Exit Strategy

[Torrere]

Today, I've read three articles which have compared -- mostly in passing -- the American excursion in Iraq to the Athenian excursion in Syracuse during the Poleponnesian War. During an interlude in the war against Sparta, Athens decided to conquer Sicily and take control of their wealth in grains. The Athenians sent a massive fleet against Syracuse, but soon became mired in a stalemate. Eventually, the Syracusans (with the help of new-found Spartan friends) trapped the Athenians in the harbor of Syracuse and routed them.

Modern history suggests that our current deadlock in Iraq will continue until we either give up (Vietnam, Boer War), appease the people's demands and supplant the need for the guerillas (Malaya), or finally defeat the guerillas (usually at a price of ten-soldiers-per-guerilla).

I think that existing the plans aren't going to be enough to get us out successfully. It looks like Bush's exit strategy is to give nominal power to an Iraqi government, staffed with American advisors and supported by the American military which would slowly Vietn^H^H^H^H^H^H become the legitimate Iraqi government. Kucinich's plan is to insert the United Nations as a skirmish guard while we withdraw: hand over political control to the UN and apologize. One idea that I've had is to feed power to an Anti-American Iraqi cleric (a la al-Sadr) until they control a substantial portion of Iraq. Hand over nominal power to them and run away, hoping that central power will coalesce under someone.

The Iraqi insurgency isn't going away, and I don't know how we're going to, but we're going to have to sometime. I suspect that my plan is a terrible way to go about it -- anyone have better ideas? UT? tw?

[tw]

We are not sitting in a stable or comfortable position. Simply a Fatwah from a Grand Ayatollah could bring the cards all crashing down. We are becoming more and more indebted to Ayatollah Sistani - and yet no American has ever even met the man. For example, he ordered no American troops to attack Najaf - where Al Sayd is said to be located. Notice that we will do as he says (at least if smarter military commanders are in charge).

Our position is really that tenuous. Based upon a clear timeline of events, we will have to keep increasing troops in Iraq - by a military already repeatedly extending tours of duty far beyond what anyone intended and what the military can maintain over long term. There are no safe roads in Shi'ite or Sunni Iraq. It has become that bad.

IOW we are slowly getting boxed in by events. No hope now of even reconstituting the Iraqi military and police with people who have now heart and soul of the insurgents. Even the so called Iraqi army defected or ran when confronted by the latest uprisings - just like the S Vietnamese army.

Having so messed things up, by claiming Iraq as if it was some kind of prize, even the UN will not accept offers of help without major George Jr concessions. Concessions must be so great that insurgents will consider it a victory and welcome the UN.

Currently there is no exit strategy just as there was no other acceptable exit strategy in Somolia - other than what Clinton did.

Now for the dangerous part. Summer and the hot tempers associated are coming. We cannot even maintain Saddam's levels of electricity. However 6 (or was it 8) gas turbine generators are being installed. OK. But will there be fuel available to keep these turbines running over the summer. Yes we can protect the turbines. But we cannot even maintain a pipeline from the Kurdish north into Turkey. Pipeline still has not delivered any oil. How then will we maintain fuel to turbines via Sunni controlled lands?

When the electricity goes out, who does the little Iraqi blame? Not the insurgent who takes out the electricity. He blames the electric company - in this case called the United States. It is so easy to recruit when the big, bad US cannot even maintain electricity when most needed - a hot summer. Again, we are exposed in another no win situation with no clear solution and plenty of downside. All that remains to happen is the 5 o'clock follies.

Upside - pray like hell that the Grand Ayatollahs stay friendly. We are down to that few friends of power in country - and a large block of neutrals who could easily be converted into insurgents.

Our best hope is to get out as soon as possible - and that will mean major concessions. George Jr will never make those concessions. In fact, in his last press conference, he could not even admit to a single mistake after standing for a full embarrassing moment without a single idea. Is that arrogence? Maybe. But that means he (and clearly his power brokers Cheney, Rumsfeld, Perl, Wolfowich, Rice, Rove, Armitage, etc) will never make the necessary concessions to get out of Iraq.

Somehow this president acutally thinks the current military situation will resolve itself. Like in VietNam, the president remains naively attached to a military solution.

Bottom line, wean ourselves of our dependency on foreign oil. Sooner or later, we are going to have to do this, anyhow. This is pragmatism, not tree hugging. Oil is a limited commodity. One day, there will be no more of it. No more dinosaurs are currently giving their lives to become fuel for our power plants and automobiles. One of the greatest atrocities the Reagan administration committed was to dismantle our alternative fuels program. If we weren't so dependent on Middle Eastern oil, none of this crap would have happened. The Brits and Palestinians could have duked it out over the creation of Israel and the US could have remained oblivious to the entire Middle East problem.

[Undertoad]

You called me out so I feel like I should have a response here. But I doubt I have enough good information to figure it out.

The Iraqi bloggers give you a good idea of how their own neighborhoods are, and how they feel, but they don't give a good view of the big picture.

But I do think that, having started this thing, it's totally critical to see it through and to do everything possible to nation-build the country that the majority of Iraqis want it to be, and to not allow it to become a fascist regime again. (Kerry agrees BTW) If it took the deaths of 5,000 troops, that would be too much, but it shouldn't take that.

The UN can't help and anyone who wants to send them in is posturing, including the President. The UN were the first to pack up and leave at the first sign of difficulty. They could have shown resolve and hardened their facilities but instead they packed up and ran. The UN was responsible for the corrupt oil-for-food program and the average Iraqi does not have a good opinion of the UN right now.

[elSicomoro]

Originally posted by Undertoad
But I do think that, having started this thing, it's totally critical to see it through and to do everything possible to nation-build the country that the majority of Iraqis want it to be, and to not allow it to become a fascist regime again. (Kerry agrees BTW) If it took the deaths of 5,000 troops, that would be too much, but it shouldn't take that.

And if they choose a theocracy?

The UN can't help and anyone who wants to send them in is posturing, including the President. The UN were the first to pack up and leave at the first sign of difficulty. They could have shown resolve and hardened their facilities but instead they packed up and ran. The UN was responsible for the corrupt oil-for-food program and the average Iraqi does not have a good opinion of the UN right now.

The UN left because COW couldn't guarantee they'd be safe. The UN doesn't fight wars; they're a clean up crew...remember Bosnia?

I don't see the Iraqis liking anyone else that comes in...b/c they want to be left alone. But better the UN than the US...the UN isn't hated quite as much as we are.

The UN was responsible for the oil-for-food program, but not responsible for the leader that handled the money. I saw the French bitch about ending it, but no one demanding true accountability of the program, including the fine folks at The United States of America, Inc.

[tw]

Originally posted by Undertoad
The UN can't help and anyone who wants to send them in is posturing, including the President. The UN were the first to pack up and leave at the first sign of difficulty. They could have shown resolve and hardened their facilities but instead they packed up and ran. The UN was responsible for the corrupt oil-for-food program and the average Iraqi does not have a good opinion of the UN right now.

You don't play every hand in poker. When it becomes clear that there will never be a winning hand - when the Iraqi situation will only get worse if dominated by the George Jr administration, then a smart UN got out. The UN entered on the hope that they would take over. But a George Jr administration treated Iraq as some kind of prize. The UN would contribute, but only as told how by George Jr. The final act - the time to fold and leave the table - is when the UN did leave.

The UN (or remotely possible the Pan-Arab League) is America's only hope to get out of Iraq - short of leaving just like in Somolia. At least in Somolia, we did not create the problem; only tried to fix it. But to get the UN in, the US must make concessions so great as to make the Iraqis feel they have achieved a great victory. Clearly a George Jr who fears to admit to a single mistake in his press conference also cannot admit defeat in Iraq. He must appear to be defeated so that Iraqis will welcome UN assistance or a Pan-Arab rebuilding army. Not even the other Arab nations want to touch the mess that George Jr created. Created even against the advise of virtually every nation in this world.

Its just not going to happen. The president is - bottom line - lying again when he made overtures to UN assistance. But then look at his people. They even entered office this thinking in terms of cold war defense systems. His staff is very introverted. They don't even hire from the outside. More than making a mistake, they most fear anyone who would not be loyal. Especially someone who would put American interests before George Jr administration interests. This comment being made by too many retired military people, too many former White House staffers, and even in secret interviews for the current Bob Woodward book.

Same mentality also found in the Richard Nixon administration.

The UN will not come back to a poker table that has been so poisoned by George Jr. And yes, so poisoned that the US has now closed both major supply highways into Baghdad because virtually every convoy was attacked multiple times AND many bridges are now gone. We did not even give the troops enough men to protect the bridges. Baghdad troops are now on MREs and airlifted water.

BTW, did we mention that Afghanistan was never solved because George Jr also starved that venture of resources to get bin Laden. We sent to Afghanistan less troops than there are police in NYC - and would not even deploy them. No wonder bin Ladne runs free. George Jr let him get away.

The original post was about Athens attack on Syracuse. However latest reports from Iraq sound more like early days of the French as they moved out to occupy Diem Bien Phu. Amazing that an army cannot even defend its own convoys in open desert and flat farmland. This is not even jungle. Still so many locals hate Americans as to routinely attack every single convoy. Where is the light at the end of this tunnel? Notice that I choose not to make the mistakes of VietNam. I continue to cite lessons of history - as Torrere also does with some heavy reading in his original citations.

Kudos to Torrere for his URLs. Best accounting of Syracuse I have ever read. Syracuse marked the end of Athens as a world power. Athens then had to surrender to Sparta and other Greek city states. However what followed after that in Athens are milestones to our history.

[richlevy]

Originally posted by tw
The UN will not come back to a poker table that has been so poisoned by George Jr. And yes, so poisoned that the US has now closed major supply highways into Baghdad because virtually every convoy was attacked multiple times AND many bridges are now gone. We did not even give the troops enough men to protect the bridges. Baghdad troops are now on MREs and airlifted water.

I agree. The Bush administration is going to have to talk fast in order to get the UN to come aboard. If, for example, France asked for UN help in Algiers when they had a similar mess, and asked again right around election time, would the US really want to commit troops to save someones political ass?

My guess is that the UN is going to hold off on a commitment until after the election. GWB has lost too much international goodwill to be able to get any kind of commitment without making a public deal which would end his political career anyway. Noone would except a secret deal from him since there is a 50/50 chance he will not be president next year, and noone trusts him anyway, no matter how many bibles he swears on.

June 30th or not, I would be stunned if the UN made a major commitment before November. We really have burned many of our bridges diplomatically. The conservative media can let Bush change his story on the reasons for the war, and his most ardent supporters can put their fingers in their ears like their White House hero and tune out any voices of dissent. However, the rest of the world isn't buying any of it and will not do the heavy lifting to shore up Iraq as a monument to GWB and his 'vulcans'.

I'm really curious as to who Kerry will pick as Secretary of State. That person is going to have the hardest and easiest job of anyone around. Hard because their is a lot of damage to fix. Easy because if it becomes clear that Kerry will actually listen to this person and not leave him out in the cold to listen to a bunch of neocon nut jobs, our allies will be rushing all over themselves to help patch things up.

I think Colin Powell is a good man. And I think he had the right experience for the job. But it seems obvious that he is left to try patching up the great gaping holes Bush and friends have left in foreign relations with the diplomatic equivalent of a putty knife. I cannot believe that he has not accurately assessed the fact that noone will ever admit that a mistake has been made, which might be the sole requirement for this administration to get any significant help.

He could probably serve the public best by publically resigning, preferably close to November, and letting the Bush administration sink beneath the waves, in the hope that a Kerry presidency will be an improvement.

[Undertoad]

Right, riiiiight. You guys are absolutely right. For the UN, it is more important to play international politics than to address the desperate needs of the Iraqi people.

Because for the UN, it doesn't really matter whether they wind up a democracy, a theocracy (which the majority of Iraqis do not want) or under the control of 2 madman sons, as long as we get the diplomacy right.

Does it matter to you?

[elSicomoro]

Originally posted by Undertoad
Right, riiiiight. You guys are absolutely right. For the UN, it is more important to play international politics than to address the desperate needs of the Iraqi people.

I think the UN would be happy to go back in if they knew they would be relatively safe.

a theocracy (which the majority of Iraqis do not want)

Which really doesn't mean shit when you have nutjobs like Sadr and Sistani in the mix.

[tw]

Originally posted by sycamore
Which really doesn't mean shit when you have nutjobs like Sadr and Sistani in the mix.

Don't make wild assumptions about Sistani. He is playing this game better than anyone in-country. Right now the US is about to be completely indebted to him. He can turn off or let loose Sadr as he pleases. It is a shame our president is not as smart. But then in the 60 Minutes interview with Bob Woodward, George Jr talks so much like Richard Nixon - about all those smart elitists out there. Makes one sort of forget that George Jr is suppose to be a Yale graduate and has a graduate degree.

Lose Sistani's support and all hell breaks loose against Americans. A situation so bad that the Spanish today ordered an immediate removal of all troops from Iraq. They can do that. Unlike Ukraine, Spain is not there due to political blackmail.

Iraq is that tenuous. The mental midget president has even played right into being completely indebted to Ayatollah Sistani - currently the smartest and most sane man in-country.

[elSicomoro]

Originally posted by tw
Right now the US is about to be completely indebted to him. He can turn off or let loose Sadr as he pleases.

Right...nutjob.

[Undertoad]

The 60 Minutes Woodward interview was interesting. The way Woodward described it, it was almost as if Bush forgot he was talking to a reporter when he was talking to Woodward.

The operative words being "as if"

[richlevy]

Originally posted by Undertoad
The 60 Minutes Woodward interview was interesting. The way Woodward described it, it was almost as if Bush forgot he was talking to a reporter when he was talking to Woodward.

The operative words being "as if"

The operative words being 'Bush forgot".

[russotto]

Originally posted by marichiko
Bottom line, wean ourselves of our dependency on foreign oil.

So you support offshore oil drilling, strip-mining, Alaskan oil drilling, and nuclear power?

Or does this "weaning" involve shivering in the dark?

[Troubleshooter]

Originally posted by russotto


So you support offshore oil drilling, strip-mining, Alaskan oil drilling, and nuclear power?

Or does this "weaning" involve shivering in the dark?

Offshore drilling? Yes. Alaskan Drilling? Yes. Nuclear power? Yes. Strip mining? No.

There are other options and avenues of research out there. Taken as a whole they can go a long way towards reducing our dependince on fossil fuels.

Hydrogen fuels (both as a combustible as well as fuel cells), underwater turbines, offshore wind farms.

It's not necessary to solve the problem in on fell swoop, but steps do need to be taken.