of Bermuda. And not expected to be serious. More interesting is the difference from last year. So far storm tracks have been more northerly. Last year, all storms remained south.

Unusually warm air during the spring resulted in a most violent tornado season. But the Gulf and Caribbean have not been unusually warm. Only about 28 degrees. Meaning that any early season hurricanes are unlikely to be violent.

Predictions are for 16 names storms. 9 to become hurricanes. 5 to be severe. And a 72% chance of at least one category 3 or higher hurricane striking the US mainland. This is traditionally only 52%. Predictions from the past few years have been extraordinarily accurate.

The eastern Pacific already had an above normal two hurricanes in June. One was a category four. As usual, it headed for San Diego only to peter out off Baja.

Clodfobble · 07-17-2011, 11:18 PM

Admit it: danger aside, you really like it when a hurricane makes landfall, don't you?

GunMaster357 · 07-19-2011, 09:33 PM

Like a woman, it comes hot and wet and get away taking the car and house.

tw · 07-20-2011, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GunMaster357

Like a woman, it comes hot and wet and get away taking the car and house.

Don't worry about Bret. He's staying safely away. Cindy is next. Like a woman ...

SamIam · 07-20-2011, 11:10 AM

I'm waiting for Ophelia. Never knew the weather service was so literary.

tw · 07-20-2011, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SamIam

Never knew the weather service was so literary.

A west coast hurricane may be named Xina. Such hurricanes do not come from the Amazon.

SamIam · 07-20-2011, 05:49 PM

Ophelia came from Denmark, as I recall. This global warming thing is really getting out of hand when hurricanes start to form in the North Sea.

tw · 07-22-2011, 08:02 AM

Cindy popped up unexpectedly in the North Atlantic due east of Nova Scotia. Destination: UK.

Bret is chasing her.

tw · 07-31-2011, 09:19 PM

Fairly likely that tropical storm Emily will strike the US somewhere in the Gulf in the next seven days. The Gulf of Mexico is not so warm this year (except some isolated spots on the western FL coast). If the Gulf does not heat up quickly, Emily is unlikely to be a serious hurricane. And may be quite welcome to a coastline suffering a drought.

tw · 08-22-2011, 10:09 AM

Its been a boring 'cane season this year since so many storms took a beeline for the UK or disintegrated over the Yucatan Peninsula. Even Emily took a right turn as it was getting interesting.

The Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic are cooler this year. Most of the warm water remains on both sides of Florida. Irene hit Puerto Rico and intensified into the first hurricane. Its projected track is across the warmest waters that only exist off both sides of Florida. That makes it a storm worth watching since its track on either side of FL can make is a serious problem starting Friday. Especially if it tracks west of FL.

The Cellar might appreciate that rain next week to wash mud off of UT's car.

Sundae · 08-22-2011, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

Admit it: danger aside, you really like it when a hurricane makes landfall, don't you?

Um, sorry, but YES.

Of course I deplore any loss of life or injury and the damage to livelihoods.
But I live in a protected Vale almost like fairy-story-land.
The closest I ever got to extreme weather growing up was reading A High Wind In Jamaica.

(Yes, the bit with the crocodile made me melt a little too).

Griff · 08-24-2011, 08:01 PM

Yikes!
It's not every day you see a hurricane forecast cone pointed into the Northeast.

In fact, the concern among meteorologists is high. National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read: "We are very concerned with what's going to happen in New England. The benchmark is the 1938 hurricane. I am very concerned with what will happen there."

The potential is real for the strongest hurricane hit on the Northeast in at least a couple decades this weekend!

tw · 08-25-2011, 12:51 AM

A New Orleans concern exists if a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane hits Nassau County (Long Island). The resulting tidal surge (due to counter-clockwise winds) would drive water up a funnel that feeds the Hudson and Raritan Rivers. A ten foot surge means massive flooding of NYC tunnels and other critical infrastructure.

New Jersey has not suffered a hurricane hit in over 100 years. That coastline is also at great risk.

Last track put Irene pointed towards Suffolk County (Sag Harbor or the Hamptons). A previous 'cane on that track in 1938 drove a massive flood into all major cities in Rhode Island.

Griff · 08-25-2011, 06:51 AM

Did they name them back then? Old timers talk about roofs lost but I think they mean Hazel in '54.

I investigated a glow on the horizon last night. It did turn out to be a gas flare, which begs the question how would that handle hurricane force winds...?

Spexxvet · 08-25-2011, 10:02 AM

I was at Harvey's lake when Ivan (2004) passed through. The Susquehanna at Tunkhannock was almost to the bottom of the 309 bridge and man-hole covers were blown off in Wilkes Barre.

I also remember Agnes (1972 - was tent camping outside of Avalon, NJ), Floyd (1999 caused 6 deaths in PA) , and Gloria (1985) effecting PA/NJ.

07-17-2011, 06:02 PM	#1
tw Read? I only know how to write. Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 11,933	Er' She Blows Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irene Jose Katia Lee Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney are tropical storms for this year. Arlene already happened in late June. Made landfall in southern TX and Northern Mexico where rain was welcome due to drought. A second tropical depression just formed north of Bermuda. And not expected to be serious. More interesting is the difference from last year. So far storm tracks have been more northerly. Last year, all storms remained south. Unusually warm air during the spring resulted in a most violent tornado season. But the Gulf and Caribbean have not been unusually warm. Only about 28 degrees. Meaning that any early season hurricanes are unlikely to be violent. Predictions are for 16 names storms. 9 to become hurricanes. 5 to be severe. And a 72% chance of at least one category 3 or higher hurricane striking the US mainland. This is traditionally only 52%. Predictions from the past few years have been extraordinarily accurate. The eastern Pacific already had an above normal two hurricanes in June. One was a category four. As usual, it headed for San Diego only to peter out off Baja.

07-17-2011, 11:18 PM	#2
Clodfobble UNDER CONDITIONAL MITIGATION Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 20,012	Admit it: danger aside, you really like it when a hurricane makes landfall, don't you? __________________ My book My other book My spirit animal

07-19-2011, 09:33 PM	#3
GunMaster357 Professor Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Brest (FRANCE) Posts: 1,837	Like a woman, it comes hot and wet and get away taking the car and house. __________________ "War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." - Ambrose Bierce

08-24-2011, 08:01 PM	#12
Griff still says videotape Join Date: Feb 2001 Posts: 26,813	Yikes! It's not every day you see a hurricane forecast cone pointed into the Northeast. In fact, the concern among meteorologists is high. National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read: "We are very concerned with what's going to happen in New England. The benchmark is the 1938 hurricane. I am very concerned with what will happen there." The potential is real for the strongest hurricane hit on the Northeast in at least a couple decades this weekend! __________________ If you would only recognize that life is hard, things would be so much easier for you. - Louis D. Brandeis

08-25-2011, 12:51 AM	#13
tw Read? I only know how to write. Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 11,933	A New Orleans concern exists if a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane hits Nassau County (Long Island). The resulting tidal surge (due to counter-clockwise winds) would drive water up a funnel that feeds the Hudson and Raritan Rivers. A ten foot surge means massive flooding of NYC tunnels and other critical infrastructure. New Jersey has not suffered a hurricane hit in over 100 years. That coastline is also at great risk. Last track put Irene pointed towards Suffolk County (Sag Harbor or the Hamptons). A previous 'cane on that track in 1938 drove a massive flood into all major cities in Rhode Island. Last edited by tw; 08-25-2011 at 12:59 AM.

07-20-2011, 11:10 AM	#5
SamIam Registered User Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Not here Posts: 2,655	I'm waiting for Ophelia. Never knew the weather service was so literary.

07-20-2011, 05:49 PM	#7
SamIam Registered User Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Not here Posts: 2,655	Ophelia came from Denmark, as I recall. This global warming thing is really getting out of hand when hurricanes start to form in the North Sea.

07-22-2011, 08:02 AM	#8
tw Read? I only know how to write. Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 11,933	Cindy popped up unexpectedly in the North Atlantic due east of Nova Scotia. Destination: UK. Bret is chasing her.

07-31-2011, 09:19 PM	#9
tw Read? I only know how to write. Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 11,933	Fairly likely that tropical storm Emily will strike the US somewhere in the Gulf in the next seven days. The Gulf of Mexico is not so warm this year (except some isolated spots on the western FL coast). If the Gulf does not heat up quickly, Emily is unlikely to be a serious hurricane. And may be quite welcome to a coastline suffering a drought.

08-22-2011, 10:09 AM	#10
tw Read? I only know how to write. Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 11,933	Its been a boring 'cane season this year since so many storms took a beeline for the UK or disintegrated over the Yucatan Peninsula. Even Emily took a right turn as it was getting interesting. The Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic are cooler this year. Most of the warm water remains on both sides of Florida. Irene hit Puerto Rico and intensified into the first hurricane. Its projected track is across the warmest waters that only exist off both sides of Florida. That makes it a storm worth watching since its track on either side of FL can make is a serious problem starting Friday. Especially if it tracks west of FL. The Cellar might appreciate that rain next week to wash mud off of UT's car.

08-25-2011, 06:51 AM	#14
Griff still says videotape Join Date: Feb 2001 Posts: 26,813	Did they name them back then? Old timers talk about roofs lost but I think they mean Hazel in '54. I investigated a glow on the horizon last night. It did turn out to be a gas flare, which begs the question how would that handle hurricane force winds...? __________________ If you would only recognize that life is hard, things would be so much easier for you. - Louis D. Brandeis

08-25-2011, 10:02 AM	#15
Spexxvet Makes some feel uncomfortable Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 10,346	I was at Harvey's lake when Ivan (2004) passed through. The Susquehanna at Tunkhannock was almost to the bottom of the 309 bridge and man-hole covers were blown off in Wilkes Barre. I also remember Agnes (1972 - was tent camping outside of Avalon, NJ), Floyd (1999 caused 6 deaths in PA) , and Gloria (1985) effecting PA/NJ. __________________ "I'm certainly free, nay compelled, to spread the gospel of Spex. " - xoxoxoBruce

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