Rise in California temperatures likely to affect crops

bluesdave · 12-12-2006, 05:48 PM

LIVERMORE, Calif. — Increasing temperatures in California during the next 45 years could negatively affect the amount of almonds, walnuts, oranges, avocados and table grapes that Americans put on their tables.

According to new research in the journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, production losses in some of California’s most popular crops could be as high as 40 percent by mid-century.

Read the full story here.

Aliantha · 12-12-2006, 05:52 PM

Of course, as farmers are aware of this possible problem, they could start looking into hardier strains for those particular fruits etc...or they could just leave it then cry poor when what has been predicted occures.

barefoot serpent · 12-12-2006, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluesdave

table grapes.

and there are the wine grapes!

bluesdave · 12-12-2006, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aliantha

Of course, as farmers are aware of this possible problem, they could start looking into hardier strains for those particular fruits etc

They do, but that is not always possible. Grapes and avocados have a very long lead time time (up to 10 years), before they start producing reasonable fruit. Also it is not as simple as finding a hardier strain when you are growing food for the consumer market. It is also not always practical for a farmer to swap from one crop to another. They often have hundreds of thousands of dollars invested in their existing equipment. A new crop often means new equipment (or at least modification of their existing equipment and irrigation systems).

Having said that, there are people who insist on growing crops that are not suitable for their geographic area. They find out the hard way, I'm afraid. The growing of cotton and rice in the driest continent on Earth (Australia), has always irritated me. For those who do not know, rice and cotton require huge quantities of water.

You also have to take into account that many farmers have generations of history (ie. the same family owning the same land for generations). We have to convince them that the climate is changing, and that they must too. After some initial resistance, many come around to more sensible thinking. You can never convince 100% of people.

Aliantha · 12-12-2006, 06:55 PM

All the points you've made seem pretty much common sense to me Blues, but then I've always wondered why people would want to grow cotton around Goondiwindi!

History has proven that new crops can be developed to suit different climates. eg. new wheat strains developed to suit Australian conditions.

Of course to grow a new avoccado tree to maturity can take up to 10yrs. Usually around 7 to produce fruit for grafted trees, which in most cases, farm crops are. It's the same with citrus as you're more than likely aware.

The point I was trying to make is that these farmers have a fair amount of warning and yet, many will choose to ignore the information they've been given and then ask for assistance from the government when their crops fail. Much like farmers in Australia are fond of doing.

Aliantha · 12-12-2006, 06:57 PM

So, do the maths, and it's fairly clear that if farmers start looking now, they should have at least 20yrs up their sleaves even if it takes them 20yrs to find the right crop.

Urbane Guerrilla · 12-12-2006, 08:05 PM

An increase in average temps around Ventura County would mean smaller chances of losing a citrus crop to frost. This may be why I haven't seen as many citrus orchards being ripped out and converted to row crops like strawberries the last couple-three years. Strawberries have still displaced citrus as the number one crop, though. Easier to make a profit, and this county gets three crops a year.

Tonchi · 12-13-2006, 02:24 AM

At the rate we are going here in Fresno County, it will be a non-issue. By that time we will have paved over all the farmland and filled it with hideous overpriced housing developments anyway

xoxoxoBruce · 12-13-2006, 08:53 PM

Meh, as long as there's Soylent Green and Diet Pepsi, were cool.

12-14-2006, 01:06 AM

Global warming... HEY YOU! LOOK OVER HERE!

Urbane Guerrilla · 12-15-2006, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tonchi

At the rate we are going here in Fresno County, it will be a non-issue. By that time we will have paved over all the farmland and filled it with hideous overpriced housing developments anyway

And raising parking lots for the export market. "...And it's twenty tons of top-quality Peruvian asphalt, worth fifteen thousand dollars -- on the street!"

Didn't I just hear of some smartass suggesting a nuclear winter would fix the global warming?

12-12-2006, 05:48 PM	#1
bluesdave Getting older every day Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Australia Posts: 308	Rise in California temperatures likely to affect crops LIVERMORE, Calif. — Increasing temperatures in California during the next 45 years could negatively affect the amount of almonds, walnuts, oranges, avocados and table grapes that Americans put on their tables. According to new research in the journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, production losses in some of California’s most popular crops could be as high as 40 percent by mid-century. Read the full story here. __________________ History is a great teacher; it is a shame that people never learn from it.

12-12-2006, 05:52 PM	#2
Aliantha trying hard to be a better person Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Brisbane, Australia Posts: 16,493	Of course, as farmers are aware of this possible problem, they could start looking into hardier strains for those particular fruits etc...or they could just leave it then cry poor when what has been predicted occures. __________________ Kind words are the music of the world. F. W. Faber

12-12-2006, 06:55 PM	#5
Aliantha trying hard to be a better person Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Brisbane, Australia Posts: 16,493	All the points you've made seem pretty much common sense to me Blues, but then I've always wondered why people would want to grow cotton around Goondiwindi! History has proven that new crops can be developed to suit different climates. eg. new wheat strains developed to suit Australian conditions. Of course to grow a new avoccado tree to maturity can take up to 10yrs. Usually around 7 to produce fruit for grafted trees, which in most cases, farm crops are. It's the same with citrus as you're more than likely aware. The point I was trying to make is that these farmers have a fair amount of warning and yet, many will choose to ignore the information they've been given and then ask for assistance from the government when their crops fail. Much like farmers in Australia are fond of doing. __________________ Kind words are the music of the world. F. W. Faber

12-12-2006, 06:57 PM	#6
Aliantha trying hard to be a better person Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Brisbane, Australia Posts: 16,493	So, do the maths, and it's fairly clear that if farmers start looking now, they should have at least 20yrs up their sleaves even if it takes them 20yrs to find the right crop. __________________ Kind words are the music of the world. F. W. Faber

12-12-2006, 08:05 PM	#7
Urbane Guerrilla Person who doesn't update the user title Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Southern California Posts: 6,674	An increase in average temps around Ventura County would mean smaller chances of losing a citrus crop to frost. This may be why I haven't seen as many citrus orchards being ripped out and converted to row crops like strawberries the last couple-three years. Strawberries have still displaced citrus as the number one crop, though. Easier to make a profit, and this county gets three crops a year. __________________ Wanna stop school shootings? End Gun-Free Zones, of course.

12-13-2006, 02:24 AM	#8
Tonchi Victim of gravity Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Hiding in plain sight Posts: 1,412	At the rate we are going here in Fresno County, it will be a non-issue. By that time we will have paved over all the farmland and filled it with hideous overpriced housing developments anyway __________________ Everything you've ever heard about Fresno is true.

12-13-2006, 08:53 PM	#9
xoxoxoBruce The future is unwritten Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 71,105	Meh, as long as there's Soylent Green and Diet Pepsi, were cool. __________________ The descent of man ~ Nixon, Friedman, Reagan, Trump.

12-14-2006, 01:06 AM	#10
rkzenrage Guest Posts: n/a	Global warming... HEY YOU! LOOK OVER HERE!

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