Election Predictions

Radar · 11-01-2004, 10:53 AM

Here's the way I see it...

The final electoral vote totals will be as follows:

George W. Bush (GWB):

Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 10
Arkansas - 6
Colorado - 9
Florida - 27
Georgia - 15
Idaho - 4
Indiana - 11
Iowa - 7
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 6
Louisiana - 9
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nebraska - 5
Nevada - 5
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Oklahoma - 7
South Carolina - 6
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 34
Utah - 5
Virginia - 13
West Virginia - 5
Wyoming - 3

TOTAL = 261

John F. Kerry (JFK):

California - 55
Connecticut - 7
District of Columbia - 3
Delaware - 3
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
New Hampshire - 4
New Jersey - 15
New Mexico - 5
New York - 31
Ohio - 20
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Washington - 11
Wisconsin - 10

TOTAL = 277

The vote in Colorado will be split 6-3 in favor of GWB so the adjusted
totals are:

Bush = 258
Kerry = 280

Radar · 11-01-2004, 10:56 AM

I also predict it will take 2 weeks or more to settle all the disputes among the lawyers and recounts in all the close states, with some serious funny business reported at polling places in Florida, and at all the locations with electronic voting machines without a paper trail.

wolf · 11-01-2004, 12:48 PM

I have been occasionally checking various psychic sites for information regarding the race. Everybody is hedging their bets, indicating it's too close to call, that there is going to be a lot of contention, etc.

No shit. I get that on the evening news. From a psychic, I want something more, um ... predictive, dammit.

Then I found this guy. I was checking out the magazine for another reason. I've actually met Jacob, he's a sweet old guy, and the only psychic I've seen that makes an actual pick.

Of course he's not technically a psychic. He's an astrologer.

Kitsune · 11-01-2004, 12:55 PM

I'll see your "two weeks" and up you one more.

11-01-2004, 01:12 PM

I think Kerry will win in the first round, but then the 6,000 voters on Colorado's felon list will all have their votes invalidated, making Bush the winner after weeks of post elections escapades behind the scenes.

BTW, Wolf, speaking of psychics, the virtual I Ching http://www.virtualiching.com/visitor...chstarsvis.php
has Kerry winning with the hexagram for "Biting Through" or "Thunder."

Radar · 11-01-2004, 01:43 PM

Bush will win Colorado....BUT.....In Colorado they have a ballot initiative to split the state's electoral votes based on the percentage of people who vote for a particular candidate. This will make Colorado the third state to do this.

It looks very much like this will pass and here's the best part, IT APPLIES TO THIS ELECTION!! This means that Bush won't get the full 9 electoral votes for Colorado. It could be a 5-4 split or a 6-3 split. In either case, Bush will lose electoral votes and Kerry will gain some that he otherwise wouldn't have gotten.

Happy Monkey · 11-01-2004, 01:47 PM

Does it look like that will pass? Last I heard (a week or two ago), it wasn't too popular.

russotto · 11-01-2004, 03:14 PM

I'm not going to do the breakdown, but it will be Bush by a comfortable electoral margin. His people will talk about "landslide", but that will be overdone. The popular vote will be closer, but in favor of Bush by a definite margin.

Radar · 11-01-2004, 03:19 PM

Quote:

I'll see your "two weeks" and up you one more.

Too rich for my blood.

Quote:

I'm not going to do the breakdown, but it will be Bush by a comfortable electoral margin. His people will talk about "landslide", but that will be overdone. The popular vote will be closer, but in favor of Bush by a definite margin

That, I wouldn't mind having a piece of. Bush will lose the popular vote by more than 10 million votes.

11-01-2004, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey

Does it look like that will pass? Last I heard (a week or two ago), it wasn't too popular.

Here's the sccop on Colorado as presented by "USA Today" : http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...o-voters_x.htm

I feel honored that my state may end up this election's Florida. And only a couple of months ago I thought Colorado was dull, boring, and glum. It may still be glum, but certainly not dull and boring!

glatt · 11-01-2004, 04:14 PM

So your vote may actually count, Marichko. Are you going to vote?

I wish I had a voice.

Happy Monkey · 11-01-2004, 04:22 PM

Tell me about it. At least I get to vote for a guy I know for School Board.

warch · 11-01-2004, 04:35 PM

I still remember the first time one of my guys won.....Clinton in 1992. I voted but wasnt counting on it, never happened before, just went out for BBQ and hurray! They had happy returns on the bar TV. So its my ritual. Tomorrow, its vote, work, dont fret and go out for BBQ.

11-01-2004, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glatt

So your vote may actually count, Marichko. Are you going to vote?

I wish I had a voice.

Of course, I'm going to vote! Even if Colorado weren't being so hotly contended for in the presidential race, there are plenty of local candidates I care about and for whom I DO believe every vote matters!

Radar · 11-01-2004, 05:23 PM

I wish all the states would split their electoral votes proportionally according to the popular vote of that state. It would mean we'd virtually eliminate the possibility of one man getting more votes by American citizens but still losing the election. I wish we'd also have runoff voting. You vote for who you'd rather have first, second, and third in that order, and the one with the most votes wins. This would give third parties a real chance.

11-01-2004, 10:53 AM	#1
Radar Constitutional Scholar Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Ocala, FL Posts: 4,006	Election Predictions Here's the way I see it... The final electoral vote totals will be as follows: George W. Bush (GWB): Alabama - 9 Alaska - 3 Arizona - 10 Arkansas - 6 Colorado - 9 Florida - 27 Georgia - 15 Idaho - 4 Indiana - 11 Iowa - 7 Kansas - 6 Kentucky - 6 Louisiana - 9 Mississippi - 6 Missouri - 11 Montana - 3 Nebraska - 5 Nevada - 5 North Carolina - 15 North Dakota - 3 Oklahoma - 7 South Carolina - 6 South Dakota - 3 Tennessee - 11 Texas - 34 Utah - 5 Virginia - 13 West Virginia - 5 Wyoming - 3 TOTAL = 261 John F. Kerry (JFK): California - 55 Connecticut - 7 District of Columbia - 3 Delaware - 3 Hawaii - 4 Illinois - 21 Maine - 4 Maryland - 10 Massachusetts - 12 Michigan - 17 Minnesota - 10 New Hampshire - 4 New Jersey - 15 New Mexico - 5 New York - 31 Ohio - 20 Oregon - 7 Pennsylvania - 21 Rhode Island - 4 Vermont - 3 Washington - 11 Wisconsin - 10 TOTAL = 277 The vote in Colorado will be split 6-3 in favor of GWB so the adjusted totals are: Bush = 258 Kerry = 280 __________________ "I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. My idea is that these two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death." - George Carlin

11-01-2004, 10:56 AM	#2
Radar Constitutional Scholar Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Ocala, FL Posts: 4,006	I also predict it will take 2 weeks or more to settle all the disputes among the lawyers and recounts in all the close states, with some serious funny business reported at polling places in Florida, and at all the locations with electronic voting machines without a paper trail. __________________ "I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. My idea is that these two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death." - George Carlin

11-01-2004, 12:48 PM	#3
wolf lobber of scimitars Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Phila Burbs Posts: 20,774	I have been occasionally checking various psychic sites for information regarding the race. Everybody is hedging their bets, indicating it's too close to call, that there is going to be a lot of contention, etc. No shit. I get that on the evening news. From a psychic, I want something more, um ... predictive, dammit. Then I found this guy. I was checking out the magazine for another reason. I've actually met Jacob, he's a sweet old guy, and the only psychic I've seen that makes an actual pick. Of course he's not technically a psychic. He's an astrologer. __________________ wolf eht htiw og "Conspiracies are the norm, not the exception." --G. Edward Griffin The Creature from Jekyll Island High Priestess of the Church of the Whale Penis

11-01-2004, 01:12 PM	#5
marichiko Guest Posts: n/a	I think Kerry will win in the first round, but then the 6,000 voters on Colorado's felon list will all have their votes invalidated, making Bush the winner after weeks of post elections escapades behind the scenes. BTW, Wolf, speaking of psychics, the virtual I Ching http://www.virtualiching.com/visitor...chstarsvis.php has Kerry winning with the hexagram for "Biting Through" or "Thunder." Last edited by marichiko; 11-01-2004 at 01:20 PM.

11-01-2004, 01:43 PM	#6
Radar Constitutional Scholar Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Ocala, FL Posts: 4,006	Bush will win Colorado....BUT.....In Colorado they have a ballot initiative to split the state's electoral votes based on the percentage of people who vote for a particular candidate. This will make Colorado the third state to do this. It looks very much like this will pass and here's the best part, IT APPLIES TO THIS ELECTION!! This means that Bush won't get the full 9 electoral votes for Colorado. It could be a 5-4 split or a 6-3 split. In either case, Bush will lose electoral votes and Kerry will gain some that he otherwise wouldn't have gotten. __________________ "I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. My idea is that these two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death." - George Carlin

11-01-2004, 12:55 PM	#4
Kitsune still eats dirt Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 3,031	I'll see your "two weeks" and up you one more.

11-01-2004, 01:47 PM	#7
Happy Monkey I think this line's mostly filler. Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: DC Posts: 13,575	Does it look like that will pass? Last I heard (a week or two ago), it wasn't too popular. __________________ _________________ \|...............\| We live in the nick of times. \| Len 17, Wid 3 \| \|_______________\| [pics]

11-01-2004, 03:14 PM	#8
russotto Professor Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 1,788	Bush, comfortably I'm not going to do the breakdown, but it will be Bush by a comfortable electoral margin. His people will talk about "landslide", but that will be overdone. The popular vote will be closer, but in favor of Bush by a definite margin.

11-01-2004, 04:14 PM	#11
glatt ™ Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Arlington, VA Posts: 27,717	So your vote may actually count, Marichko. Are you going to vote? I wish I had a voice.

11-01-2004, 04:22 PM	#12
Happy Monkey I think this line's mostly filler. Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: DC Posts: 13,575	Tell me about it. At least I get to vote for a guy I know for School Board. __________________ _________________ \|...............\| We live in the nick of times. \| Len 17, Wid 3 \| \|_______________\| [pics]

11-01-2004, 04:35 PM	#13
warch lurkin old school Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Minnesota Posts: 2,796	I still remember the first time one of my guys won.....Clinton in 1992. I voted but wasnt counting on it, never happened before, just went out for BBQ and hurray! They had happy returns on the bar TV. So its my ritual. Tomorrow, its vote, work, dont fret and go out for BBQ.

11-01-2004, 05:23 PM	#15
Radar Constitutional Scholar Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Ocala, FL Posts: 4,006	I wish all the states would split their electoral votes proportionally according to the popular vote of that state. It would mean we'd virtually eliminate the possibility of one man getting more votes by American citizens but still losing the election. I wish we'd also have runoff voting. You vote for who you'd rather have first, second, and third in that order, and the one with the most votes wins. This would give third parties a real chance. __________________ "I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. My idea is that these two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death." - George Carlin

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