Er' She Blows

[tw]

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey
Irene Jose Katia Lee Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe
Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
are tropical storms for this year.

Arlene already happened in late June. Made landfall in southern TX and Northern Mexico where rain was welcome due to drought.

A second tropical depression just formed north of Bermuda. And not expected to be serious. More interesting is the difference from last year. So far storm tracks have been more northerly. Last year, all storms remained south.

Unusually warm air during the spring resulted in a most violent tornado season. But the Gulf and Caribbean have not been unusually warm. Only about 28 degrees. Meaning that any early season hurricanes are unlikely to be violent.

Predictions are for 16 names storms. 9 to become hurricanes. 5 to be severe. And a 72% chance of at least one category 3 or higher hurricane striking the US mainland. This is traditionally only 52%. Predictions from the past few years have been extraordinarily accurate.

The eastern Pacific already had an above normal two hurricanes in June. One was a category four. As usual, it headed for San Diego only to peter out off Baja.

[Clodfobble]

Admit it: danger aside, you really like it when a hurricane makes landfall, don't you?

[Sundae]

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

Admit it: danger aside, you really like it when a hurricane makes landfall, don't you?

Um, sorry, but YES.

Of course I deplore any loss of life or injury and the damage to livelihoods.
But I live in a protected Vale almost like fairy-story-land.
The closest I ever got to extreme weather growing up was reading A High Wind In Jamaica.

(Yes, the bit with the crocodile made me melt a little too).

[Griff]

Yikes!
It's not every day you see a hurricane forecast cone pointed into the Northeast.

In fact, the concern among meteorologists is high. National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read: "We are very concerned with what's going to happen in New England. The benchmark is the 1938 hurricane. I am very concerned with what will happen there."

The potential is real for the strongest hurricane hit on the Northeast in at least a couple decades this weekend!

[tw]

A New Orleans concern exists if a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane hits Nassau County (Long Island). The resulting tidal surge (due to counter-clockwise winds) would drive water up a funnel that feeds the Hudson and Raritan Rivers. A ten foot surge means massive flooding of NYC tunnels and other critical infrastructure.

New Jersey has not suffered a hurricane hit in over 100 years. That coastline is also at great risk.

Last track put Irene pointed towards Suffolk County (Sag Harbor or the Hamptons). A previous 'cane on that track in 1938 drove a massive flood into all major cities in Rhode Island.

[Griff]

Did they name them back then? Old timers talk about roofs lost but I think they mean Hazel in '54.

I investigated a glow on the horizon last night. It did turn out to be a gas flare, which begs the question how would that handle hurricane force winds...?

[GunMaster357]

Like a woman, it comes hot and wet and get away taking the car and house.

[tw]

Originally Posted by GunMaster357

Like a woman, it comes hot and wet and get away taking the car and house.

Don't worry about Bret. He's staying safely away. Cindy is next. Like a woman ...

[SamIam]

I'm waiting for Ophelia. Never knew the weather service was so literary.

[tw]

Originally Posted by SamIam

Never knew the weather service was so literary.

A west coast hurricane may be named Xina. Such hurricanes do not come from the Amazon.

[SamIam]

Ophelia came from Denmark, as I recall. This global warming thing is really getting out of hand when hurricanes start to form in the North Sea.

[classicman]

I saw pics from my parents as children from that Hurricane.
We were actually looking at some of them a couple weeks ago when my nieces were in town.

[tw]

Residents in east coast US states should be very concerned. Even neighbors of the cellar should be taking precautions. Irene has taken a more western path. Got into warmer water. The new projection puts it atop the entire Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts. That would mean less storm power to harm NYC. And destructive winds even in Pennsylvania.

East coast Americans should have their preparations completely by Friday night (NC) or Saturday (NJ) in part because a new projection says this storm will also move much slower; do more damage. This one should not be taken lightly. I don't think I have seen a more threatening storm on the so unprepared parts of the east coast in 30 years. NJ and NYC are very vulnerable due to complacency. NJ has not had a hurricane in over 100 years.

These things usually move east at the last moment. But informed residents learn you must prepare for seven to not be harmed by the eigth.

[Undertoad]

Predictions have moved a little west, Delaware (home of tax-free shopping, and the Cellar) and south New Jersey are now more in the target for extended tropical force winds. Jersey shore may see >60 MPH winds.

[tw]

Numerous friends have homes on the barrier Islands of Cape May County. Already traffic has been heavy outgoing on the Garden State Parkway. None were able to get to their homes; to prepare them for a blow. Probably all barrier islands will be flooded. Flooding will probably be at least 6 feet higher than any previous storm has done.

Barrier island towns will be blocking incoming access on Friday. Orders are to evacuate the county. No exceptions for anyone east of Route 9. That will take 36 hours.

Some maps. Cape May County is from Cape May to Ocean City and Woodbine. The nearest safe evacuation locations are in Vineland and Millville. Everything south and east of that has flood risks.
[Cape May County

Examples of responses from other counties.

Rehoboth Beach, Dewey Beach, and Fenwick Island are part of Sussex County, Delaware. This county has not been taking the storm as seriously. Did not call for a mandatory evacuation until late Thursday night. Still have not defined evacuation centers. Most of the outgoing traffic only has three roads - Routes 1, 28, or 54.
Map of Sussex County

Sea Bright NJ is the most northern of NJ barrier island towns and part of Monmouth County. Located just across from the Atlantic Highlands and Rumson (home of Bruce Springsteen). Residents need only go to Atlantic highlands to be 100 feet above the water. Most of the town is dependent on a 30 foot high rock seawall that has been routinely overwashed during major storms. Sea Bright will flood. However a storm that passes off shore will drive a major tidal surge into a box that include NYC, Lower NY Bay, the Raritan River, and Sandy Hook Bay. Flooding should back up into rivers behind Sea Bright. That can mean flooding as far west of Rumson as in Red Bank. Therefore the nearest evacuation centers are even farther west (inland) of Red Bank and the Garden State Parkway in Holmdel.

Between Cape May and Monmouth Counties are the home of New Yorkers pretending to be Jersey Shore residents (ie Snookie). Ocean County barrier islands include Seaside Heights, Surf City, and Barnegat. This county has no mandatory evacuations except for the barrier islands after Friday. No evacuation centers have been announced. This county appears to be least concerned.

Some landmarks and names to better understand future news reports on what may or may not be a catastrophic storm.